Why Democrats are preparing to run on abortion rights in Texas' 2024 Senate race

Democrats vying to take on GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas have been running hard on abortion rights ahead of Tuesday's primary. But that isn’t just a message they're narrow-casting to a liberal primary electorate.

Of the almost dozen states with competitive Senate races this year, abortion is most restricted in Texas, where a near-total ban on the procedure took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. And Democrats are planning to lean into the issue as they take on Cruz, whom they view as uniquely vulnerable after he won re-election by just 3 percentage points in 2018.

“It is an issue that’s affecting virtually every race that we’re going to have here in Texas,” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa told NBC News in a phone interview.

Running and winning on the abortion issue would be a major twist in Texas, which has been electing and re-electing staunchly anti-abortion Republicans at the statewide level for years. Republicans believe the state still broadly opposes abortion rights and argue that voters view Democrats as extreme on the issue.

But Democrats argue that the post-Roe changes in state law have sparked real fears among Texas women and Texans more broadly — and that Republicans will pay a price in November.

Before they make their case against Cruz, though, Democrats first need to pick a nominee.

Tuesday’s primary features nine Democrats, with Rep. Colin Allred leading the field in both fundraising and public polling.

Allred has mentioned abortion in each of his three TV ads, with his first spot featuring the three-term congressman saying, “I’m running for Senate because the freedoms that we believe in as Texans are under attack, the freedom to vote, the freedom to get an abortion and the medical care that you need and the freedom to get ahead if you work hard and play by the rules.”

Allred, whose political career started by flipping a longtime Republican House district in the Dallas area in 2018, has also signaled that abortion policy will be his focus beyond the Tuesday primary if he becomes the nominee, taking aim at Cruz in his ads as well. Allred recently announced that his guest to the State of the Union will be an OB-GYN who had to leave Texas to receive an abortion.

Although Allred is considered the Democratic front-runner, he could be forced into a primary runoff in May, thanks in part to the crowded field and a spirited challenge from state Sen. Roland Gutierrez. An ardent progressive, Gutierrez represents the city of Uvalde, whose residents suffered through a tragic mass shooting at an elementary school in 2022.

Gutierrez said he also often brings up abortion on the campaign trail, telling NBC News in a phone interview that the issue is “top of our message.”

“We talk about what matters most to people at home,” he said. “Loose Republican gun laws are killing our kids. Absolutely, the attack on women’s reproductive freedom is killing women. We’ve got high infant mortality rates as well, because of what’s happening in this space in Texas.”

While both Democrats have called for a federal law protecting the right to an abortion and for codifying protections that existed under Roe v. Wade, there are some differences on how they plan to achieve that goal.

Gutierrez said Democrats “must bust the filibuster,” referring to the Senate’s 60-vote threshold to end debate on legislation. And he has also called for more justices to be added to the Supreme Court.

“What good is it to pass legislation when you have a Supreme Court that is controlled by [former President Donald] Trump appointees that are never going — where that legislation will never see the light of day?” Gutierrez said.

Allred said during a recent AFL-CIO debate that he would “reform” the filibuster, but he did not say if he would support expanding the high court to codify abortion rights.

Former state Sen. Wendy Davis, who has endorsed Allred and is a senior adviser to Planned Parenthood Texas Votes, told NBC News that Gutierrez’s proposals are “grand ideas,” but suggested they were not realistic.

“We’re going to be very lucky if we maintain the majority in the U.S. Senate. And we certainly don’t have enough members right now who are willing to get rid of the filibuster [and] expand the court,” Davis said.

A path to victory?

Republicans, meanwhile, are gearing up to paint the Democratic Party as one that is more extreme on the abortion issue.

"Texas is pro-life and Senator Cruz is pro-life. Colin Allred and the Democrats’ record on abortion is extreme and unpopular," Cruz campaign spokesperson Macarena Martinez said in a statement.

"Rep. Allred has voted in lockstep with the most radical fringes of his party, including voting to eliminate protections for children born alive after failed abortions and voting to trample on the Supreme Court’s constitutionally sound decision to return the issue to the states," Martinez added, pointing to Allred's "F" rating from the anti-abortion rights group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. "Allred’s extreme views do not align with those of Texans.”

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Philip Letsou added in a statement, "Both Democrats in this race are trying to outdo each other on who can more strongly advocate for taxpayer-funded abortions up until the moment of birth.” (Less than 1% of abortions occur after 21 weeks of pregnancy, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)

Asked how Democrats should respond to those potential GOP attacks, Davis said, “This is an issue about freedom — about personal freedom to make decisions about our own bodies."

The fight for abortion rights is not new for Texas Democrats, especially for Davis. It’s been more than a decade since Davis won national attention donning her running shoes to filibuster a 20-week abortion ban in the state Senate, which ultimately passed.

Still, Davis and other Democrats said the post-Roe environment is sparking new fears among women in Texas.

“I think there is a growing consensus of fear that this law is coming for you, no matter who you are, no matter what you may have thought your perspectives on abortion were previously,” Davis said. “And I think it will be a growing clarion call for a response.”

A majority of Texas voters — 54% — who cast ballots in the 2022 governor's race said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, per NBC News exit polling. And 51% said they were dissatisfied or angry with the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

More than a quarter of Texas voters — 27% — said abortion was their top issue in 2022, second only to inflation, which is a top issue for 28% of voters.

Still, Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who almost defeated Cruz in 2018, lost his race against GOP Gov. Greg Abbott by 11 percentage points.

Yet, Democrats say the issue could be a difference-maker this year, especially as abortion cases in Texas grab national headlines. One recent case involved a woman named Kate Cox, who attempted to receive an abortion in Texas after her fetus received a fatal diagnosis, but ultimately left the state for the procedure as her health deteriorated.

“Every single time we have a story like Kate Cox ... people are putting this back in their minds in really personal ways and seeing how extreme the realities are of the new status quo,” said Nancy Zdunkewicz, Gutierrez’s pollster, who also conducted polling for Planned Parenthood Texas Votes.

That’s why Democrats believe abortion will be a salient issue in November, even in a state with many socially conservative voters, including in the Hispanic community.

But Democrats are not concerned that focusing on abortion could alienate those voters.

“Hispanic families that are conservative, they don’t support the abortion issue. But they also understand that this is a decision that has to be made in the family, that no one should be telling people what to do. That the government shouldn’t step in to tell them what to do,” said Hinojosa, the state party chairman, noting his own mother opposes abortion but consistently supports Democrats.

Texas Democratic consultant Sonia Van Meter also noted the abortion issue could bring new voters to the polls.

“I am less concerned with us alienating social conservatives who frankly probably weren’t going to vote for us anyway and more concerned with making sure the message is getting out far and wide,” Van Meter said.