Why Rich Scangarello thinks Mississippi State could be start of UK’s offensive breakout

Rich Scangarello’s theory is about to be put to the test.

When reviewing the film of Kentucky football’s Oct. 1 loss at Ole Miss, the Wildcats’ offensive coordinator could not help but feel like his unit was close to clicking on all cylinders. Yes, Kentucky had lost 22-19 in Oxford, but Kentucky reached the red zone on two fourth-quarter drives with a chance to tie or take the lead before losing fumbles.

“We lost the game, but I liked the way the line played, I liked how we ran the ball, I liked our physicality. I liked the way there were a lot of plays where 11 guys did the right thing,” Scangarello said. “We had four or five plays that changed that game. I can’t have that happen, but I felt like we were striding forward and momentum was pushing to this offense, it was about to break out.”

Three days after the loss, Scangarello told reporters his experience suggested Kentucky was nearing the point — typically four or five games into a season — when things started to fully click when learning the offensive scheme he brought to Lexington from the San Francisco 49ers.

Then South Carolina happened.

With star quarterback Will Levis sidelined by a foot injury, Kentucky’s offense went ultraconservative — outside of a botched reverse on the first play that resulted in a fumble and South Carolina touchdown — with redshirt freshman quarterback Kaiya Sheron making his first career start. That strategy was not pretty but had the Wildcats in the game at halftime.

After South Carolina dominated the third quarter to take a two-possession lead, the offense without Levis proved incapable of playing from behind. The result was a 24-14 loss and one of the worst offensive performances since Kentucky started its run of six consecutive bowl berths in 2016.

Whether the South Carolina performance exposed season-long concerns about poor offensive line play, mistakes caused by inexperience at skill positions and a plodding pace of play or was a fluke likely depends on whether Scangarello was right about the offense turning a corner with Levis at Ole Miss.

The good news for Kentucky is Levis now appears likely to play against No. 16 Mississippi State this weekend.

“Right now it seems like he’ll be healthy, barring any setbacks,” UK Coach Mark Stoops said of Levis on Wednesday’s SEC teleconference. “Obviously, that brings a lot of energy to our team.”

Kentucky offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello has predicted a breakout could be coming for his offense.

Assuming Levis does play Saturday, Scangarello’s offense should have the chance to prove the offensive coordinator’s optimism was not misplaced.

Levis and running back Chris Rodriguez have been on the field for just 40 plays this season, all of them at Ole Miss when Rodriguez was still shaking off the rust from a four-game suspension. The Wildcats have started their first-choice offensive line grouping in just three of the six games this season, but there is hope normal starting right tackle Jeremy Flax might be able to play against Mississippi State after missing the South Carolina game with a hamstring injury.

Wide receivers Tayvion Robinson (leg) and Dane Key (hand) both picked up injuries in the second half against South Carolina but were on the pre-Mississippi State depth chart released Monday. Robinson was not available for interviews this week, but Key told reporters the hard cast he was wearing on his left hand should be gone before the game.

“I feel like everybody in there is a little mad because we haven’t been playing how we should,” Key said. “We haven’t been playing how we know how we can ball. I feel like we really have something to prove these next few weeks, especially this week.”

Slowing Mississippi State’s offense, which totaled 568 yards in a win over Arkansas last week and has recorded at least 450 yards in four of six games this season, will be the task of the Kentucky defense, but it is likely Scangarello’s offense will need to exceed its 26.3 points per game from the first half of the season if Kentucky is to snap its losing streak.

With Levis back, there is hope for a turnaround again.

Kentucky ranks 129 of 131 teams nationally in sacks allowed (25). Levis accounted for 19 of those sacks. His last appearance for Kentucky included foot and finger injuries.

For the offense to make the strides Scangarello predicted, Levis has to stay healthy. Step one in that quest starts Saturday.

“I’m not going to knee-jerk,” Scangarello said. “I know what we have. I know the team was trending the right way against Ole Miss. It just takes focus. A little more effort and detail and better coaching on our part, and I think we’ll come out this week and put on a hell of a product on the field.”