This week in Bidenomics: It’s democracy, stupid

Most presidents running for reelection win or lose based on the state of the economy. That’s why Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign dictum boiled it down: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Campaigning on the economy hasn’t worked so well for President Biden. Most measures of economic activity — employment, growth, profits — are healthy. The jobs report for December underscored this, with employers adding 216,000 new jobs, the 36th month of gains in a row. The one thing that isn’t healthy, inflation, has been dramatically improving. In dozens of speeches, Biden touts the economy’s strong points while acknowledging there’s more work to do on inflation.

Voters aren’t buying it. Americans rate Biden poorly on the economy, and broadly say former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican presidential nominee in 2024, would do a better job. That’s despite Biden’s success signing popular new laws boosting infrastructure, domestic production, and the green energy transition.

So Biden’s trying a new approach as the 2024 campaign season kicks off in earnest. Biden’s main campaign theme, at least for now, is that Biden will save American democracy, while Trump, his likely opponent, will trash it. Biden will use the third anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the US Capitol to tell voters in Pennsylvania that Trump will institutionalize the abuse of power if he wins in November, while only Biden can protect the rule of law and the norms of civil society.

It's an obvious tack for Biden to take, given that Biden won in 2020 largely because he was the anti-Trump. So it might work again in 2024. Yet running on “democracy” is also a tacit admission of weakness, as if Biden’s own record after three years in office isn’t enough of a selling point.

There’s another growing vulnerability for Biden: The migration mess at the southwest border, where illegal crossings in December reached the highest level on record. Unauthorized entry is no longer a border state problem that only Republicans care about. It has become a nationwide scourge affecting blue states and cities teeming with migrants who need food, housing, and jobs. Prominent Democratic leaders, echoing some Republicans, have been pleading with Biden to devise a solution.

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Biden has been oddly quiet on the whole issue, as if it will just blow over and the storm will subside. But the opposite seems more likely to happen, with a new surge of migrants from Africa joining those from Latin America and elsewhere trying to get into the United States. “This has been a disaster for the Biden administration,” Greg Valliere, chief strategist at AGF Investments, wrote in his daily newsletter on Jan. 5. “Most of the Democrats we talk with are angry that Biden had no apparent plan as immigration soared.”

Biden’s coyness on immigration may be a defensive ploy as Congress works up a complicated bill to address the border chaos in conjunction with new funding for Ukraine and Israel. Biden has been vocal in his call for the Ukraine and Israel money, but essentially silent on immigration. He may feel there’s no winning move in taking a tougher stance on immigration: It would alienate more liberal voters who favor amnesty and maybe even align Biden with Trump’s harsh keep-them-all-out approach.

So Biden may let Congressional Republicans play the bad cop, if they can craft a compromise bill he can live with. Biden could then say he had no choice but to accept some kind of immigration crackdown in exchange for wartime aid to Ukraine and Israel, citing his willingness to engage in bipartisan negotiations even when he doesn’t get everything he wants.

That may be a best-case scenario for Biden on immigration. A messier outcome would be no deal in Congress, new record levels of illegal immigration in 2024, and the growing impression that Biden is neglecting a problem that is metastasizing all across the country.

Back in 1992, the Clinton campaign fixated on the economy because no matter what else is going on, people still need to buy groceries, pay the rent, and support their families. That’s as true today as it was then. A candidate who would rather talk about something else is not addressing the things that dominate most voters’ thinking.

With 10 months until the election and the economy still in good shape, it’s possible the continued moderation of inflation will create an opening later this year for Biden to talk up the economy to voters more receptive to his message. He should certainly hope so. Democracy is important, but it’s also an abstraction to many people whose first concern is paying the bills. If Biden could convincingly tell voters he’ll make them better off and protect democracy, he’d have a much stronger case.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.

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