Who will win at the Oscars, according to the stats
This year's Academy Awards are happening this Sunday (March 12) in the US (early hours on Monday in the UK) and we know you're thinking what everybody else is: who will take home an Oscar on the night?
You might think that it's impossible to know and while you're right that you can never be 100% certain, there are ways to narrow down just who might win the big awards if you look back at the history of the glitzy ceremony.
Related: Everything Everywhere All At Once leads this year's Oscar nominations
So that's just what we've done to try and highlight the likely winners in Best Picture, Directing and all four of the acting categories. Don't sue us if we're wrong, it's just a guideline to a potential win.
Best Picture
Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, TÁR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
Likely winner: Everything Everywhere All At Once
It might have missed out at the BAFTAs, but Everything Everywhere All At Once looks as close to a dead-cert to win Best Picture at the Oscars given its run to date during this year's awards race.
Most notably, it won the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture which, in the 33 years it's been running, has correctly predicted 23 Best Picture winners, including CODA and Nomadland in the past two years.
But it's not just one win. Everything Everywhere... has also landed the top honours at the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards and the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards.
It's also won Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards and picked up Best Picture at the Critics' Choice Awards back in January.
The odds are very much in its favour as no movie has won all four guild awards – PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA – and not gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
The potential dark horse is All Quiet on the Western Front after its surprise win at the BAFTAs. Netflix's anti-war movie has picked up an impressive nine nominations and can't be fully counted out.
Best Picture is the one category at the Oscars that has a preferential voting system to decide its winner, with all members of the Academy giving their top five out of the nominees.
If one movie gets more than 50% of the No.1 pick then it wins, but if not, the lowest ranking is eliminated and No.2 picks are used until one movie has more than 50%. Everything Everywhere... could prove divisive among Oscar voters, where All Quiet... might pick up more consistent rankings.
What goes in Everything Everywhere...'s favour is that the PGAs use the exact same voting system and it still won the top honours there.
Directing
Nominees: Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Todd Field (TÁR), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Likely winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
As mentioned above, Everything Everywhere All At Once won the Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film award at the DGAs, which means Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are strong favourites to win at the Oscars.
There have only been eight occasions in the DGA's 74-year history where the winner has missed out on Oscar glory. Most recently, this happened in 2020 when DGA winner Sam Mendes lost out to Bong Joon-ho at the Oscars.
The Daniels did lose out to Steven Spielberg at the Golden Globes, but they also beat Spielberg at the Critics' Choice Awards, so while you can never fully discount the legendary filmmaker, the duo seem like a solid bet.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
Likely winner: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
While we've gone for Brendan Fraser here, Actor in a Leading Role is likely a three-way tussle between Fraser, Austin Butler and Colin Farrell. Unlike in previous years, no one actor has enjoyed a clean sweep during the awards race.
Fraser won at the Critics' Choice Awards and at the SAGs, Butler triumphed at the Golden Globes (Drama) and BAFTAs, and Farrell won at the Golden Globes (Musical/Comedy) alongside picking up several wins at the various critics' groups in the US.
Typically, we'd look at the SAGs being the best indicator for an acting award and the SAGs have matched the Oscar winner 22 times out of 28, which points to a good night at the Oscars for Brendan Fraser.
However, The Whale hasn't been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. You'd have to go back to 2010 where the lead actor winner at the Oscars came from a movie that wasn't nominated for Best Picture. (That was Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart, fact fans.)
That opens the door for either an Austin Butler or Colin Farrell win and if you asked us right now, we'd say if Fraser doesn't win, it'll be Butler taking home the Oscar.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (TÁR), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Likely winner: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Until the SAGs, we'd have said that Actress in a Leading Role was Cate Blanchett's to lose and while we're still backing her to win the Oscar, we're not as confident as we would have been a week ago.
Blanchett has been winning pretty much every award going, including at the Critics' Choice Awards, Golden Globes (Drama) and the BAFTAs. Such a clean sweep would have pointed to a SAGs win on the way to Oscar glory.
And yet, Blanchett was beaten at the SAGs by Michelle Yeoh, who became the first Asian woman to win the lead actress award at the event. The SAGs have matched the Oscars 20 out of 28 times across their history.
Yeoh also won at the Golden Globes (Musical/Comedy) and with that SAGs history, she could defy the odds and win at the Oscars. If Blanchett won, it'd be her third Oscar, but if Yeoh won, it would be her first.
Can Oscar voters resist such romance? We'll find out on the night.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Likely winner: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
If there was one acting award that we're nearly 100% confident on, it's Ke Huy Quan winning the Oscar for Actor in a Supporting Role to cap off a wonderful comeback story that's been long overdue.
Quan has won at pretty much every awards to date, barring Barry Keoghan pipping him at the BAFTAs (which does sometimes go left-field for a homegrown win). Keoghan couldn't repeat this surprise win at the SAGs where Quan continued his march to glory.
The SAGs have matched the Oscars 19 out of 28 times when it comes to supporting actor, which is actually the lowest success rate for any of the acting categories. Still though, it'd be a major upset if anybody but Quan is holding that Oscar at the end of the night.
Don't let us down, Academy.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Likely winner: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
We'll be honest: we've picked Angela Bassett here out of hope, rather than expectation, that she can be Marvel's first-ever acting winner at the Oscars.
Much like with Blanchett, Bassett looked a guaranteed winner a few weeks ago after she won at the Golden Globes and at the Critics' Choice Awards. But it's been a bumpier path for Bassett since then.
Her Oscar rivals Kerry Condon and Jamie Lee Curtis won over her at the BAFTAs and the SAGs, respectively. The SAGs have correctly predicted supporting actress 20 times out of 28 across its history which could be good news for Curtis.
Deep down, we really hope that out of nowhere, Stephanie Hsu can triumph at the Oscars as she should have been doing everywhere this awards season. If we're being realistic though, it'd a straight shoot between Bassett and Curtis.
Right now, it's probably Curtis's to lose, but Bassett could make a late surge.
The 95th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 12 in the US. It will be broadcast live on Sky Cinema Greats and Sky Showcase at 12am on Monday, March 13 in the UK.
You Might Also Like
