Why the odds are in Joe Biden's favor for a second term as President | Opinion

Recent polls show President Joe Biden in a tough reelection bid against ex-President Donald Trump. Some key Democrats are suggesting Biden step aside in favor of a new face, or perhaps a younger nominee. But is it a good idea? It’s time to look at the historical evidence to see if a President should run for another full term, or step aside for someone else.

Barack Obama’s former adviser David Axelrod noted this on X: “It’s very late to change horses; a lot will happen in the next year that no one can predict & Biden’s team says his resolve to run is firm. He’s defied common wisdom before but this will send tremors of doubt thru the party–not ‘bed-wetting, but legitimate concern.”

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Axelrod believes that Joe Biden’s age is coming into play, but “his biggest liability is the one thing he can’t change.” He also warns that Donald Trump “is a dangerous, unhinged demagogue whose brazen disdain for the rules, norms, laws and institutions or democracy should be disqualifying.” With “the stakes of miscalculation…too dramatic to ignore,” he believes that Joe Biden needs to make a very unselfish decision sooner versus later.

That story, found in “SheKnows” and a host of other sites, has Axelrod pointing out that there is no shortage of good Democratic Party candidates who could take Biden’s place, and not face the same age concerns.

This, of course, presumes that Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris or perhaps one of the other candidates from 2020, like Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker or even Pete Buttigieg could simply step in and improve upon the current White House occupant’s numbers.

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What we need are not snap polls in battleground states for detailed analysis, but perhaps a little historical evidence. To provide this, I look at all of the cases in American history where the President could run for reelection, but chose not to, and how well their party performed in the next election. Examples would include where President Lyndon B. Johnson announced he would not seek another term, and let Vice-President Hubert Humphrey run in his place in 1968. The Democrats under Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon in that contest. Other cases include Harry Truman in 1952, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1880, James Buchanan in 1860, and Franklin Pierce in 1856.

I then compare them to all cases where a president runs for reelection when given the opportunity. These include Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1984, and Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Using these cases, I found that in 32 times where a President of the United States sought reelection, he prevailed 21 times, nearly two out of every three situations Biden finds himself in.

It’s as different story when the President steps down from the top of the ticket. More often than not, his party loses the White House. In only four of 12 times does the party manage to hang on to the Presidency after its occupant elects not to try again.

The economy is doing better, inflation is down, and President Biden is not backing down against authoritarians and terrorist groups. His GOP opponents knock the President’s age, while their frontrunner is almost the same age, and shows far more signs of mental decline. Democrats should stick with Biden, and not panic at early adverse surveys.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Ga. His views are his own, and do not speak for LaGrange College faculty, students, staff or administration.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Why Joe BIden should run for a second term and not step aside