West Pacific could soon produce 1st typhoon of the year

This satellite loop shows Tropical Storm Surigae gaining strength across the Philippine Sea Wednesday afternoon, local time. (Photo/CIMSS/SSEC)

A newly formed tropical system has brought the western Pacific back to life, and AccuWeather meteorologists say as the storm strengthens, it could develop into a powerful typhoon -- the basin's first since last year.

Severe Tropical Storm Surigae formed across the Philippine Sea Wednesday while churning midway between Guam and the Philippines. Current forecasts indicated that it is possible that the storm could reach typhoon status as it approaches the Philippines in the coming days.

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The storm will be called Bising once it enters the Philippines area of responsibility, which is an area that The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) monitors weather systems. Once a tropical storm or typhoon enters this area, it is given a name by PAGASA separate from the international name that may have already been given.

"Conditions will be favorable for further strengthening," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tony Zartman.

The combination of light wind shear and warm ocean waters will aid in the strengthening of the system.

"There is still uncertainly as to the exact path later this week and over the upcoming weekend," said Zartman. "However, it could at least threaten or brush the eastern Philippines later this weekend or early next week."

The amounts of impacts to the Philippines will depend on how quickly the budding typhoon makes a turn to the north over the weekend.

If Surigae turns to the north sooner, much of the storm can miss the Philippines and remain across the open waters of the Philippine Sea.

Infrared satellite shows the developing storm over the Pacific Wednesday, April 14, 2021. (Image/CIRA RAAMB)

However, should Surigae remain on a westward track slightly longer, strong winds and the heaviest rain could lash the eastern Philippines.

If Surigae tracks far enough west it could spread rain and gusty winds from eastern Mindanao to eastern Visayas and perhaps eastern Luzon from late Saturday into early next week, local time, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

There could be locally heavy rain that may bring the threat for flash flooding. Gusty winds within these rain bands could cause minor damage to some structures.

Regardless of the exact track, the strong winds from the storm are likely to produce dangerous seas across the eastern Philippines beginning late this week and continuing into early next week. Boaters should use caution if venturing into offshore waters.

After turning to the north of the Philippines, Surigae is likely to run into less favorable conditions for tropical cyclones, which should cause it to lose wind intensity later next week. However, it will still have to be watched closely as possible impacts to Japan cannot yet be ruled out.

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