Why turmoil in Russia could send oil prices even lower
Crude oil prices were trading as much as 1% higher on Monday after Russia's private army Wagner Group aborted its march towards Moscow, averting what may have been an attempted coup on Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
The price action going forward depends on how the weekend's short-lived turmoil plays out from here.
“The events in Russia lead the market to consider how much Russian oil production and exports could have been affected if Wagner took more territory or if Russia fell into a civil war,” Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates told Yahoo Finance.
“A contrarian view is that this is bearish [for] the oil markets because Putin will try to export every bit of Russian oil he can sell in order to raise money to pay off his supporters and keep the army on his side,” added the analyst.
The developments in Russia have been closely watched, given crude’s volatility in 2022 following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Prices have declined considerably since their peak last year when West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) went past $120 per barrel and Brent (BZ-F) futures surpassed $130.
On Monday WTI was trading around $70/barrel while Brent hovered above $74/barrel.
"Crude oil - commodities are in a bear market,” Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro analyst, told Yahoo Finance Live on Monday.
“The key question you have to ask yourself is what’s going to stop this and save it," he added.
McGlone believes oil is far from bottoming, given that the Federal Reserve is still tightening its monetary policy in an effort to cool the economy and bring inflation back down to 2%.
“I see crude oil heading towards $50, maybe even $40. Natural gas has already done that. It went from $10 to $2," he added.
Crude's pullback over the last year comes as central banks raise interest rates to try to tame inflation, resulting in tighter credit conditions and raising concerns of a recession. China’s recovery from strict COVID lockdowns last year has also been lackluster, hurting demand.
Prices have fallen despite Saudi Arabia announcing it would unilaterally cut production by 1 million per day. This follows a surprise output reduction announcedby the world's largest exporters and their allies (OPEC+) in early April.
“Typically what happens when OPEC cuts supply is that happens in bear markets. They’re responding to what they see in the macro,” added Bloomberg Intelligence's McGlone.
WTI and Brent are both trading roughly 20% lower over the last year.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter at Yahoo Finance. You can follow her on Twitter @ines_ferre
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