Why 18% “uncommitted” vote in Kentucky’s primary is more about Biden than Gaza

In our Reality Check stories, Herald-Leader journalists dig deeper into questions over facts, consequences and accountability. Read more. Story idea? hlcityregion@herald-leader.com.

The national movement to vote “uncommitted” in the Democratic presidential primary to signal dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s policy in the Middle East has been a well-covered phenomenon across the country throughout primary season.

The Hill reported that an 18% finish for “uncommitted” across Kentucky compared to Biden’s 71% dealt “the latest blow to President Biden amid criticism from his own party over the handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.”

Other outlets have lumped the result together with “protest against Biden’s support for Israel as it continues to decimate Gaza.”

The “uncommitted” vote even picked up eight delegates compared to Biden’s 43 in Tuesday’s primary.

But political observers in Kentucky say you should think twice before attributing the result to protest against the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

Sign up for our Bluegrass Politics Newsletter

A must-read newsletter for political junkies across the Bluegrass State with reporting and analysis from the Lexington Herald-Leader. Never miss a story! Sign up for our Bluegrass Politics newsletter to connect with our reporting team and get behind-the-scenes insights, plus previews of the biggest stories.

Biden’s strongest performance against “uncommitted” occurred in two Kentucky counties where protest movement was among the largest and loudest: Fayette and Jefferson. In the state’s two most populous counties, he garnered 82% of the vote to 11% for “uncommitted.” There’s also been significant protest in Northern Kentucky, where Biden fared well relative to his statewide result.

Meanwhile, “uncommitted” performed best in Eastern Kentucky as well as pockets of Western Kentucky.

To put things in perspective, the last time an incumbent Democratic president was on the ballot could prove a helpful comparison.

Barack Obama only garnered about 58% of the Kentucky Democratic primary vote in 2012. “Uncommitted” received more than 42% – it won a majority of Kentucky counties, faring best in rural pockets of Eastern, Western and Central Kentucky where many voters were registered Democrats but already voting Republican for president.

Generally speaking in 2024, “uncommitted” fared best in less diverse, more conservative counties.

Greg Stumbo, a former Democratic attorney general who also served as Kentucky House speaker for several years, is from Floyd County, one of six where “uncommitted” beat Biden, 40% to 39%.

Stumbo doubted that the ongoing war in Gaza — Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attack has resulted in around 35,000 dead, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, and displaced around 1.7 million — has much to do with that result.

Israel-Palestine is “a non-issue” in Floyd County, Stumbo said, which has no major Israeli, Jewish, Palestinian or Muslim populations. According to U.S. Census figures, Floyd County is 98% white.

“Growing up, I never heard anything bad about either of those people,” he said. “It’s a non-issue. I don’t think the vote has anything to do with Palestine.”

Michael Frazier, a Republican consultant from Powell County where “uncommitted” got 31 percent of the vote, echoed Stumbo.

“International and foreign affairs, unless we’re sending actual troops over somewhere, really doesn’t move the needle” in Powell County, he said. “The number one issues are money in the pocket and food on the table.”

Meanwhile, Kentucky’s “uncommitted” campaign used 2016 and 2020 — years when the Democratic nomination was actually contested and the incumbent was not on the ballot — as comparisons. In those years, “uncommitted” claimed about 5% and 11% of the vote, respectively.

“Kentucky’s ‘uncommitted’ campaign is a movement that defied expectations and is fighting for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, an end to unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel and a clear path to Palestinian statehood,” the group claimed in a press release.

University of Kentucky political science professor Stephen Voss said the evidence points to the result coming by way of conservative ancestral Democrats, same as those who grew frustrated with Obama’s messaging and policy as it related to the coal industry.

“It’s really unlikely that the central mass of Biden’s opposition vote came from progressives angry about his foreign policy,” he said. “He’s tending to do much better in the sorts of places that actually vote for Democrats. Meanwhile, he just got destroyed in Southeastern Kentucky.”

As for Trump, Voss said that Trump’s 85% — former candidates Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis as well as “uncommitted” all got more than 3% — isn’t great, either.

Nobody predicts Trump to lose the state given that he notched 25-plus point wins in 2016 and 2020’s general elections, but Voss argued it should cause some concern for his campaign generally.

Still, one can’t completely discount an element of protest over the United States’ support of Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza.

Anna Whites, a Democratic attorney in Frankfort who helps train candidates and is politically involved, said that she thinks younger voters who filled out “uncommitted” are motivated primarily by the war in Gaza alongside concerns over Biden’s age.

“I think it’s real frustration — given Israel, I think that issue is making a lot of voters unhappy. It seems to me to be a younger voter expression of frustration,” Whites said.

She also expressed some worry that generally low turnout, and apparent low excitement about voting affirmatively for the candidate at the top of the candidate, could hurt Democrats down the ballot.

“Democratic candidates are really going to have to work to gain interest and turnout,” she said. “Simply saying ‘there is an election,’ doesn’t work.

“We’re going to have to be more exciting to do better.”