Wide range of bowl possibilities in play for Kentucky football ahead of Tennessee game
Back-to-back losses to Georgia and Missouri may have knocked Kentucky out of the SEC East race, but the season’s outlook may not be as dire as it seems if the Wildcats can right the ship this weekend against No. 21 Tennessee.
A victory over the Volunteers would make Kentucky bowl eligible for a school-record eighth consecutive season. More importantly, it could be the springboard needed to rally for a challenging final five games that include three games against ranked teams and two tricky road games at SEC rivals.
“I just believe if we continue to stay focused this is still a team that can do some special things,” senior offensive guard Kenneth Horsey said after practice Tuesday. “Just the mere fact that we’re 5-2 and very angry at ourselves is a testament to Coach (Mark) Stoops and Coach (Vince) Marrow, how far this program has come and how much our fans believe in us that we can achieve.”
The difficulty of Kentucky’s remaining schedule means there is still a wide range of possibilities for the Wildcats’ bowl hopes.
While UK could be favored in road games at Mississippi State and South Carolina, the Wildcats have not won in Starkville since 2009 and lost to the Gamecocks last season. With Kentucky likely to be an underdog in the final home games against Tennessee and No. 9 Alabama, it is not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Wildcats need to win at No. 18 Louisville in the regular season finale to secure bowl eligibility.
But if Kentucky beats Tennessee then carries that momentum to Starkville, it also would not be crazy to think Stoops’ team has a chance to win all five remaining games. Do that, and a 10-2 record might be enough to send Kentucky to one of the most prestigious bowls in program history.
With the Wildcats one win from bowl eligibility, here is a closer look at the postseason options.
New Year’s Six games
Since the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl are the playoff semifinals this season, Kentucky could theoretically play in any of the other four New Year’s Six games (Cotton, Orange, Fiesta and Peach). One spot in the Orange Bowl will go to the highest-ranked ACC team outside the playoff. The other will go to the highest ranked of the remaining SEC and Big Ten teams or Notre Dame. One spot in the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach Bowls will go to the highest-ranked Group of Five conference team in the final playoff committee ranking. If any of the champions from the SEC, Big 12, Pac-12 or Big Ten are not in the playoff, those teams will be guaranteed one of the five remaining at-large spots. Once those obligations are filled, the remaining New Year’s Six bids will be awarded to the highest-ranked teams from the final ranking in order of their ranking.
Kentucky probably needs to be ranked in the top 10 to receive one of those bids. It is possible even a 10-2 record might not be enough to send the Wildcats to a New Year’s Six bowl, but Kentucky would have a strong resume with second-half wins over Tennessee, Alabama and Louisville.
Citrus Bowl
The Citrus Bowl has first pick of SEC teams after the playoff committee fills the New Year’s Six games. Usually the Citrus Bowl takes the highest ranked SEC team available to it, but if there are multiple SEC teams grouped in the same vicinity of the final playoff ranking, the fact that Kentucky has played in the Citrus bowl twice since 2018 and most recently in 2021 would probably work against the Wildcats’ chances of returning to Orlando.
Pool of six games
After the Citrus Bowl makes its selection, the league office works with its member schools and a group of six bowls (ReliaQuest, Texas, Duke’s Mayo, Music City, Taxslayer Gator and Liberty) to assign teams based on a variety of criteria. Among the factors considered is avoiding repeat trips and matchups in a short window. If Kentucky is in this tier of bowl eligible teams, it will not play in the Music City Bowl since it played there last season. The other five bowls could all conceivably be a landing spot for the Wildcats.
The pool of six bowls and the SEC teams in play each rank their preference of partners, and the league office then makes the final assignments. While all the bowls in this tier technically have the same weight in the SEC’s process, the ReliaQuest Bowl, formerly known as the Outback Bowl, has historically been the top target for most teams thanks to its status as a Florida bowl played on New Year’s Day. Kentucky has not played in the game since the 1998 season and would surely have the Tampa game on the top of its priority list, but other schools will probably target that bowl too. Kentucky probably needs at least eight wins to feel good about its chances of landing in Tampa.
The Texas Bowl is the only game in this tier Kentucky has not played in previously, but an SEC West team has been slotted in the Texas Bowl in seven of the nine seasons it has been affiliated with the SEC. The only two exceptions were 2017 (Missouri) and 2018 (Vanderbilt) when the two western-most SEC East teams played in the game. If the SEC does not have enough bowl eligible teams to fill the pool of six games, the Liberty Bowl has historically been the game that was left without an SEC team.
Other options
If there are still bowl eligible SEC teams remaining after the pool of six games are filled, the Birmingham and Gasparilla bowls have contracts with the league. ESPN makes the selections for those games. A trip to one of those games can’t be ruled out for a 6-6 Kentucky team, but if enough SEC teams reach the New Year’s Six bowls the league might not have enough bowl eligible teams to reach this point in the selection process.
Latest Kentucky football bowl projections
Action Network: Liberty Bowl vs. Iowa State
The Athletic: Liberty Bowl vs. BYU
Athlon: Liberty Bowl vs. West Virginia
CBSSports: Birmingham Bowl vs. Rice
ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs. Miami
ESPN (Mark Schlabach): Liberty Bowl vs. Iowa State
USA Today: Liberty Bowl vs. West Virginia
Saturday
No. 21 Tennessee at Kentucky
When: 7 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Records: Tennessee 5-2 (2-2 SEC), Kentucky 5-2 (2-2)
Series: Tennessee leads 83-26-9
Last meeting: Tennessee won 44-6 on Oct. 29, 2022, in Knoxville
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