Where Seahawks stand in NFC playoff race entering Christmas weekend: Down, but not out
For a team that has lost four of its last five games, its playoff picture could be a lot uglier than it is.
The Seahawks are a half-game out of the NFC’s seventh and final postseason berth through Sunday’s games in week 15 of the regular season.
Seattle (7-7) and Detroit are tied in the standings, but the Seahawks are in eighth place in the NFC because they beat the Lions in early October behind a sterling day from quarterback Geno Smith. Head-to-head results is the first playoff tiebreaker between two teams.
Seattle lost Thursday at home to San Francisco (10-4), the West division champion and current third seed in the conference. The Seahawks watched Sunday night as the New York Giants (8-5-1) beat Washington (7-6-1). The Giants have the sixth seed and the Commanders the seventh.
Seattle owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Giants, by beating them in late October. Seattle and Washington don’t play this regular season. The Seahawks would hold the next tiebreaker with Washington, better record in common games (against Detroit, Atlanta and the Giants). That’s pending Washington playing Christmas Eve at San Francisco.
It’s unlikely the Seahawks’ tiebreakers with the Giants or Commanders are going to matter for a playoff spot. That’s because of the tie New York and Washington each have, against each other two weeks ago. Unless Seattle ties one of its final three games, it will not finish with the same record as New York and Washington, so tiebreakers won’t apply to playoff seeding.
The Seahawks have to do their own work. That is, of course, win.
They play Saturday at 10 a.m. (channel 13) at Kansas City (11-3), which clinched its seventh consecutive AFC West title on Sunday. The Chiefs are still trying to overtake Buffalo (11-3) for the AFC’s top playoff seed and only first-round bye. So it’s not as if Patrick Mahomes is going to be resting and not playing against Seattle Christmas Eve.
The forecast for Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium: partly sunny, no precipitation, 17 degrees with a 12-mph wind that will make it feel like 4 degrees. That’s warmer than Friday’s forecast for Kansas City: High of 2 degrees, with wind chills around -25.
Las Vegas bookmakers Sunday set the Seahawks as 9 1/2-point underdogs at the Chiefs.
The Seahawks then host the New York Jets (7-7) on New Year’s Day and the Los Angeles Rams (4-9) Jan. 8. It appears it will take at least two wins in the last three games for Seattle to have a realistic playoff hope.
Washington plays Saturday at San Francisco, then home versus Cleveland (6-8) and Dallas (10-4).
Odds makers will put the Commanders as underdogs against the 49ers and Cowboys and favorites over the Browns. If they are correct, Washington would finish 8-8-1. In that scenario a 9-8 Seattle team would earn the NFC’s seventh seed over the Commanders— as long as streaking Detroit doesn’t finish the season with three straight wins and thus a better record than the Seahawks at 10-7.
If Detroit finishes 10-7 it could pass the Giants for the sixth playoff seed.
The Lions, winners of sixth of their last seven, finish at Carolina (5-9), versus Chicago (3-11) and at Green Bay (5-8).
The Giants play at Minnesota (11-3), versus Indianapolis (4-9-1) and at Philadelphia (13-1). They appear to need one win to get into the playoffs.
The point: Despite its losses and troubling signs, Seattle is down but not out of the playoff race.
“We have an opportunity to be playing at the end of the year,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said this past weekend, after his team’s 21-13 loss to the 49ers. “But it means nothing unless we get after this game, and we need to nail this one and nail some games here to have a chance.”
