Why Indiana women's basketball can reach Final Four in 2024 March Madness predictions
BLOOMINGTON — The Indiana women’s basketball team will likely have to go through multiple conference champions to make the program’s first ever Final Four.
The No. 4 seed Hoosers (24-5) open the 2024 NCAA tournament at Assembly Hall on Saturday when they host No. 13 Fairfield (31-1).
They have a tough road ahead in the Albany regional with a showdown against the No. 1 overall seed South Carolina a real possibility.
Can IU beat the odds and reach the Final Four? Will the Hoosiers suffer another early upset like they did last year? Here’s reasons why they can — and can’t — make it to Cleveland:
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Mackenzie Holmes is still one of the best players in country
Indiana coach Teri Moren knows her team’s best chance is having a healthy Mackenzie Holmes dominating in the post.
Holmes (knee) returned to practice over the weekend without any limitations. The All-American forward battled a similar injury last year during tournament time and was forced to sit out in the opening round.
“We feel like we have the best five-man in the country,” Moren said, with pride on Sunday night.
Holmes led the team with 20.0 points (66.7%) and 6.9 rebounds per game. She averaged fewer minutes than she did each of the last three seasons, but she will have a heavier workload in the coming weeks as long as she’s healthy.
Indiana is 50-7 when she scores 20 or more points.
Indiana’s lineup full of shooters could help the program reach new heights
Indiana had a three-game stretch during conference play when it averaged 11 made 3-pointers while shooting 54.1% from long range.
It was the Hoosiers' most sustained run of success from 3-point range, but far from an isolated incident. They shot better than 50% in five other games with at least 15 attempts.
Moren’s goal in building IU’s roster around Holmes was surrounding her with capable shooters. She hit the jackpot in the portal with the additions of Sara Scalia, who set IU’s single-season 3-point record this season — and Sydney Parrish.
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The continued development of Chloe Moore-McNeil and Yarden Garzon has made the starting lineup all the more dangerous. Moore-McNeil shot 54.5% from 3-point range over the team’s last seven games while Garzon averaged 2.2 made 3-pointers during conference play.
It’s easy to envision a path to the Final Four if everything clicks into place for IU’s shooters.
Top-seeded South Carolina is tough roadblock
South Carolina lost all five starters from last year’s Final Four team.
It didn’t matter.
The Gamecocks were the deserving No. 1 overall seed as the only unbeaten team left in the country. They didn’t look back after knocking off Notre Dame 100-71 in their season-opener.
Their average margin of victory during the regular season was 29.8 points and they beat multiple Power 5 opponents (Clemson and Kentucky) by more than 60 points. They only played four games in the regular season decided by single-digits.
South Carolina can easily counter Mackenzie Holmes’ presence in the paint with forward Kamilia Cardoso.
The 6-foot-7 senior earned first-team All-SEC honors and the conference’s defensive player of the year award. She’s a big reason why the team leads the country with 8.0 blocks per game and is holding opponents to 32.0% shooting.
The Gamecocks also benefit from having one of the deepest rosters in the country with nine players averaging double-digit minutes.
Oklahoma won’t be an easy out at Assembly Hall
Oklahoma probably won’t be fazed by the raucous atmosphere at Assembly Hall.
The Sooners regrouped after losing five of six during its non-conference schedule to win their second straight Big 12 regular season title.
They might be one of the more battle-tested teams in the tournament having played the 11th-toughest schedule in the country, 15 of 31 games they played were against teams that made the tournament.
Oklahoma knocked off a Texas team that earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament twice and have the third-best national winning percentage against NET Top 25 teams.
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Senior guard Skylar Vann won Big 12 co-player of the year averaging a team-high 14.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Fellow guard Payton Verhulst, a Louisville transfer, won the conference’s newcomer of the year award. The Sooners have a well-balanced roster with 10 players averaging 10-plus minutes a game.
March Madness Final Four prediction: Indiana women’s basketball falls to South Carolina in Albany regional
Indiana gets to the Sweet Sixteen for the third time in four years, but that’s the end of the road. It took a 41-point performance from Caitlin Clark to sink the Gamecocks last year in the tournament and she attempted 31 shots in that game. The Hoosiers just aren’t built that way. It’s just hard to see them advancing unless Holmes or Scalia have a career effort.
Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.
This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Indiana women in Final Four? Prediction for 2024 March Madness, NCAAs
