Why the Memphis Grizzlies could be due for some good luck at NBA draft lottery | Giannotto

The Memphis Grizzlies have really only gotten lucky twice in the NBA draft lottery.

The first instance is all too infamous, when the franchise had the sixth-best odds entering the 2009 lottery and wound up with the No. 2 pick in the draft. It then selected Hasheem Thabeet, who is now remembered simply as an all-time draft blunder.

The other stroke of good fortune occurred in 2019, when the Grizzlies had the eighth-best odds in the draft lottery and moved all the way up to No. 2. In came Ja Morant, and a franchise that seemed directionless following the dismantling of the Core Four era suddenly had a North Star.

Five years later, the Grizzlies aren’t in need of another superstar so long as Morant can stay healthy long enough to re-establish himself as one. But Memphis sure does seem like it’s due for some good luck after how the past year or so went.

So what do you say, stewards of the NBA’s annual ping pong ball extravaganza? How about the team with the seventh-best odds in Sunday's NBA draft lottery (2 p.m., ABC) moves into the top four? Is that too much to ask in what’s considered a weak draft class, particularly at the top? The San Antonio Spurs don’t have to be the only small market team that always seems to get the right bounces in this exercise in probabilities.

This pick, or the Grizzlies' odds to get a certain pick, was one of the few tangible rewards to emerge from the hell this past season turned into for the franchise. Sure, the emergence of Vince Williams Jr. was nice and GG Jackson’s breakout almost felt like another first-round pick given his age and the dart throw Memphis took picking him in the second round a year ago.

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But Grizzlies General Manager Zach Kleiman made clear months ago this pick is what will help shape his offseason plans. Back at the trade deadline, he called the Grizzlies’ potential draft positioning “the driver … of what comes next.”

This is when the offseason can actually begin.

Memphis could move up as high as No. 1 in the draft. It could fall as low as No. 11. It can't be No. 5 or No. 6, and it's most likely to be No. 8, No. 7 or No. 9 (in that order).

Will the Grizzlies pick a center? Will they pick a shooter? Will they pull off a big deal? It'll all start to come into focus after Sunday.

“Let's see where that pick lands, and then we can decide,” Kleiman said in February. “We're not going to be locked into a position. We want to see where that is, what players stand out at that point of the draft, and what trade possibilities there are. And then from there, we'll figure out the next step. It's a unique asset for a team that has the talent that we already have to potentially have a pick that is in that range of the draft.”

That’s, of course, why this doesn’t feel quite like 2019 or 2002 or any of the other years Memphis had a season that landed it in the draft lottery. The closest parallel might be 2010, when the Grizzlies were on the precipice of the Grit and Grind era, had the 12th-best lottery odds, landed the No. 12 pick and chose … Xavier Henry.

Henry played all of 38 games in Memphis, part of a string of underwhelming first-round selections made by the previous front office led by former General Manager Chris Wallace.

The Grizzlies expect to be competing with the best in the Western Conference just as soon as next season starts. This draft pick, or the trade this draft pick helps facilitate, is the most straightforward way to improve the roster from where it is now.

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Kleiman and company have used the draft to their advantage and they haven’t needed high picks – outside of Morant – to do it. Morant and Brandon Clarke (No. 21) in 2019. Desmond Bane (No. 30) in 2020, Santi Aldama (No. 30) in 2021, Vince Williams (No. 47) in 2022 and Jackson (No. 45) in 2023 are all projected to be stars or rotation players on next season's roster.

Those last two, in particular, stood out because their rise this season finally represented a stop to the string of misfortune that befell the Grizzlies, really from the moment Morant told the NBA world they were “fine in the West” in December 2022.

Then came the reports of Morant’s offcourt missteps, major injuries to Steven Adams and Clarke, Morant's first suspension, the embarrassing playoff loss to the Lakers, Morant’s second gun-related incident and subsequent 25-game suspension, that terrible start to the 2023-24 season, and eventually Morant’s season-ending injury in January.

It's about time these Grizzlies caught a break again.

You can reach Commercial Appeal columnist Mark Giannotto via email at mgiannotto@gannett.com and follow him on X: @mgiannotto

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis Grizzlies could be due for good luck at NBA draft lottery