What's happening with the birthrate in a post-Roe Tennessee? These data points offer insight

Micaela A Watts, Memphis Commercial Appeal

Though official state data is lagging behind, some of the first studies analyzing the impact of abortion bans are giving residents an idea of how the overturning of Roe v Wade, the nearly 50-year-old precedent that established the right to an abortion, is playing out in states with heavily restricted abortion access or outright bans, like Tennessee.

Tennessee has one of the strictest bans on the books in the U.S. — the state's total abortion ban only allows for abortions in very rare medical emergency events. Since Tennessee's total ban went into effect in August 2022, official tallies of live births — including pregnancies that are a result of sexual assault — have not yet been fully reported.

Two data points that illustrate Tennessee's changing rate of live births have emerged as research institutions are beginning to tally data.

Tennessee live births estimated to have risen by roughly a quarter

  • In a paper published by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, researchers estimated live births in Tennessee have increased by 24.6% or 2,573 births annually.

  • The average increase people have to travel to access abortion care since the ban went into effect is 130.2 miles.

  • Previous estimates suggest one in every five pregnancies in the U.S. ended with an abortion in 2020.

  • Previously, 75% of patients who sought abortions before the bans in the U.S. were classified as low-income, 59% already had one or more offspring, and 55% had reported a recent disruptive life event like the loss of employment.

In Tennessee pregnancies as a result of rape are rising

  • Out of 14 states with abortion bans in place, Tennessee is one of nine states that does not have an abortion exemption for rape-related pregnancies.

  • Sixteen months out from the implementation of a total abortion ban, estimates extrapolated from the U.S. Department of Justice and others show an estimated between 32,341 and 53,902 vaginal sexual assaults occurred in Tennessee since the abortion ban went into effect. This estimate includes assaults not reported to law enforcement. For comparison, the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation shows 2,299 reported assaults in 2021, which is likely a significant undercount.

  • Of those completed assaults, it is estimated that 4,993 resulted in a pregnancy in 16 months out from the state's abortion ban implementation.

Micaela Watts is a reporter for The Commercial Appeal covering a range of issues. She can be reached at micaela.watts@commercialappeal.com.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, how has Tennessee's birthrate changed?

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