Wichita State basketball coach Paul Mills, a KenPom ‘addict,’ reacts to WSU prediction

Sunday was a holiday of sorts for the college basketball analytical community, which most certainly includes new Wichita State men’s basketball coach Paul Mills.

College basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy released his annual preseason rankings on Sunday, revealing the Shockers as the No. 141 team in the country — their lowest starting point to a season in the 14-year run on KenPom.

“I knew (the season) was real when the KenPom rankings came out after (Sunday’s) practice,” Mills said on Monday. “I was pretty fired up. We had an intrasquad scrimmage yesterday and I was up until about 2:45 this morning going through that film and seething over some KenPom rankings.”

Pomeroy’s algorithm factors in the last five seasons of play for the program with an emphasis on the last two seasons of conference play, as well as data from returning production, transfers, notable freshmen and coaching changes.

Pomeroy’s system projects Wichita State to finish with a 14-15 record in the 2023-24 season with an 8-10 mark in American Athletic Conference play. The Shockers, who were picked eighth by coaches in the preseason poll, are pegged as the ninth-best team in the American behind Memphis (No. 32), Florida Atlantic (No. 37), North Texas (No. 87), UAB (No. 90), SMU (No. 92), Tulane (No. 95), South Florida (No. 127) and East Carolina (No. 130).

Mills’ first season on the sidelines at Koch Arena is beginning to ramp up this week, as the Shockers are slated to play Iowa in a closed scrimmage in Omaha on Sunday with their exhibition game against Rogers State scheduled for the following Sunday.

“It’s a fun time of the year, an exciting time of the year,” Mills said. “You understand there’s no magic offensive play, no magic defensive scheme. So much of this job is leadership and teaching guys how to lead and what it should look like. I’m excited about where we can be, even though prognostications don’t think too highly of us.”

Mills enjoyed poking fun at the KenPom preseason rankings, but his fandom of KenPom during the season is no joke. He considers himself an “addict” to the website that shows where teams rank in different analytical categories, both nationally and in their conference.

His days usually end and begin the same way: by browsing KenPom’s data.

“The first thing I do when I wake up is go straight to KenPom,” Mills said. “Just to see what changed the night before or ‘I can’t believe he hasn’t updated it.’ I do like to see where we are in comparison to other teams in the league on things that we are trying to emphasize.”

The two categories Mills will be checking the most this season? Rebounding percentage and turnover percentage.

Last year’s WSU team clocked in at No. 187 nationally in turnover percentage on offense and No. 166 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, Mills’ squad at Oral Roberts ranked No. 1 in turnover percentage and No. 143 in defensive rebounding percentage.

WSU entered last season ranked No. 83 in KenPom’s preseason rankings and finished the season ranked No. 102, the second straight season where the Shockers slid backward from their preseason projection.