Why one CEO is swearing off making economic forecasts
Good morning.
Key European countries such as Germany and France this week posted higher than expected GDP growth, fueling hopes that the EU has turned a corner and can contribute to a rise in global demand. But when I asked Accenture’s CEO for EMEA Jean-Marc Ollagnier to talk about the implications of this news, he was surprisingly cautious.
“The macro environment is difficult to read. It’s a huge exercise in humility,” Ollagnier told me by phone from Paris.
He didn’t engage in macro-economic forecasts, either. “I’m not that sure that I can tell what will happen next,” he said. "We’ve learned that what happens in the world can surprise us a lot.” Ollagnier says he stays away from making predictions—unlike business leaders of the past—because there are no macro-economic forecasting models that can “grasp” the kind of events we’ve lived through since COVID. “Wage inflation, geopolitics, energy price fluctuation, a couple of wars...I’m not sure any model that we are living with can deal with that,” he said. “We have to accept some level of uncertainty.”
Ollagnier told me that many other CEOs have embraced this “careful” attitude as well, focusing instead on what they can control. “Many in my peer group acknowledge that we don’t have complete clarity,” he said.
Accenture labels itself a tech company so the one driver it is crystal clear on is the advance and impact of technology and generative AI. In Europe alone, gen AI could boost GDP growth by up to 0.6% per year in the next decades, the firm said this week.
“We are more certain about that, than frankly, the macroeconomic environment around it,” Ollagnier said. “When I graduated from computer science, technology was part of the engine of change, but there were many others. Today, it has never been so central across all the value chain.”
Separately, here’s Dow CEO Jim Fitterling on the role of Fortune in a changing world:
“Fortune is an important and balanced convener—providing a platform for leaders to collectively engage in important conversations around issues that are impacting our businesses, society and sustainability. It acknowledges our collective challenges, while stressing the importance of profitable AND sustainable investment. As we pursue our own ambitions around growth, innovation, sustainability, inclusion and other topics, and navigate the complexities of the geopolitical and macro environment, we are fortunate to engage with Fortune readers and look forward to continuing this partnership for years to come.”
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Peter Vanham
peter.vanham@fortune.com
@petervanham
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
