Why Ole Miss women can, can’t reach Final Four in 2024 March Madness predictions

OXFORD — Ole Miss women's basketball coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin hugged her husband after the Rebels landed their third consecutive March Madness bid Sunday.

"Then I said see you tomorrow," McPhee-McCuin said with a laugh.

She was looking forward to a long night of diving deep into the seventh-seeded Rebels' first-round opponent, No. 10 Marquette (23-8) out of the Big East. The game, at host Notre Dame, is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. CT Saturday (ESPNU).

Beating the Golden Eagles is the first step if Ole Miss (23-8) hopes to one-up last year's run to the Sweet 16. Can it crack the Elite Eight for the sixth time in program history? Or maybe even the Final Four for the first time ever?

Let's make the case for and against it.

Ole Miss women's basketball is on upswing heading into March Madness

To evaluate Ole Miss' body of work as a whole is to underestimate its overall strength.

Few teams closed the season on a better run than the Rebels, who won seven in a row before losing a close battle to LSU in the SEC tournament semifinals.

In doing so, they've looked like the most complete team that McPhee-McCuin has coached in her time leading the program. The Rebels have three truly talented scorers in Madison Scott, Marquesha Davis and Kennedy Todd-Williams.

Todd-Williams' improvement as the season progressed is one of the biggest reasons why the Rebels are a threat. Since Jan. 21, she's averaging 13.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists while shooting 37.9% from 3-point range.

Ole Miss women's basketball's interior presence gives it a high floor in 2024 NCAA Tournament

Defensively, the Rebels are capable of making it difficult on just about anyone, as they showed last season. And they can cope when their shots don't fall. They average more than 15 offensive rebounds and shoot nearly 23 free throws per game.

It is going to take more than just a bad shooting performance to beat the Rebels, who are 7-4 this season when they shoot under 38% as a team.

MATCHUP: Ole Miss women’s basketball to face Marquette to open March Madness in 2024 NCAA Tournament

Ole Miss women have limited offensive upside for Final Four run

On paper, this Ole Miss team looks better than last season's, but that doesn't mean it is without limitations.

On a season-wide scale, Ole Miss' offensive numbers match up poorly with the elite teams it's about to compete against. The Rebels shoot 41.7% from the field, which ranks 129th in the country.

A typical path to victory against one of college basketball's elite — to which No. 1 South Carolina, on the opposite half of the bracket, and No. 2 Notre Dame certainly belong — usually involves strong 3-point shooting. And the triple is simply not a weapon the Rebels have in their arsenal. Only five teams in the country make fewer 3-point shots than the Rebels on a per-game basis.

Both Marquette and Notre Dame shoot the 3 at a 35% clip or better. The Rebels must drag both of those teams down in 3-point efficiency to beat them.

Ole Miss women's basketball doesn't usually fare well against the nation's elite

Even in the past three seasons, each of which has concluded with a trip to the NCAA tournament, it has been difficult for the Rebels to topple the game's top teams.

Ole Miss went 1-5 against top-30 NET teams this season. It is 3-19 in those matchups the past three seasons.

March Madness Final Four prediction: Ole Miss women fall short

The Rebels should beat Marquette. But it's always difficult to predict a team that is not a host to go beyond the second round because it means beating one of the 16 best teams in the country on that team's home court. Notre Dame in the round of 32 looks like the most likely stopping point for the Rebels.

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

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This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss women in Final Four? Prediction for 2024 March Madness, NCAAs