Southern US set for a soaking to end the week

After several dry and seasonably cool days at the start of the week, weather conditions across portions of the south-central and southeastern United States will deteriorate just in time to force families to possibly re-think their long holiday weekend plans.

Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Thanksgiving will look different for a majority of the United States this year. Those looking to hold an outdoor, socially distanced feast will likely be closely monitoring the weather forecast leading up to the holiday itself.

Unfortunately for some residents across the Southeast, Mother Nature may also have something to say about their extended weekend plans.

A storm system developing in the central Plains this week will act to bring periods of rain and even a few thunderstorms to the southern Plains and part of the Southeast states Wednesday morning. However, rain and storms will lose intensity through Wednesday night and into Thanksgiving itself.

"The storm system may still keep a few lingering showers for some across the Southeast on Thanksgiving, potentially hindering outdoor activities," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

The next system, and what may ultimately become a more widespread threat for wet weather, will develop quickly in the wake of Thursday's exiting system.

A cold front will dive into the southern Plains early Friday and cause soaking rain and thunderstorms to develop over central and eastern Texas and then expand eastward into Mississippi and Alabama by the time the sun sets.

"Some of the downpours that are forecast to reach coastal Texas and the Interstate 10 corridor in the South starting on Friday will be tropical in nature," according to AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski. Leftover moisture from Iota that struck Central America last week will be a factor in the rainfall.

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Rain can fall heavily at times not only on Friday but Saturday as well.

"Higher rainfall totals and a greater risk for localized flash flooding will be likely along I-10 and closer to the Gulf Coast, where warmer air and greater moisture can be sufficient for wetter atmospheric ingredients," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Sadvary said.

Given the availability of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, it is also not out of the question that this potent cold front can lead to an explosive clashing of cold air from the north and warm air from the south. Even in late autumn, it is not unlikely to have feisty thunderstorms develop when two such air masses collide.

Any strong thunderstorm that develops on Friday will have the potential to unleash locally damaging winds and hail.

"Folks who may be traveling after Thanksgiving or masking-up to venture out for socially distanced Black Friday deals should pay close attention to the forecast and potentially plan for travel delays," Sadvary added.

Friday's soaking weather may even have ramifications for a few post-holiday college football games, notably the matchup between the No.15 Iowa State Cyclones and the No. 20 Texas Longhorns.

This early afternoon game at Darrel K Royal -- Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, may have to contend with Mother Nature. Rain is likely to be ongoing across central and eastern Texas at kickoff. During the game, initiation of heavier thunderstorms will be possible just to the east of the Austin area, so players and limited spectators will need to remain on guard for rapidly changing conditions.

The threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue along the western and central Gulf coast and expand farther to the east on Saturday as the front that triggered Friday's event slows and becomes stationary. Wet weather is forecast to reach portions of Georgia on Saturday.

On Saturday, the threat for any heavier thunderstorms will likely be confined to the Gulf Coast, where the necessary atmospheric ingredients will remain in place. However, a big question hangs in the balance weather-wise for the Southern states as well as much of the eastern third of the nation for Sunday to Tuesday, depending on the track and strength of a storm forecast to take shape.

AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring this situation closely in the days to come.

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