Where would oddsmakers have seeded UK in NCAA tourney? Here’s what the gambling odds say.
The Kentucky Wildcats are a 3 seed for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
John Calipari’s Cats learned their path in this year’s edition of March Madness during Sunday night’s Selection Show: UK will begin tournament play Thursday against No. 14 seed Oakland University (23-11) in Pittsburgh.
From there, a potential matchup with either 6 seed Texas Tech or 11 seed North Carolina State awaits in the round of 32. The winner of that matchup will advance to the Sweet 16. These games are all part of the South Region (Dallas).
How did Kentucky’s ranking as a 3 seed match up with what oddsmakers think of the Wildcats in March Madness?
In the minutes following the reveal of the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket, the Herald-Leader took a snapshot of what the national championship odds were for each of the 68 teams in the field via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here’s a comparison of how both the oddsmakers and the NCAA Tournament selection committee viewed the 68 teams in March Madness.
What do the oddsmakers think of Kentucky basketball getting a 3 seed?
The DraftKings odds and Kentucky’s overall seeding in the 2024 NCAA Tournament are in lockstep.
The selection committee ranked UK as the No. 11 overall seed for the tournament, which means Kentucky was the third-best of the four 3 seeds.
DraftKings odds following the bracket reveal had Kentucky at +2200 to win March Madness, which equated to the ninth-best odds of any team in the field. This corresponds with a 3-seed ranking, even if some betting bias toward Kentucky slightly inflated the Cats’ standing in this regard.
At +2200 odds, a $10 bet on Kentucky to win the NCAA Tournament would produce $220 in profit, should it come to fruition.
Oakland, UK’s round-of-64 opponent, was ranked as the No. 55 overall seed by the selection committee and was listed on DraftKings at +50,000 odds to win the NCAA Tournament.
There was also a clear grouping of favorites to win the NCAA Tournament in the eyes of oddsmakers: UConn was the pre-tournament betting favorite at +425 odds to defend its national championship, with Houston offered at +500 and Purdue at +600.
This corresponded with those teams’ placement at the top of the overall seed list as set by the selection committee.
Biggest differences between NCAA Selection Committee and oddsmakers
Three teams had standout differences between their overall seed ranking by the selection committee and how oddsmakers viewed their chances of going home with a national championship.
Michigan State (19-14) has been a polarizing team all season long for college basketball fans. The Spartans started the 2023-24 season with a top-five ranking in the AP poll, but quickly fell from those lofty expectations after a season-opening loss to James Madison. Head coach Tom Izzo’s team then rallied for a 10-10 record in Big Ten Conference play and reached the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament.
The selection committee gave Michigan State a 9 seed and ranked the Spartans as the No. 33 overall seed in the field. But, per DraftKings, Michigan State was tied for the 17th-best odds to win the NCAA Tournament at +10,000, along with Clemson and Texas Tech.
Dayton (24-7 overall) impressed in both nonconference play and in advanced metrics this season, but lost in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament, the Flyers’ first game in that event.
Still, an at-large berth went to head coach Anthony Grant’s team: Dayton is a 7 seed and the selection committee ranked the Flyers as the No. 28 overall seed in the field. The oddsmakers significantly disagreed with this ranking.
DraftKings listed Dayton at +16,000 odds to win the national championship, which were the 21st-best odds to win March Madness.
No team differed more between the selection committee’s evaluation of it and that of the oddsmakers than the New Mexico Lobos.
Head coach Richard Pitino’s team was referred to as a “bid thief” during the Selection Show broadcast by selection committee chair Charles McClelland (the commissioner of the Southwestern Athletic Conference), which means the Lobos (26-9 overall) wouldn’t have been in the field had they not won the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday night.
New Mexico was given an 11 seed for the NCAA Tournament and the selection committee ranked them as the No. 42 overall seed for the event. But oddsmakers liked the Lobos a whole lot more: New Mexico had the 18th-best odds to win March Madness at +12,000.
The Lobos are part of a large group of teams grouped together at +12,000 odds: New Mexico was joined by Mississippi State, South Carolina, TCU, Texas and Washington State in this regard.
How likely is a national championship for Morehead State, WKU?
The selection committee gave Morehead State — champions of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament and making its ninth-ever trip to the NCAA Tournament — a 14 seed and ranked the Eagles as the No. 57 overall team in the field.
DraftKings had Morehead State (26-8 overall) listed with the 29th-best odds to win March Madness at +80,000. This represented the second-to-last tier of odds to win the national title. Long Beach State was also listed at a massive +80,000.
The selection committee gave Western Kentucky — champions of the Conference USA Tournament and making its 24th-ever trip to the NCAA Tournament — a 15 seed and ranked the Hilltoppers as the No. 60 overall team in the field.
DraftKings had Western Kentucky (22-11 overall) listed with the 27th-best odds to win March Madness at +50,000. This was the tier of odds to win the national title directly above the one that included Morehead State and Long Beach State.
Also offered at +50,000 to win the national championship, in addition to WKU, were Samford, South Dakota State, Duquesne, Oakland, Charleston, and Yale.
Complete 2024 NCAA Tournament seed list
Here is the complete seed list for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, as determined by the selection committee. All teams in the field are ranked from 1-68.
1. Connecticut (31-3)
2. Houston (30-4)
3. Purdue (29-4)
4. North Carolina (27-7)
5. Tennessee (24-8)
6. Arizona (25-8)
7. Marquette (25-9)
8. Iowa State (27-7)
9. Baylor (23-10)
10. Creighton (23-9)
11. Kentucky (23-9)
12. Illinois (26-8)
13. Duke (24-8)
14. Kansas (22-10)
15. Auburn (27-7)
16. Alabama (21-11)
17. BYU (23-10)
18. San Diego State (24-10)
19. Wisconsin (22-13)
20. Saint Mary’s (26-7)
21. Gonzaga (25-7)
22. Clemson (21-11)
23. Texas Tech (23-10)
24. South Carolina (26-7)
25. Florida (24-11)
26. Washington State (24-9)
27. Texas (20-12)
28. Dayton (24-7)
29. Nebraska (23-10)
30. Utah State (27-6)
31. Florida Atlantic (25-8)
32. Mississippi State (21-13)
33. Michigan State (19-14)
34. Texas A&M (20-14)
35. TCU (21-12)
36. Northwestern (21-11)
37. Nevada (26-7)
38. Boise State (22-10)
39. Colorado (24-10)
40. Drake (28-6)
41. Virginia (23-11)
42. New Mexico (26-9)
43. Oregon (23-11)
44. Colorado State (24-10)
45. N.C. State (22-14)
46. Duquesne (24-11)
47. Grand Canyon (29-4)
48. James Madison (31-3)
49. McNeese State (30-3)
50. UAB (23-11)
51. Vermont (28-6)
52. Yale (22-9)
53. Samford (29-5)
54. Charleston (27-7)
55. Oakland (23-11)
56. Akron (24-10)
57. Morehead State (26-8)
58. Colgate (25-9)
59. Long Beach State (21-14)
60. Western Kentucky (22-11)
61. South Dakota State (22-12)
62. Saint Peter’s (19-13)
63. Longwood (21-13)
64. Stetson (22-12)
65. Montana State (17-17)
66. Grambling State (20-14)
67. Howard (18-16)
68. Wagner (16-15)
UK basketball’s 2024 NCAA Tournament path is set. Here’s who, where the Cats will play.
How has Kentucky fared as a No. 3 seed in past NCAA tournaments? It’s happened twice.
Following the Kentucky basketball team to Pittsburgh? How to get NCAA Tournament tickets.
Morehead State’s remarkable 4-year run of success leads up to NCAA matchup vs. Illinois
Western Kentucky, back in NCAA Tournament for first time since 2013, will face Marquette
Here is the schedule and a printable bracket for the 2024 men’s NCAA basketball tournament
