Where Clemson stands ahead of first College Football Playoff ranking of 2022
As of this week, Clemson remains the only college football program in the country with three wins against teams ranked in the most recent AP Top 25 poll.
Will those victories, among other positives for the undefeated Tigers, sway voters who might have lingering questions surrounding Clemson’s status as a true 2022 national championship contender?
We’ll find out Tuesday night when the College Football Playoff Selection Committee releases the first of five weekly rankings leading into its Dec. 4 Selection Day.
The rankings will be revealed live at 7 p.m. on ESPN.
Nobody’s making or missing the CFP this week. But for Clemson (8-0, 6-0 ACC), it’s the first true barometer of how the selection committee — tasked since 2014 with determining which four teams will contend for the national championship — views the Tigers’ résumé against others.
No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Tennessee and No. 2 Ohio State, the top three teams in this week’s AP poll after Tennessee and Ohio State registered the first tie for the second spot since 2004, all remain undefeated and should be locks for the CFP’s top three spots in some order.
That leaves AP No. 5 Clemson jockeying for position with No. 4 Michigan, No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 TCU for the initial No. 4 spot in the CFP rankings, a back-and-forth that could extend for weeks.
It’s familiar territory for the Tigers, a team that’s appeared in 45 of the 48 all-time CFP rankings since 2014 (fourth most nationally) and will make it 46 of 49 on Tuesday.
But it’s also a reminder of Clemson’s one-year turnaround. The Tigers were 5-3 at this point last season and were deservedly excluded from the selection committee’s first three rankings of 2021, marking the only three times they’ve been excluded from the Top 25 in the CFP era.
Clemson used a late-season winning streak in 2021 to move from No. 23 to No. 20 to No. 19 across the CFP’s final three rankings, still a far cry from years past.
Now, with quarterback DJ Uiagalelei leading a much-improved offense, a loaded defense making plays and first-year coordinators for both units holding steady, coach Dabo Swinney’s program is right back in the national conversation.
Working in Clemson’s favor are three ranked wins against No. 20 Wake Forest, No. 21 N.C. State and No. 22 Syracuse; an average margin of victory of 16.4 points against FBS opponents; and an undefeated record that has once again put the Tigers on the fast track for a spot in the ACC title game.
Working against Clemson are the significant drops of Wake Forest, N.C. State and Syracuse in recent AP polls; a strength of schedule that ranks well ahead of Michigan but well below Alabama and TCU; and a lack of sheer dominance in wins.
Uiagalelei’s benching against Syracuse and defensive shortcomings against Wake Forest and Florida State are the sort of eye-test moments that can alter a team’s perception — especially this early, when the selection committee has six undefeated teams to parse through.
A sampling of media predictions for Tuesday’s initial rankings reveals a clear grouping for the playoff’s No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds — Georgia, Tennessee and Ohio State in some order — and minimal buzz for Clemson as a No. 4 seed.
Yahoo has Clemson as its No. 4 seed, but predictions from NCAA.com, USA Today and Sports Illustrated all have Clemson outside of the CFP top four. In a straw poll of 27 reporters from The Athletic, the Tigers had just one third-place vote and three fourth-place votes.
Clemson was mostly a wire-to-wire top four CFP team en route to its six straight appearances from 2015 to 2020, which amounted to four national championship game appearances and national title wins in 2016 and 2018.
The Tigers, which visit Notre Dame this week, have only ranked fifth in the CFP rankings once (in the first ranking of the 2019 season) and have never ranked sixth or seventh.
Even if Clemson lands outside the top four spots on Tuesday night as projected, its path to a seventh College Football Playoff in nine seasons remains clear: win out. In eight years, no undefeated Power Five conference champion has ever missed the playoff.
Along those lines, FiveThirtyEight gives Clemson the third-best chance in the country to make the CFP (55%) behind Ohio State and Georgia, and ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Clemson the fourth-best chances at 51.1% behind Ohio State, Georgia and Tennessee.
The Tigers play a road non-conference game against the Fighting Irish on Saturday night before ending the regular season with a three-game homestand against Louisville (Nov. 12), Miami (Nov. 19) and in-state rival South Carolina (Nov. 26) at Memorial Stadium.
Clemson has a 99.8% chance to win the ACC Atlantic Division title, per ESPN’s FPI, and can clinch its spot in the ACC championship game with a win against Louisville next week.
The Tigers’ most likely opponent in that game remains No. 17 North Carolina, which has a 98.3% chance of winning the ACC Coastal Division title.
How to watch College Football Playoff rankings show today
What: First College Football Playoff Selection Committee ranking of 2022
When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
Channel: ESPN
Stream: via WatchESPN or the ESPN app
