WNBA semifinals: Sun look for 1st win vs. Liberty this season; Wings try to exploit Aces' weakness
The 2023 WNBA semifinal field is complete and features all four of the top seeds, led by the No. 1 seed and reigning champion Las Vegas Aces. On the other side of the bracket is No. 2 seed New York Liberty. A clash of the super-teams in the Finals is within reach.
That’s getting ahead of ourselves. The No. 4 Dallas Wings and No. 3 Connecticut Sun, respectively, still stand in the way. The playoff system, which is in its second season, no longer re-seeds teams and is a best-of-five in a 2-2-1 format.
Can the Wings pull off an upset? Do the Aces have a weakness? Can Connecticut earn its first win of 2023 against the super-team New York Liberty? What about that Liberty defense?
Here’s a look at the matchups ahead of Games 1 on Sunday.
No. 1 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 4 Dallas Wings
Game 1: Sunday in Las Vegas, 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Game 2: Tuesday in Las Vegas, 10 p.m. ET on ESPN
Game 3: Friday in Dallas, 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Game 4*: Oct. 1 in Dallas, TBD
Game 5*: Oct. 3 in Las Vegas, TBD
*if necessary. Game 4 will be played at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN unless there is not a Liberty/Sun Game 4, then it will be at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
How the Aces got here: Las Vegas made quick work of the Chicago Sky in a two-game sweep. They outscored the No. 8 seed by a combined 50 points.
How the Wings got here: Dallas experienced a slow start to the playoffs and fell behind the No. 5 Atlanta Dream by 20 points in the first half of Game 1. The Wings rallied to win by 12 points and controlled every part of Game 2 from the tip to win by 27.
Season series: Las Vegas, 3-1
One (possibly overused) fun fact: Dallas is the only team in the WNBA to defeat each of the Aces, Liberty and Sun at least once this season.
Postseason leaders: A’ja Wilson averaged 26 points shooting 60% in the Aces’ first two games, the second-best of any postseason player behind Dream guard Rhyne Howard (28.5 ppg). Las Vegas cleaned up the boards against Chicago with Wilson (12 rpg) and Kiah Stokes (12.5 rpg) ranking top four in the postseason. Wilson averaged four blocks and Jackie Young averaged three steals per game.
Satou Sabally and Arike Ogunbowale remain the Wings’ two-headed scoring monster at 22.5 ppg and 22.0 ppg, respectively, over the first two games. Ogunbowale averaged seven apg. Center Teaira McCowan averaged 15 rpg, best in the postseason.
Can the Wings pull off a historic upset?
Whereas the Sky were flat outmatched in their first-round series against the Aces, the Wings have pieces to pull off an upset. At the very minimum, they should be able to take it to four games.
Dallas has the tallest frontcourt in the league with 6-foot-7 McCowan and 6-2 Natasha Howard, a three-time WNBA champion with the Minnesota Lynx (2017) and Seattle Storm (2018, 2020). Head coach Latricia Trammell can bring the 6-7 Kalani Brown off the bench for McCowan, as well as 6-6 forward Awak Kuier.
It creates a size mismatch for the Aces’ 6-4 Wilson and 6-3 Stokes, who slid back into the starting lineup after the midseason injury to Candace Parker. Head coach Becky Hammon turns to Sixth Player of the Year Alysha Clark (5-11) to relieve Stokes.
Dallas leads the league in rebounds (38.7 rpg), as well as points in the paint (42.3), fast-break points (13.1) and second-chance points (14.8). And the Wings are the best team remaining in the field at allowing the fewest points in the paint (33.6).
What was most impressive about the Wings in the first round was the defense played on the perimeter, particularly the improvement by Ogunbowale. She frustrated Atlanta ball-handlers and turned steals into crucial buckets late in Game 1 to seal a win. Her 4.8 points off turnovers led the league in the regular season (and rose from 3.7 in 2022) and she averaged five in the postseason.
Doing the same to the Aces’ sharpshooters is a more difficult task. Las Vegas ranks second behind New York in percent of scoring from outside the arc (36%) and 3-point field-goal percentage (37%).
Do the Aces have a weakness?
The Aces can go cold against anyone, which is what Dallas will have to do its best to make happen while also throwing out some wishes to the basketball gods. Las Vegas lost every game in which it shot worse than 40% overall. Hitting 3-pointers at a rate worse than 26% and making fewer than 30 baskets also puts the Aces in the most danger of a loss.
The major concern for Las Vegas is depth and matchups. Is it a glaring concern? No, but the Aces relied heavily on their starters again this season and don’t have major options off the bench if a starter isn’t having her best night.
Losing Parker poked a micro hole in their repeat chances. Stokes is not a hearty offensive weapon and opponents often push her out of the paint, leaving her open to focus more on Wilson and the guards. She averaged 2.2 points per game shooting 43.3%, more than 10 percentage points lower than any of the five season-opening starters. The similarly defensive-minded Clark is the first off the bench (22.5 mpg), followed by Kierstan Bell (11.8 mpg), Cayla George (8.5 mpg) and Sydney Colson (4.8 mpg).
This starter-versus-bench production was the same concern for Las Vegas last year, and the Aces tore through the postseason to the franchise’s first championship.
Key stats: Dallas had 13 steals in its win against Las Vegas, compared to eight (twice) and four in their losses. The Aces had 18 turnovers in the loss, tied for the third-most of their season. With the exception of a win against Los Angeles in May, Vegas lost all three games in which it had more than 16 turnovers.
No. 2 New York Liberty vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun
Game 1: Sunday in New York, 1 p.m. ET on ESPN
Game 2: Tuesday in New York, 8 pm. ET on ESPN
Game 3: Friday in Connecticut, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Game 4*: Oct. 1 in Connecticut, 3 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 5*: Oct. 3 in New York, TBD
How the Liberty got here: New York drew the toughest matchup of the first round because the Washington Mystics dropped to a No. 7 seed due to injuries throughout the season. The Liberty won by 15 in Game 1 with 12 3-pointers, seven off the hands of Sabrina Ionescu. The Mystics’ defense mucked up the Liberty’s offensive rhythm in Game 2, and New York avoided a one-game road trip in a five-point overtime win.
How the Sun got here: Connecticut defeated No. 6 Minnesota by 30 in Game 1, but dropped the opportunity to sweep when it fell behind in Game 2 and lacked the defensive intensity. It won Game 3 by 15 points on Wednesday by going back to its two All-Stars.
Season series: New York, 4-0
One (possibly overused) fun fact: The Sun defeated every team in the league this season at least once, except for one. That team is the Liberty.
Postseason leaders: Alyssa Thomas (23 ppg) and DeWanna Bonner (22 ppg) continued to lead the Sun’s winning ways in the postseason. Thomas averaged a postseason-best 9.3 assists per game, more than point guards Natasha Cloud of the Mystics (8.5), Chelsea Gray of the Aces (eight) and Courtney Vandersloot (eight) of the Liberty.
Jonquel Jones paced the Liberty with the double-double consistency of 20 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1 and 19 points with 14 rebounds in Game 2. She was a combined 13-of-15 (86.7%) from inside the arc and missed all six 3s she attempted. The team is undefeated when she has a double-double. Ionescu (20 ppg), Jones (19.5 ppg), Betnijah Laney (19 ppg) and Breanna Stewart (18 ppg) all averaged double digits.
How can the Sun win their first game against New York in 2023?
Sun head coach Stephanie White touched on it after their Game 3 win Wednesday night: The Sun need to stay disciplined and pay attention to the small details. Thomas and Bonner will both have to show up in big ways. And because Connecticut does not have the weapons New York has, both in the starting lineup and off the bench, players need to step up around them. It would help to drain some 3s.
In their closest game, a 95-90 overtime loss, Bonner scored 30 points, hit six 3s and added 12 rebounds. Thomas had 22 points, 12 assists, seven rebounds and three steals. Two additional players scored in double digits and a total of five players hit at least one 3. Their 11 3s was two off a season high. Stewart referenced that Sun loss after their Game 2 win against Washington. In both, she said, New York was successful because the Liberty “just didn’t stop” and made plays until the very end to force the extra five minutes.
The second-best showing was an 89-81 loss in June, despite a rough 11 points by Thomas and 12 from Bonner. DiJonai Carrington scored 23 and was 3-of-3 from 3-point range. It was the only game she played significant minutes in against New York as she dealt with a left foot injury. Her play will be an X-factor for the Sun’s success.
Will New York’s late-season defensive prowess continue?
The Liberty’s cohesion took a little bit to come together after the addition of All-WNBA stars Stewart, Jones and Vandersloot. Offseason injuries also delayed that process. Their offense, and league-leading assist percentage, is the focal point, but it’s the defensive end that will determine if New York wins its first WNBA title.
“We understand how important defense is for us and we know that we’re a special team offensively, but when we really lock in defensively, we take that to another level,” Jones said ahead of the Game 2 win.
As players gained more time on the court together, the defense solidified. New York’s defensive 101.0 rating ranked seventh through the first 25 games of the season when it went 19-6. Over the 15 games since Aug. 1, its defense has improved to a league-best 96.6 rating. It was 13-2 in the stretch that included three games against Las Vegas, two against Connecticut, one against Dallas and the season finale against Washington. The Los Angeles Sparks ranked second (98.5) since Aug. 1, followed by the Aces (100) and Sun (100.9).
It’s a team effort built through communication and led by Laney’s mainly guarding the other team’s best player. Jones, whose 1.3 blocks per game ranked eighth, and Stewart provide length both in the paint and outside of it on guards. Kayla Thornton can come off the bench for defensive power and they will bring traps, forcing turnovers on which to capitalize.
Key stats: New York averaged 7.1 steals and 4.7 blocks per game in its 32 wins. In its eight losses, those dropped to 4.9 steals and 3.5 blocks. Against Connecticut, it averaged 6.8 steals and 5.5 blocks. The Sun lost all 11 games in which they allowed more than 85 points to an opponent. Three of them were in overtime.
