Weather Permitting: What's in store for us during the 2024 hurricane season?
If NOAA expectations are correct, prepare for a hectic hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an 85% chance of a busier-than-normal tropical season for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico with as many as 25 named tropical systems this year.
A strong El Nino is winding down, and the inhibiting factors that go with it are fading, as well. Instead, neutral to La Nina conditions are expected: warm sea temperatures, reduced shear in tropical development areas and stronger systems developing over Africa.
In addition, an early pattern of high pressure over the Central Atlantic could help develop marginal systems.
More: The 2024 NOAA hurricane season forecast is unlike any other. See the record predictions.
In all, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center anticipates as many as 13 tropical systems will become hurricanes, with winds topping 75 mph. As many as seven could become major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher.
The warm waters and low shear expected could provide more than 200% of the normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy — a predictor of the number and strength of tropical systems.
The NOAA projections don't predict how many storms will interact with land. That said, La Nina conditions generally indicate more landfalling systems.
Fayetteville weather
Meanwhile, the Cape Fear region will see warming temperatures and some evening showers heading into the weekend. A warm, muggy system sits overhead, and a series of energy impulses will track across the Carolinas.
Showers will be scattered and tend to die down quickly in the evening. But until an expected cold front arrives early next week, the region can look for warm, unsettled weather with temperatures pushing 90 degrees or higher.
Got a weather question? Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com or NCWeatherhoundon X/Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: NOAA predicts busy Atlantic hurricane season for 2024
