UPDATED: Will he or won’t he? Matt Bevin drops hints on another run for governor

In 2015, Matt Bevin told a number of people that he was not planning on running for governor of Kentucky.

We know how that turned out, as Bevin filed for governor on the day of the 2015 filing deadline, pulled off a coup over two respected state Republicans in the primary and beat polling expectations to take the governor’s chair.

Could a similar last-minute decision be in store this year for Bevin, who lost his bid for re-election in 2019 against Gov. Andy Beshear? Scott Jennings, a prominent Kentucky-based Republican political commentator and operative who is remaining neutral in the race, said that it might.

“He told a great many people, including other candidates, that he wasn’t running in 2015. And then he went down and filed on the last day. So I mean, who knows? I have no idea. “ Jennings said.

Even Bevin’s old running mate from 2019 doesn’t know.

Sen. Ralph Alvarado, R-Winchester, who is leaving the Senate this month to lead Tennessee’s health department, said that he’ll find out about Bevin’s plans on Friday at 4 p.m., when the window for anyone to file for a statewide constitutional office closes.

“I don’t know,” Alvarado said in response to a question about Bevin’s plans. “Nothing’s been said to me, or anything along those lines. Friday by 4 o’clock, everyone’s gonna find out who’s in the mix.”

Bevin himself has yet to respond to calls or texts from the Herald-Leader regarding his plans.

At around 1 p.m. Friday, however, Bevin cryptically tweeted to say he would be speaking at 2:45 in the Capitol: “At 2:45pm in the Capitol rotunda (primarily for space reasons and because some of you are probably tired of sitting on the floor outside the SOS office ), I will share a few thoughts before proceeding down the hall…” Bevin tweeted.

Rep. Steven Doan, R-Erlanger, who served General Counsel for the Governor’s Office of Agricultural Policy under Bevin, also said he knew nothing about Bevin’s thoughts on the governor’s race.

“I have not (heard anything about Bevin’s plans). I didn’t have much communication with him when I was in his administration,” Doan said.

Rep. John Hodgson, R-Fisherville, is like Doan in that he served under Bevin (as an operations director focused on cutting red tape) and was recently elected to the House in 2022. Hodgson offered no comment when asked about Bevin’s plans.

What if Bevin runs?

If the former governor gets in the crowded GOP field, he is all but assured to face questions about his often rocky tenure. In particular, Bevin has received major criticism from both sides of the political aisle for a raft of controversial pardons he handed out late in his term. Republicans in the legislature mulled last year passing a constitutional amendment barring governors from handing out such ‘lame duck’ pardons as Bevin did.

Auditor Mike Harmon, a candidate for the GOP nomination who has in the past said that he thinks Bevin would get into the race, said that he wasn’t exactly sure. But he was sure that the former governor would take some flack if he did get in.

The controversy has led some Republicans to think that Bevin, who lost by a narrow margin to Beshear in 2019, is not the guy to take him on this year. Beshear has become, despite governing a Republican-leaning state, the most popular Democratic governor in America according to Morning Consult.

Jennings said that he believes if Bevin gets in, Beshear-backing groups like the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) could run adds during the GOP primary that ostensibly appear to support Bevin. The move has been deployed by Democrats in several states, which many interpreted as a strategy to elevate the Republican candidate that was believed to be easier to defeat in the primary.

“My suspicion is, if he gets in the race, the next thing that’s going to happen is they’ll have a meeting over the Democrat Governors Association and they will immediately begin to meddle in this primary to try to get him a nomination,” Jennings said.

Jennings believes that Attorney General Daniel Cameron’s name ID in the state gives him a big advantage over others with lower organic name ID. But Bevin getting in could change that.

“In our state with such low (political contribution) limits, and no corporate contributions, it’s hard to build up the kind of name ID necessary to build a big campaign,” Jennings said. “That’s why Cameron has such an advantage: he’s famous. That’s why throwing Bevin in the mix would immediately roil the thing because he’s also famous – or infamous is more like it.”

One recent bit of activity in the GOP governor’s race that sparked curiosity about Bevin’s role in 2023 was Rep. Savannah Maddox’s, R-Dry Ridge, surprise decision to drop out. Both Maddox and Bevin are seen as firebrand figures within the party, so rumors have swirled about the two potentially teaming up.

Maddox told the Herald-Leader that she would not throw her support behind anyone in the governor’s race until Friday.

“I will not be throwing my support behind anybody publicly at this time, particularly until we see how the field shapes up,” Maddox said. “This Friday, we’ll have a more in-depth awareness of what that will look like.”

Maddox said that she has spoken with most of the current GOP gubernatorial candidates – including Harmon, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, commissioner of agriculture Ryan Quarles and Attorney General Daniel Cameron – but would not say whether she’s corresponded with Bevin since dropping out.

“I wouldn’t speculate on whether or not Matt or anyone else will get in the race,” Maddox said.

Somerset Mayor Alan Keck, a GOP candidate who launched his bid for governor in late November, said it’s been “several months” since he’d spoken with Bevin and that it was “anyone’s guess” as to whether or not he’d get in.

Prior to this year’s General Assembly, legislators considered adding a runoff rule to the gubernatorial primary process, meaning that a second election would be held between the top two vote-getters if nobody crosses a 40% threshold. Interest around that idea has cooled considerably, though, as the deadline approaches.

Some observers saw such an effort as an attempt at mitigating the possibility that Bevin, or another unpopular candidate, could become the GOP nominee – with the thought that he would fare well in a crowded field because of his name ID, but poorly in a head-to-head race with one other legitimate candidate.

When asked if he’d heard anything about Bevin’s plans, Beshear responded simply: he doesn’t know, either.

“I have no idea if Matt Bevin is going to enter the race. Absolutely none. I guess we’ll all know on on Friday.”