Why Texas Tech could be challenging basketball matchup for Kansas State Wildcats

THE DETAILS

When: 1 p.m. Saturday

Where: Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan

TV: ESPN2

Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in Wichita

Betting line: K-State by 6

Over/Under: 144

STARTING LINEUPS

About Texas Tech (10-8, 0-6):

The Red Raiders are having a disappointing season. Many expected Texas Tech to be one of the better teams in the Big 12 and compete for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Instead, the team is off to a 10-8 start and still searching for its first conference victory of the season. But those numbers might be a bit deceiving, as Texas Tech played most of those games without starting forward Fardaws Aimaq. The Red Raiders have also only lost one Big 12 game by double digits. Their defense has dropped a bit from recent seasons, but they still rank in the top 50 nationally in terms of efficiency. Kevin Obanor leads the team with 15.1 points per game.

About Kansas State (16-2, 5-1):

The Wildcats are coming off their most emotional victory of the season, an 83-82 overtime thriller against the Kansas Jayhawks. K-State is off to its best start in decades thanks to the stellar play of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. Desi Sills has also come on strong of late as the team’s sixth man. He scored a whopping 24 points against KU. The Wildcats could benefit from having forward David N’Guessan back in the lineup for this game. He hasn’t played due to injury since a game against Radford on Dec. 21, but his health is trending in the right direction and he is close to a return.

Prediction

At first glance, this looks like an easy victory for K-State.

The Wildcats sit atop the Big 12 standings with Kansas and Iowa State at 5-1. They are also coming off their biggest win of the season and are ranked No. 13 in the national polls. Surely they will beat a struggling Texas Tech team that hasn’t won a single conference game this year. Right?

Maybe. But I don’t think this game will be a gimme for the Wildcats.

Dig a little deeper, and this might actually be one of the toughest home games on their schedule.

Yes, the Red Raiders are having a disappointing season and they are riding a six-game losing streak. But it’s not like they are hapless. Five of Texas Tech’s league losses have come by single digits. And they have played most of their games this season without starting forward Fardaws Aimaq. The 6-foot-11 senior was in the lineup for Texas Tech’s past two games, and it made a big difference as he averaged 12 points and seven rebounds in them.

His production could increase against a K-State defense that has done little at times to stop opposing big men.

Texas Tech’s ability to create turnovers on 21.9% of their defensive possessions could also give it an edge in this matchup.

The Red Raiders are still playing hard, despite their struggles, and they will be desperate to get a win on Saturday.

That makes this a difficult situational spot for the Wildcats. Will they experience any kind of hangover after beating the Jayhawks in an emotional thriller earlier this week? It can be hard for teams to stay motivated after taking part in a court-storming, especially when the next opponent on the schedule is in last place.

Small sample size, but K-State has gone 3-2 in games following its past five wins in the Sunflower Showdown.

Furthermore, there is reason for K-State to look past Texas Tech and be distracted by its next game at Iowa State on Tuesday.

The good news for K-State is that a good crowd is still expected to show up and support the team. It will benefit from a home-court advantage. Keyontae Johnson also rarely has bad games. Even when he is off, you can count on 15 points from him. Markquis Nowell has been in a mini-slump of late as a scorer, and he may be motivated to end that trend.

It’s also a good omen that K-State was able to protect its home court in a 65-57 win against Oklahoma State immediately after pulling off a big win at Baylor.

The Wildcats are the better team, but this feels like a bad situation to back them against the spread.

I expect Texas Tech to keep this game close enough to cover.

K-State 74, Texas Tech 72

Last game prediction: KU 76, K-State 73.

Season record: 13-5.

Season record against the spread: 11-7.