Where does TCU baseball stand in the final stretch of the season?

TCU baseball seemed primed to have a historic season after being ranked a top-10 in most preseason projections after last year’s run to the College World Series.

The Horned Frogs lived up their lofty preseason ranking at the start of the year jumping out to a 13-0 record sparked by a high-powered offense that kept TCU alive in games no matter how large the deficit was.

However, the outlook for TCU’s season has changed greatly since the Horned Frogs (24-15, 8-13) defeated Abilene Christian 4-0 on March 5. Since that victory TCU has gone just 11-15 and the Horned Frogs are currently just 8-13 in the Big 12 with just 13 games remaining before the postseason.

How has this run impacted TCU’s chances of making another NCAA Baseball Tournament? Based on projections things aren’t bleak for the Horned Frogs just yet, but the margin of error is decreasing with every defeat.

BaseballAmerica currently has the Horned Frogs as one of the First Four teams out of the field. College Sports Madness didn’t have TCU in the field while D1Baseball currently has TCU projected as a No. 3 seed in the Knoxville Region.

In short there’s work to do, but how confident should fans feel that TCU can turn things around? Taking a look at some of TCU’s issues, some of the problems are simple while others are a bit more puzzling.

The biggest reason TCU has gone under .500 over the last month and a half is because the Horned Frogs are a different team at Lupton Baseball Stadium compared to on the road. TCU is an impressive 17-4 at home after Tuesday’s night 5-2 win over Dallas Baptist.

In fact if you include games played in Arlington and Dallas, the Horned Frogs record jumps to 21-5 with TCU averaging seven runs per game on offense in games in the DFW Metroplex. Not including games at UT-Arlington and Dallas Baptist, on the road the Horned Frogs are just 3-10 and while it’s always expected for teams to have better home records but that type of split is staggering.

The offensive numbers drop from seven runs to just over three. Again, there’s an expectation that there will be some offensive regression once you hit conference play as you’re going up against more talented pitchers and playing in more hostile environments, but it’s such a significant dip it almost feels like there’s two versions of the same team.

Taking an even deeper look at some of TCU’s issues and another key factor in the late season swoon is the inconsistency at the plate. The Horned Frogs are batting just .263, ranking them No. 12 in the conference only ahead of BYU. TCU batted .298 last year and had multiple players as league leaders in categories like doubles, home runs, slugging percentage and more.

Now, the Horned Frogs are last in the league in home runs, total bases, runs batted in and slugging percentage. To see TCU struggle so much on offense is a surprise given the talent of returners like Anthony Silva and Kurtis Byrne, who leads the team with five home runs and 30 RBIs.

The offensive struggles have put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that’s been one of the best in the league. Led by Peyton Tolle, TCU’s bullpen has the third lowest ERA in the Big 12 and Tolle leads the league in strikeouts while being second in opposing batting average and innings pitched.

While TCU has their ace, the rest of the rotation has been up and down. Six other pitches have started at least three games this season and four of them have an ERA over 5.7 which is far from ideal.

Consistency outside of Tolle on the mound and with the lineup at the plate will be the keys for TCU making another late season surge to the postseason. With 10 of the final 13 games at Lupton starting with Friday’s matchup against Kansas State at 6:30 p.m., maybe the home crowd will be enough to provide the spark TCU needs.