Who Will Win 'RuPaul's Drag Race' Season 16? Episode 3 Power Rankings

We're three episodes into RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16 and we've finally started to trim the field. And, sure, our queens have only competed in two maxi challenges, but it's never too early to star speculating as to who might win the season. This week the ball challenge revealed both 1) the fashion taste level for each queen and the caliber we can expect to see from them on the runway and 2) their sewing skills. So there's a lot of new information to process.

This week we also said goodbye to Miss Hershii LiqCour-Jete. While I did rank her 10th last week out of 14, it was painfully obvious from the jump that fashion just wasn't her forte. Luck and the order of challenges can play a massive role in how far you get in Drag Race, and Hershii just got spectacularly unlucky. Should some acting/improv challenges come first or she ended up in the bottom with someone other than a dancer, she might have lasted longer, but alas, she is our Porkchop of the season. But 13 queens remain!

Related: 'RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars 8' Take New York. Next Stop: the World.

Which brings us to the question: Who will win Season 16 of RuPaul's Drag Race?

To that end, I've put together a ranking of the 13 remaining queens competing on this season, ordered from least likely to most likely to be crowned America's Next Drag Superstar. It's a power ranking if you will, and while there are supposed spoilers on dark corners of the internet, I haven't read any of them. This ranking is also based on how likely the queen is to WIN the competition, not just go far.

If you want to take a look at the previous ranking, here you go.

Feel free to swing back to Parade from week to week because I will be updating as the season progresses.

RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16 Episode 3 power rankings:

13. Mhi'ya Iman Le'Paige

Last Week: Twelth
Track Record: Safe, Bottom

Mhi'ya has fallen to the bottom of my ranking this week for several concerning reasons. The first is that her fashion taste is clearly a bit lacking as we've witnessed in two episodes now, and while not every challenge is a ball with sewing, mediocre runways and barely managing to come in 12th out of 14 do not a winner make. But perhaps more important is that Mhi'ya (along with several other queens who we will get to shortly) clearly does not have enough subjective self-awareness to know her strengths and weaknesses. She was shocked she was rated low last week in the talent show despite her tumbling routine lacking story and emotion, and she was again surprised this week that her looks were not received well. Most damning of all, however, was Ru calling her "timid." That was the kiss of death to miss Mary Canary (which btw like WTF were these nursery rhymes???). Never in my life had I heard of half of them.

12. Megami

Last Week: Thirteenth
Track Record: Safe, Safe

Dawn called Megami the "Eeyore of drag" and I will be in my grave with that phrase rolling around in my mind. Never has someone been so eviscerated so specifically and so cleanly. Megami does seem like a bit of a downer through two episodes, and all three of her looks (Lil Bow Peep, Lady Gaga and the Home Depot Rosie the Riveter) were all just a little wonky. She seems defensive (a trait Ru does not love), and if the cosplay queen can't excel in a design challenge, then I struggle to see where she will sign. With the SNL-style skit this week, it's time for Megami to either prove me wrong or start looking for the exit.

11. Amanda Tori Meating

Last Week: Fourteenth
Track Record: Safe, Safe

Everyone wants to hate on Amanda Tori Meating, but I'm gonna say it. I love her. I think she's funny. She can laugh at herself. She is self aware. AND she is putting in the effort. Everyone hated her makeup in the premiere and she is trying to do better. Plus, now that she's survived the ball, and with a comedy challenge next, she'll hopefully have some room to breathe. Is Amanda going to win? Probably not. But might she (disguised as Michelle Visage) sneak past a few of these other queens? I sure as hell hope so.

10. Morphine Love Dion

Last Week: Ninth
Track Record: Safe, Safe

I love love love delusion and that is what Morphine is bathing herself in. The girl is pretty and she does have a BBL (which she is apparently contractually obligated by her plastic surgeon to mention four times an episode), but to hear her tell it, you'd think she was the second coming of Linda Evangelista. So far, Morphine has delivered an exquisite face card with basic looks. And while I do adore her shady confessionals, I'm not sure how she'll perform in these comedy challenges. All that to say, I am treasuring every second of her on my screen and I hope she never changes.

9. Plasma

Last Week: Eighth
Track Record: Safe, Safe

Plasma is hard to judge because I know full well she is slowly simmering and hasn't had the opportunity to shine yet. The quick witted queen is going to blow plenty of these girls out of the water when it comes to a comedy challenge, but we haven't seen that yet. Fully expecting her to rise next week but in the meantime, I'm sticking her here at 9th for that truly hideous lumpy Tweedledee number. #DawnToldTheTruth

8. Geneva Karr

Last Week: Fifth
Track Record: Top, Bottom

Now, Geneva is an interesting one because to go from the top to the bottom so quick is hard to understand. To be fair, she's not really a fashion queen, and everyone has a weakness, but it was her Miss Muffet and Salma Hayek looks (that she paid for and brought from home) that ultimately looked worse than the one she made in the Werk Room out of an old suit jacket. I don't expect Geneva to fall in the bottom again soon given her other strengths, but I do think she could be in danger whenever the next fashion challenge hits.

7. Mirage

Last Week: Sixth
Track Record: Safe, Safe

Unlike the likes of Mhi'ya and Morphine, Mirage knows exactly who she is and how to pay to her strengths. She gave us sheep stripper, haunted stripper, and arm knitwear stripper this week on the runway, and I for one loved every second of it. The woman knows what she is selling and can sell it well. Plus, I just know we're in for some Anetra-level shenanigans whenever she does eventually end up in the bottom.

6. Xunami Muse

Last Week: Eleventh
Track Record: Safe, Safe

Perhaps the biggest improvement this week goes to Xunami, who not only proved herself to be the fashion queen she claimed to be in the premiere, but also informed the viewers at home that she is clever and funny. Humpty Dumpty and Kandy Muse were divinely inspired ideas, and I think she would have landed herself in the top were she not up against seamstresses. Xunami seems to be more clever than the other girls are giving her credit for, and that could wind up being what sends them home.

5. Dawn

Last Week: Seventh
Track Record: Safe, Safe

Dawn is the internet's darling, but will she be RuPaul's? Seeing that the Rate-A-Queen twist has meddled with the rankings both weeks, it's a bit hard to tell, but the overlooked edit (often the kiss of death) is starting to appear for Dawn. She seems funny. She is fashionable. She has a unique aesthetic. BUT I worry that we could have a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none kind of situation here, where she winds up being safe a lot and then lets the frustration get the better of her. TBD though, because I did love her ghostly Audrey Hepburn look.

4. Plane Jane

Last Week: Third
Track Record: Win, Safe

Plane Jane is here to be the villain, and I am loving every second of it. Her going after Amanda for truly no reason in Untucked? Iconic. But I will say this, all of her looks leaned into humor more than they did fashion, and while that worked fine here, I think the schtick might start getting old. That being said, I expect a strong performance next week in RPDR Live, which will solidify her as a frontrunner if she isn' one already.

3. Sapphira Cristal

Last Week: Fourth
Track Record: Win, Top

The fact that Sapphira Cristal, a pageant girlie, made it into the top three of the ball proved to me that she is COMPETITION. Perhaps I underestimated her after the premiere as a bit too old-school, but she's got a lot of skills, and I think its going to be hard to knock someone this seasoned into the bottom. These young queens need to wise up fast.

2. Q

Last Week: Second
Track Record: Top, Top

In many ways, no one has been handed a first two episodes better crafted to their skill set. Between a photo shoot, a reveal runway, and a ball (not to mention a talent number she had plenty of time to prepare), Q has had nothing but opportunities to succeed, and she has done so tremendously. I think where the rubber meets the road, however, will be next week in the SNL-themed challenge. If she can prove herself to be as deft in comedy as she is in fashion, we might have found our winner.

1. Nymphia Wind

Last Week: First
Track Record: Safe, Win

I said last week that I felt that Nymphia was being underrated, and this week she proved that. She is a fashion queen, and her Little Boy Blue, Angelina Jolie and neck tie ensembles each screamed that. Also, unlike, say, Plane Jane, Nymphia did not rely all on humor with these, just plane elegance and sophistication. She will be delivering top notch runways all season long, and we know she's funny. If someone is going to unseat Nymphia, they're really going to have to start throwing some banana peels on the ground and hope she slips up.

Next, Everything You Need to Know About RuPaul's Drag Race Season 16