Williams' inbox: Breaking down Cincinnati Bearcats' chances of making NCAA Tournament

Subject: Cincinnati Bearcats NCAA Tournament outlook

Message: Are the Bearcats a tournament team?

Reply: As Dan Hoard said on the 700 WLW pregame show Tuesday night: The Bearcats “are the epitome of a bubble team.”

Last four in. Last four out. Last four in. Last four out. Flip a coin. Oh, yeah, you need an answer.

Prediction: UC will miss the NCAA Tournament this season.

Williams: How Cincinnati stacks up to other wannabe NHL cities

Williams: Why UC needs a Steve Logan-style alpha dog

Tuesday’s home loss to 10th-ranked Iowa State really hurts the Bearcats’ chances. That’s the No. 9 team in the NET rankings on your home court. Gotta have that one, but the Bearcats suffered a nine-point loss and were never really in it in the second half. I was there. The Bearcats got outmanned. They were careless with the ball.

This team just can’t get over the hump, partly because it lacks a go-to guy in the clutch. We’ve seen enough of this team, and there’s no sign the Bearcats are going to go on a run. It’s probably going to take that to make the NCAA Tournament.

UC is now 2-6 in so-called Quad 1 games. The Bearcats are only 2-2 in Quad 2 games. They don’t have a terrible loss, but getting no quality wins in a mostly weak non-conference schedule could be held against them.

You figure UC will need to finish at least with a .500 record in Big 12 play to lock up a tourney bid, and I don’t see it happening. The Bearcats are 4-7 in league play.

Predicting the rest of UC’s regular-season schedule:

∎ Wins (2): Oklahoma State (Feb. 21), West Virginia (March 9).

∎ Losses (3): at TCU (Feb. 24), at Houston (Feb. 27), at Oklahoma (March 5).

∎ Tossups (2): at UCF (Saturday), Kansas State (March 2).

UC has no margin for error. Let’s say the Bearcats go 4-3 down the stretch with wins against UCF, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and West Virginia. None of those wins are going to move the needle enough.

It’d put the Bearcats at 19-12 overall, 8-10 in Big 12 play. That’s still bubble material, but it’ll force the NCAA Tournament selection committee to focus on UC’s non-conference schedule.

And barring a run in the Big 12 Tournament, the Bearcats are going to regret not beating Xavier and Dayton.

Email and ask columnist Jason Williams anything − sports or non-sports – and he’ll pick some of your messages and respond on Cincinnati.com throughout the week. Contact Jason at jwilliams@enquirer.com

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Bubble watch: Hard to see Cincinnati Bearcats making NCAA Tournament