Why a wide range of bowl possibilities is still in play for Kentucky after Vanderbilt loss
The list of possible bowl destinations for Kentucky football did not dramatically change after the Wildcats’ shocking loss to Vanderbilt.
But predicting which of the SEC’s “Pool of Six” bowl games Kentucky will be sent to became even more difficult. We know Kentucky will almost certainly play in one of the ReliaQuest, Gator, Texas, Music City, Las Vegas or Liberty bowls, but some assumptions about the Wildcats’ possible matches in that group that seemed safe to make a week ago no longer are.
Among the options that seem more possible after the Vanderbilt loss is a trip to the Music City Bowl.
Since that game starts at the same time (noon) as the Kentucky-Louisville men’s basketball game on New Year’s Eve, a match seemed like a bad fit for both parties this year. Had Kentucky beaten Vanderbilt, it was almost certain Kentucky would have a clearer path to one of its higher priority options in the pool.
Depending on the results from the last two regular season games, Kentucky might not have much say in where it plays a bowl game anymore.
“Very seldom is there a perfect scenario,” Scott Ramsey, president and CEO of the Music City Bowl, told the Herald-Leader this week. “... I don’t think that would eliminate us from considering Kentucky based on kind of what the options are. Is it perfect? No. I think (UK athletic director) Mitch (Barnhart) and everybody knows that but, hey, it’s sometimes just the way things kind of fall.”
College Football Playoff implications
The first factor out of Kentucky’s control in the bowl selection process is how many Southeastern Conference teams are sent to New Year’s Six bowl games by the College Football Playoff committee.
No. 1 Georgia looks like a safe bet to reach the playoff. No. 5 Tennessee also has a strong chance to reach the four-team playoff field if it takes care of business against South Carolina and Vanderbilt in its final two games since one of No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan is guaranteed a loss when they play each other in two weeks. The top-ranked SEC team outside the playoff goes to the Sugar Bowl. For now, that is No. 6 LSU. No. 8 Alabama is in line for the Orange Bowl spot that goes to the highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten team after the playoff field, Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl are set.
If those four teams hold onto their New Year’s Six spots, the Citrus Bowl, which has first pick of SEC teams after the New Year’s Six bowls are filled, has an easy choice in No. 14 Ole Miss. However, if Tennessee, LSU or Alabama falls out of New Year’s Six contention with another loss, the Citrus Bowl would have a more difficult decision and one of the top five teams would fall into the SEC’s “Pool of Six” bowl tier.
“That’s kind of the first piece of the puzzle,” Ramsey said. “Who is going to be in the pool?”
How the SEC assigns teams to ‘Pool of Six’ bowls
Gone are the days where there was a clear pecking order among the SEC’s contracted bowl partners and each bowl selected a team in the order of that ranking. Once the Citrus Bowl makes its pick, the league office takes over, using feedback from schools and bowls to assign teams to the “Pool of Six” games.
The SEC is intentionally vague about how the process works, but avoiding repeat trips and matchups in a short window are among the factors that are taken into consideration. For instance, Kentucky is unlikely to be sent to the Gator Bowl because it played there after the 2020 season.
While the “Pool of Six” bowls all technically have the same weight in the SEC’s selection process, the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly known as the Outback Bowl) is generally schools’ top target in the pool thanks to its status as a Florida bowl traditionally played on New Year’s Day. (The game will be played on Jan. 2 this year to avoid conflict with the Sunday NFL schedule on Jan. 1)
Since the SEC adopted its current bowl selection process, the SEC has sent a team with at least eight regular season wins to the Tampa game every year a full 12-game schedule was played.
If four SEC teams are in the New Year’s Six games, there may not be an eight-win team available for the ReliaQuest Bowl this year though. In that scenario, there also probably will not be enough bowl-eligible SEC teams to fill all the “Pool of Six” games. The Liberty Bowl has replaced its SEC team with a bowl-eligible team from another conference when five or fewer bowl-eligible SEC teams were left for the pool in the past.
How Kentucky can still play in the ReliaQuest Bowl
Entering the weekend, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi State are all bowl eligible at 6-4.
Among that group, Florida has the clearest path to eight wins with games at Vanderbilt and No. 20 Florida State remaining. Kentucky hosts No. 1 Georgia and Louisville in its final two regular season games. South Carolina hosts No. 5 Tennessee and plays at Clemson. Mississippi State hosts FCS East Tennessee State then closes the regular season at No. 14 Ole Miss.
Obviously, a Kentucky upset of Georgia would dramatically change the Wildcats’ outlook, but it is impossible to imagine that scenario after watching UK’s recent performances. Even with a loss to Georgia, a win over rival Louisville could be enough to get UK to the ReliaQuest Bowl if Florida and Mississippi State lose another game and South Carolina loses two more. In that scenario, Kentucky, Florida and Mississippi State would be 7-5 and South Carolina would be 6-6.
In the same way that Tennessee was able to keep Kentucky from its preferred Gator Bowl choice in 2019 even though both teams were 7-5 thanks to its head-to-head win over the Wildcats, Kentucky would likely have preference for the ReliaQuest Bowl against a 7-5 Florida and Mississippi State thanks to its head-to-head wins against those teams. South Carolina would hold an edge over Kentucky though if both teams are 7-5.
What if Kentucky loses to Georgia and Louisville?
Considering Louisville’s recent uptick in form and Kentucky’s collapse, the Wildcats figure to be only a small favorite — if a favorite at all — in the Governor’s Cup rivalry game, even though it will be played in Lexington. A loss there (assuming a loss to Georgia too) would see Kentucky arrive at bowl selection Sunday with a 6-6 record and little say in where it plays.
Kentucky would be behind Florida, Mississippi State and South Carolina in preference order if the Gators and Bulldogs each win at least one of their final two games. The winner of the regular season finale between Missouri and Arkansas will also probably be bowl eligible at 6-6, adding another team to the mix.
A plausible scenario would see three teams from that group fill the ReliaQuest, Gator and Texas bowls — The Texas Bowl has usually taken a team from the SEC West when one is available — leaving the Music City Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl as options for Kentucky.
The Las Vegas Bowl is the wildcard in the process since it is in its first year as an SEC bowl partner and has no track record to suggest what level of team will be sent there. On the one hand, a trip to Las Vegas would be exciting for players and fans, and the game’s matchup with a Pac-12 team for a national prime-time broadcast on ABC could add intrigue. On the other, the Dec. 17 kickoff would be a headache for coaches since it comes the weekend before signing day when most staffs are making their final visits with prospects.
Kentucky and the Music City Bowl have a long relationship, but the Wildcats have actually played in the Nashville game just once since 2009. Only two current Wildcats were on the roster the last time Kentucky played in the game in 2017. South Carolina, Florida or Missouri would also be intriguing options for the Music City Bowl since they have never played in the game, but South Carolina and Florida both made trips to Nashville to play Vanderbilt in November, perhaps lessening some of their appeal.
The opponent in each of the SEC games must also be taken into consideration. The Music City and ReliaQuest bowls could field a Big Ten team with Iowa in contention for both spots. Bowl organizers and the SEC office would almost certainly like to avoid a scenario where Kentucky plays Iowa in a bowl for the second year in a row.
There is at least one scenario where Kentucky could fall even further down the SEC’s bowl pecking order.
If Arkansas upsets Ole Miss this week but loses to Missouri after the Tigers take care of business against New Mexico State and Auburn wins out with a victory over Western Kentucky and an upset of Alabama in the Iron Bowl, it is likely the SEC only gets three teams in the New Year’s Six bowls. In that scenario there would be eight bowl eligible SEC teams for the “Pool of Six” to choose from. A 6-6 Kentucky team would be no safe bet to be sent to any of those games, bringing the Birmingham and Gasparilla bowls into play. The Birmingham Bowl has first pick of SEC teams available after the “Pool of Six” is filled, and the Gasparilla Bowl has the final selection.
That scenario is unlikely, but it offers one glimpse at just how much uncertainty remains for the SEC’s selection process.
“I think we just kind of have to wait and play out these next couple weeks,” Ramsey said.
A season that began with a summer feud between Mark Stoops and John Calipari after Calipari called Kentucky a “basketball school” could end with fans being forced to choose between watching the football bowl or basketball’s biggest rivalry game. Or it could end with a Florida bowl for the fifth time in seven years.
The only safe bet at this point given Kentucky’s unpredictable season to date is to assume all scenarios are still on the table.
KENTUCKY FOOTBALL BOWL PROJECTIONS
ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Gator Bowl vs. Notre Dame
ESPN (Mark Schlabach): Music City Bowl vs. Minnesota
The Athletic (Stewart Mandel and Scott Dochterman): Music City Bowl vs. Illinois
USA Today (Erick Smith): Las Vegas Bowl vs. Utah
Athlon (Steve Lassan): Gator Bowl vs. Notre Dame
CBSSports (Jerry Palm): Texas Bowl vs. Baylor
The Sporting News (Bill Bender): ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Purdue
Action Network (Brett McMurphy): ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Iowa
Sports Illustrated (Richard Johnson): Liberty Bowl vs. Kansas
NEXT GAME
No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky
When: 3:30 p.m. Saturday
TV: CBS-27
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Records: Georgia 10-0 (7-0 SEC), Kentucky 6-4 (3-4)
Series: Georgia leads 61-12-2 Last meeting: Georgia won 30-13 on Oct. 16, 2021, in Athens, Ga.
The secret to Georgia’s football success? Kirby Smart’s recruiting obsession.
Should Rich Scangarello have run QB more? Health of Will Levis complicates question.
Offensive changes, transfer portal movement and other takeaways from Mark Stoops’ presser
Blue Preview: Can Kentucky fight its way off the mat vs. No. 1 Georgia?
The John Clay Podcast: Reviewing Kentucky football’s shocking loss to Vanderbilt
