Why Biden needs another Bernie Sanders
Four years ago, as the 2020 primary elections were getting underway, candidate Joe Biden faced stiff competition from various factions of the Democratic Party. The young upstart Pete Buttigieg won the kickoff vote, the Iowa caucus, with Biden coming in fourth. Bernie Sanders won the second race, in New Hampshire, with Elizabeth Warren second and Biden third. Biden picked up steam after that, but he fought it out with other candidates until Sanders was the last challenger to drop out, in April 2020.
President Biden faces no meaningful opposition within his party now as he runs for reelection. But having the field to himself deprives Biden of more liberal competitors that make Biden look moderate by comparison.
Biden won the Democratic nomination in 2020 as a measured alternative to the socialistic Sanders and his progressive twin, Warren. That carried into the general election, where Biden the pragmatist contrasted with Donald Trump’s cloud of chaos. It worked. Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 vote among moderates and Independents — and it was those centrist votes that helped Biden beat Trump.
Without any competition among Democrats, 2024 Biden already seems to be more liberal than 2020 Biden. When Biden took office in 2021, his approval rating among Independents was 61%, four points higher than his overall approval rating, according to Gallup. That suggests moderate voters saw Biden as one of their own.
That has sharply reversed. Biden’s approval rating among Independents has plunged to 35%, six points lower than his overall approval rating. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why Biden’s standing with moderates has tanked. But his worst issue in the polls is immigration, with record flows of migrants across the southwest border generating a nationwide sense of crisis. Many voters also think Biden’s ardent support for green energy has pushed up the cost of gasoline and electricity, and otherwise contributed to inflation.
On these and other issues, Biden himself is now the new Bernie Sanders, the leftmost politician on the national stage.
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The 2020 Democratic primaries actually featured rich debate on a variety of important issues, and Biden’s positions often seemed the most sensible among Democrats. On healthcare, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren both favored “Medicare for All,” a complete overhaul of the healthcare system that would leave the federal government running everything. Biden rejected that in favor of a more incremental expansion of the Affordable Care Act — which he actually enacted as president, with no noticeable ruptures.
On taxes, Sanders and Warren both wanted a complicated wealth tax that would be hard to enforce and vulnerable to legal challenges. Biden pushed for higher taxes, too, but backed the more conventional idea of pushing tax rates for high earners and business back to levels they were at before Republicans cut them.
At one event in 2019, Biden contrasted himself with Sanders and Warren by saying he didn’t want to “demonize” wealthy people.
On student debt forgiveness. Sanders, once again, set the outer bound by calling for the cancellation of all student debt. Warren’s number was $50,000 in debt cancellation. Biden went lower still, eventually saying he’d forgive up to $10,000 of student debt.
On the environment, Sanders and Warren both backed the Green New Deal, which would have been a massive government takeover of much of the energy and transportation sectors. Biden said he supported the “framework” of the GND, but his own plan was a more incremental effort to move away from fossil fuels.
Does Biden seem like Mr. Moderation today?
Hardly. Biden canceled construction of an oil pipeline on his first day in office and recently “paused” permitting for new natural gas export terminals. Those aren’t radical moves, but many voters correctly note that energy prices are considerably higher than they were under Trump, and conclude that Biden’s liberal energy policies are raising their costs. With Sanders and Warren out of the limelight, there’s no true radical calling for a takeover of the energy industry to make Biden seem tame by comparison.
Biden’s immigration policies have failed to stem a massive inflow of migrants, which has stoked growing alarm about a general breakdown of order. Biden now seems to realize he needs to do something, and he recently indicated he’d support some of the tough crackdowns Republicans want to impose. But legislation giving the president those authorities appears to be dead — and this a mushrooming election liability Biden may not be able to do anything about.
Some analysts expect Biden to tack toward the center in his general election messaging and his proposals for a second term. That would be a standard election year ploy. But Biden has also alienated liberals who want more aggressive climate action and more social welfare funding. He’s also got a fresh problem with young voters who feel he’s too chummy with Israel and aligned against the Palestinian cause. Those voters won’t go for Trump, but Biden needs them to turn out in large numbers in November instead of sitting out the election as a form of protest.
Bernie Sanders was never going to win the presidency, but as Biden’s foil he helped a Democrat win it in 2020. Biden’s on his own now, and trying to appease everybody from the far left to the dead center may leave him pleasing nobody.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.
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