World Cup draw 2022: How to watch, how it works and what the USMNT will root for

The 2022 World Cup draw is, on one hand, completely random, but on the other — well, consider this: The United States has a roughly 11.8% chance of drawing Portugal, a 0% chance of drawing Germany, and a 30.5% chance of drawing the winner of a single European playoff.

The World Cup draw, in other words, is both refreshingly simple and mind-bogglingly complex. It begins at 7 p.m. in Qatar on Friday, which is noon ET. Fans in the U.S. can watch on Fox Sports 1 and Telemundo, or online.

And when they do, they won't be confused. The U.S. men's national team will learn its three group opponents. The stage for the World Cup, which begins Nov. 21, will be set and the schedule will be released soon thereafter.

But the draw procedure comes with intricacies. Here is a simple explanation, then a breakdown of USMNT probabilities, and then, finally, an analysis of rooting interests.

How the World Cup draw works

The 29 qualified teams and three playoff placeholders have been seeded into four pots of eight. (The U.S. is in Pot 2; the full pots are below.)

The teams will be selected from those pots and placed into eight groups of four, with one team each from Pot 1, 2, 3 and 4 in each group.

That will happen according to the following procedure:

1. Qatar, as the host and in Pot 1, will automatically be placed in Group A.

2. The rest of the Pot 1 teams will be selected one-by-one and placed into Groups B-H

3. The Pot 2 teams will selected one-by-one and placed into Groups A-H — with one caveat:

• No two non-European teams from the same confederation (continent) can share a group. This means, for example, that Uruguay, seeded in Pot 2, cannot be drawn into Brazil's or Argentina's group.

4. Pot 3 teams, and then Pot 4 teams, will be selected according to the same process and principles, plus this one:

• Each group must have at least one but no more than two European teams. This means, for example, that if France and Switzerland are in Group B after two pots have been emptied, neither Serbia nor Poland can go into Group B from Pot 3. It also means that if a group has no European teams after three pots have been emptied, the European playoff placeholder must go into that group.

World Cup draw seeded pots

FIFA on Thursday confirmed the pots, which are based on the latest FIFA rankings:

The playoffs are between:

• Costa Rica and New Zealand

• Peru and either Australia or the United Arab Emirates

• Wales and either Ukraine or Scotland

Because the playoffs won't happen until June, months after the draw, the geographical restrictions mentioned above also apply to the playoff placeholders — meaning the U.S. cannot draw the Costa Rica-New Zealand winner, even if it ultimately is New Zealand.

The USMNT's most likely opponents

The geographical restrictions are what skew probabilities. Because there is one Pot 2 team, Uruguay, that cannot face Argentina or Brazil, those two South American giants become, by a few percentage points, the most likely matchups for every other Pot 2 team, including the U.S.

The disparities get larger in Pots 3 and 4. There is a greater than 40% chance that the U.S. draws one of the two European teams in Pot 3, Serbia and Poland — because, after two pots, at least two and as many as five groups will already have the maximum two European teams; Serbia and Poland will not be eligible for those groups.

New York-based quantitative analyst Julien Guyon ran 100,000 simulations of the draw to show the approximate breakdown:

For similar reasons, the most likely U.S. opponent is the winner of the European playoff — Wales, Ukraine or Scotland — from Pot 4.

That scenario becomes even more likely if the U.S. draws Brazil or Argentina from Pot 1, and automatic if it then draws any of the Asian or African teams from Pot 3 — because each group must have at least one European nation.

On the other hand, if the U.S. draws a European team from Pot 1 and an African team from Pot 3, it becomes exceedingly likely to get the Peru-Australia/UAE playoff from Pot 4 — because at that point, not many other groups would be able to accommodate both an Asian and South American team, but not an African or CONCACAF team.

What is the USMNT's dream draw?

There are really two categories of "dream draws" for the U.S. The first is simple: Any combination that includes Qatar immediately becomes the weakest group in the field.

The absolute best possibilities are:

• Qatar-U.S.-Poland-Ghana

• Qatar-U.S.-Tunisia-Wales/Ukraine/Scotland

In the non-Qatar category, the preferable European opponent is probably Belgium, though that's subjective. A kind draw could feature any European team not named France. More importantly, the ideal pairing of Pot 3 and 4 teams is Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.

What is the USMNT's nightmare draw?

There are, similarly, two categories of "nightmare draws." One involves France, the reigning champs and the most talented team on the planet. The full four-team pod wouldn't be a true group of death, but it would involve drawing a second European team:

• France-U.S.-Serbia-Peru (Peru will likely beat Australia or the UAE)

• France-U.S.-Senegal-Wales (Wales will likely beat Ukraine or Scotland)

In either of those scenarios, Ecuador could also be difficult from Pot 4.

The other nightmare scenario is Brazil-U.S.-Serbia-Wales.

Who are the strongest and weakest teams in each pot?

Our pre-draw World Cup power rankings can answer this question, but we'll give give the bullet-point response here.

POT 1 STRONGEST: Brazil, France
POT 1 WEAKEST: Qatar

POT 2 STRONGEST: Germany
POT 2 WEAKEST: U.S., Mexico

POT 3 STRONGEST: Serbia, Senegal
POT 3 WEAKEST: Tunisia

POT 4 STRONGEST: Wales, Peru, Ecuador, Canada
POT 4 WEAKEST: Cameroon, Ghana, Saudi Arabia

Other World Cup draw notes and rooting interests

The simplest versions of draw outcomes will be the four-team groups. But there's a bit more to it:

• Groups also determine Round of 16 matchups. Group A gets Group B, C gets D, E gets F and G gets H, with winners meeting runner-ups from the opposite group. So, if the U.S. can't sneak into Group A with Qatar, Group B is preferable — because the USMNT would thereby avoid the other Pot 1 powers in its first knockout match. On the other side, a group opposite Germany's will be undesirable.

• Group placement also determines a team's schedule. The U.S. will play on the opening day and then on Black Friday if it's in Group A or B. It'll play on Thanksgiving if it's in Group G or H. It'll play on a weekend if it's in any of the other four groups.

• The position within each group also matters — for match sequencing. If the U.S. is, say, "B2" or "F2," it plays the top-seeded team first. If it's "B4" of "F4," it plays the top-seeded team last.

• If you'd like to fantasize about all these scenarios, draw simulators are plentiful across the internet. This is the best one.