Why Kentucky football fans should not worry about Mark Stoops leaving for Nebraska
John Calipari and Mark Stoops might have seemingly moved on from their summer feud, but national college football reporters clearly have not forgotten the spat.
Following Nebraska’s decision to fire football coach Scott Frost on Sunday, Stoops has popped up on a number of lists of possible candidates to be the Cornhuskers’ next coach.
BetOnline established Stoops as the third-most likely candidate for the job with 5-1 odds, behind only Iowa State Coach Matt Campbell (4-1 odds) and interim coach Mickey Joseph (9-2). Reporters from ESPN, Yahoo Sports, The Athletic, CBS Sports, USA Today and The Sporting News all included Stoops on their lists of candidates to replace Frost.
Calipari’s summer assessment that Kentucky remains a basketball school and should allocate financial resources accordingly was a common theme in the justifications for putting Stoops on those lists.
“You want to go to a football school, or you want to be at a basketball school?” Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports said in a video analysis of the Nebraska opening. “You want John Calipari to decide what your team, what your school is about, or do you want to go to a place where it’s 100% a football university?”
Calipari’s comment clearly frustrated Stoops, leading him to swipe back at the Hall of Fame basketball coach first on Twitter, and then in a fiery press conference, but connecting Stoops to the Nebraska job on that basis alone seems tenuous.
There are undoubtedly jobs that would tempt Stoops to leave Lexington, even as he establishes his team as an SEC contender, but does Nebraska qualify? Probably not.
Mark Stoops’ contract
At Kentucky, Stoops is already among the highest paid coaches in the country. His most recent contract extension pays him $6.75 million this season, significantly more than the $5 million per year Nebraska originally agreed to pay Frost before agreeing to a salary reduction. Stoops’ UK salary increases by $250,000 per year through through 2027-28 when he’ll be paid $8 million.
Stoops’ contract is among the most coach-friendly deals in the country. It includes a $250,000 bonus for each win starting at No. 9 in a season, an automatic one-year extension every time he wins seven games and a two-year extension every time he wins 10 games. His buyout is $1.75 million if he leaves at any time with five or more full years remaining on the contract.
Other Kentucky football spending
The commitment to Stoops is not the only recent financial commitment UK has made to football. In fact, it was the spending on football facilities that in part sparked Calipari’s comments as he was pushing for a new basketball practice facility. Earlier this year, UK approved the construction of a new indoor track facility that will also include a renovation of the football indoor practice field that is currently shared with the track program. Stoops’ last contract extension also included a clause that requires UK to spend no less than $6.5 million per year on salaries for his 10 full-time assistant coaches. For the first time, UK’s offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and recruiting coordinator are set to be paid more than $1 million per year in 2023.
On-field success
Even if Kentucky is still perceived as a basketball school, it hasn’t stopped Stoops from building his program into a player on the national scene. After Saturday’s win at Florida, Kentucky moved into the top 10 of the Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since 2007. No. 1 Georgia still maintains a significant gap over the rest of the SEC East, but Kentucky is currently the third-highest ranked SEC team. That would put the Wildcats in position for a Sugar Bowl bid if both Georgia and Alabama are in the College Football Playoff.
Nebraska might have five national championships, but it has not won one since 1997. The Cornhuskers have not won 10 games since 2012. Kentucky has won 10 games twice in that span. Stoops’ track record suggests he could build Nebraska into a contender, but how long would it take? And would the path to the playoff actually be clearer than at Kentucky, which is closer to his natural recruiting base in Ohio?
If not Nebraska, then which job could convince Mark Stoops to leave Kentucky?
None of this is to say Stoops will definitely stay at Kentucky for the rest of his coaching career.
Changes to the college football landscape will undoubtedly present new challenges for the Wildcats that could change Stoops’ perception of the job in the coming years. If there is an area where the “basketball school” perception matters it is probably in name, image and likeness. Quarterback Will Levis has proven there will be no shortage of NIL opportunities for star Kentucky football players, but Stoops has been open about the struggles to match the NIL guarantees being made to high school recruits at other programs. If NIL remains the driving force in recruiting, Stoops will have to determine if his recent recruiting success can be sustained in Lexington.
The addition of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC is almost certain to signal the end of the divisions. Stoops and UK have been among the most vocal opponents to expanding the SEC schedule to nine games, but that move seems more likely than not at this point. The path to 10 wins is less clear if Kentucky has to regularly play the current West Division teams, who are 15-5 against UK in the Stoops era.
In the same way that Kentucky basketball is a job that any coach has to at least consider when approached, the powerhouse football programs that combine historic relevance with recent success would be difficult to turn down for Stoops. Those are the jobs almost every coach wants though, so there is no guarantee Stoops will ever be the top candidate at those programs.
Stoops’ Ohio roots would make him an interesting candidate for Midwest powers Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Notre Dame the next time they open if he continues winning at Kentucky. His extensive experience coaching in Florida would make him a fit for Florida State, Florida or Miami, but those jobs have already opened in recent years without Stoops either being the top candidate or expressing enough interest to be seriously pursued.
The wild card job for Stoops’ future at Kentucky is Iowa, his alma mater. When Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz retires, Stoops is certain to be among the top candidates. The investments in football at Kentucky make it unclear if Iowa is a better job anymore, but it was clear before Kentucky played Iowa in the Citrus Bowl last season Stoops retains deep affection for the program.
The good news for Kentucky fans is for Stoops to be considered a top candidate for any of the jobs that could realistically lure him from Lexington, UK will have had to continue its upward trend. There is little use worrying about whether Stoops will leave one day instead of enjoying the unprecedented success on its own merits.
Nebraska does not look like a big enough threat for that heartbreak to spend any time distracted from what looks like a special 2022 season for the Wildcats.
Next game
Youngstown State at No. 9 Kentucky
When: Noon Saturday
TV: SEC Network
Records: Kentucky 2-0, Youngstown State 2-0
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: First meeting
