Why is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slipping in NBA MVP race despite Thunder leading the West?

Nikola Jokic scored 35 points and grabbed 16 rebounds Tuesday night in Denver’s win at Minnesota, widening his lead in the MVP race and narrowing the Thunder’s margin atop the Western Conference.

I was wrong about the MVP race.

For a while now I’ve thought Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would win the award if the Thunder finished higher than the Nuggets, and especially if the Thunder got the No. 1 seed.

That’s looking less and less likely. With 15 games to play, it’s a toss-up between the Thunder and Nuggets (and Timberwolves) as to which team will finish atop the West. But the MVP race, according to the betting markets, is not even close to a coin flip.

As of Wednesday morning, Jokic is an overwhelming -320 favorite to win his third MVP, according to FanDuel. A $100 bet on Jokic to win MVP would only yield $31.25.

Gilgeous-Alexander has the second-best odds at +460. A $100 winning bet on SGA would net $460.

Dallas’ Luka Doncic (+800), Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (+3000), Boston’s Jayson Tatum (+5500) and Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards (+12000) are the only other players on FanDuel’s MVP board.

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Here’s the case for each.

Jokic: He’s inarguably the best player in the world, and the Nuggets have played like the defending champs since the All-Star break.

Gilgeous-Alexander: He finished fifth in MVP voting on a 40-42 team that missed the playoffs last year. He’s been even better this year, and the Thunder winning the West would be the most surprising result of the season from a team perspective.

I don’t have a vote this year. I’ll probably put out my fake ballot at the end of the season, but I’m not ready to decide with 18% of the season left.

I do think the race is closer than it appears.

Jokic: 67 games, 34.4 minutes, 26 points, 12.3 rebounds, 9 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.9 blocks, 58.2% FG, 35.4% 3FG, 82.5% FT

Gilgeous-Alexander: 66 games, 34.5 minutes, 30.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 2 steals, 0.9 blocks, 54.4% FG, 37.3% 3FG, 87.5% FT

SGA is second in points per game, Jokic is 14th. Jokic is third in rebounds and fourth in assists. Gilgeous-Alexander is 60th in rebounds and 17th in assists. SGA leads the league in steals and averages 2.9 steals+blocks per game. Jokic averages 2.2 steals+blocks per game. Jokic has been more efficient, but he’s also a point-center. Gilgeous-Alexander is the most efficient scoring guard in the league.

“The last two seasons he’s taken a major jump as a defender,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said Tuesday after practice. “He has continually honed his efficiency. Year over year he just becomes more and more efficient. As the usage goes up, or as the points per game go up, the efficiency doesn’t drop. That’s very impressive. He’s not just collecting numbers.”

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Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic are vastly different players, but SGA has a Jokic-esque quality to his game.

“You’ve seen other individual players rise alongside him, which is what I think great players do,” Daigneault said. “Not only do they make other people better, but they allow other people to be better with the space they create both interpersonally with the team and with how they play.”

With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook before him, don’t get numb to what SGA is doing. We’ve been spoiled by a revolving door of superstars playing in Oklahoma City, but it’s not normal to have one of those guys, much less three in a 16-year span. Four if you count Paul George. Or five with Chris Paul.

Gilgeous-Alexander has entrenched himself as a top-five player in the world, but the big man in Denver has the best-player belt, and good luck trying to take it from him.

The West will be decided in the final 15 games, and to an increasingly lesser extent, so will the MVP race.

I was wrong about the MVP race, but the Thunder getting the No. 1 seed would be the best closing argument for SGA’s case.

“What he’s done in his career to this point and what he’s done for our team this season doesn’t need to be validated by an award,” Daigneault said. “It stands on its own two feet. If he wins it, great, and that’s downstream of our team and him. But if he doesn’t win it, it doesn’t take anything away from the impact that he’s had or the player he’s turned himself into.”

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Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Shai Gilgejous-Alexander slipping in MVP race despite Thunder's rise