Wealthy self-funding candidates could hold the key to GOP hopes of taking the Senate

National Republicans are relying on self-funding candidates to win back the Senate next year — and some of their wealthiest prospects are already spending big money to win primaries in key states.

The strategy, underscored in recently filed campaign finance reports covering the last three months, is particularly pronounced in Montana and Ohio, where three-term Democratic Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown are among the chamber’s most vulnerable incumbents. Republicans need to flip two seats to guarantee Senate control in 2025 regardless of the outcome of the presidential race, and Tester and Brown are two of the three Democrats up for re-election in states former President Donald Trump carried in 2016 and 2020. (The third is Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.)

Tim Sheehy, an aerospace executive recruited by the National Republican Senatorial Committee to take on Tester, loaned his campaign $500,000 in his first three months as a candidate and came out of the gate airing TV ads.

And two of the three GOP prospects in Ohio are digging even deeper. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team after striking it rich in the early days of cable television, has already loaned his campaign $7 million, including $3 million in late September. Former car dealer Bernie Moreno put in $3 million of his own last quarter. Including the loans, both campaigns took in more than $4.1 million over three months.

Even with the personal money, their overall numbers — including total money raised and cash on hand — lagged behind the Democratic incumbents, neither of whom dipped into their personal funds. Tester’s campaign entered October with $13 million, Brown’s with $11.2 million. Sheehy had $1.1 million, Dolan $6.7 million and Moreno $5 million.

But fundraising has been a challenge for down-ballot Republican candidates in recent cycles, with Trump commanding the spotlight and the small-dollar donor base. That makes candidates with their own money to burn a valuable asset. Democratic Senate candidates, meanwhile, have raised grassroots money at robust clips, even if they don’t always have victories to show for it.

“As they do every cycle, the Democrats are going to have virtually unlimited campaign funds, super PAC dollars and dark money at their disposal to smear our Republican candidates,” NRSC communications director Mike Berg told NBC News. “That is why [NRSC Chairman Steve] Daines put an emphasis on recruiting candidates who are either strong fundraisers or have the ability to make an investment in their campaign.”

Unlike in 2022, when the NRSC stayed out of primaries and watched as Trump issued endorsements that in many cases backfired, national Republicans are playing favorites in several 2024 races. Under Daines, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm has signaled a preference for Sheehy in Montana, Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Sam Brown in Nevada and former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Sheehy, who raised $2.8 million last quarter, including his loan, could face a challenge from Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018. Rosendale raised $334,000 in his House fund, which can be transitioned to a Senate campaign, but had more cash on hand — $1.7 million to Sheehy’s $1.1 million.

Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, emphasized how much of these personal funds could be spent in costly primaries.

“Senate Democratic candidates’ formidable fundraising reflects the strong support they’ve earned from voters and grassroots donors, who recognize the stakes of this election and the importance of stopping Republicans from implementing their toxic agenda,” Garcia said. “While Senate Republicans fight amongst themselves in vicious primaries, battle-tested Senate Democrats continue laying the groundwork for their campaign victories in 2024.”

One Republican fundraiser involved in Senate races noted that wealthy establishment-backed candidates wouldn't necessarily be able to overcome challengers who tap into Trump’s grassroots base, a decisive force in recent primaries. Even more than money, Trump's endorsement has tipped the scales in recent GOP primaries, too.

“I get the NRSC’s want for self-funders,” said the fundraiser, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, “but I just don’t think that they are necessarily going to make it through.”

Justice, a coal baron, and McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, are among the NRSC’s other self-funding hopes.

Justice, who until recently was West Virginia’s richest person, has yet to kick in his own money. He still outraised his GOP primary rival, Rep. Alex Mooney, in the recently ended third quarter, $612,000 to $313,000. But Mooney has backing from Club for Growth, a big-spending conservative group, and had slightly more cash on hand entering October.

Manchin, the state's Democratic incumbent who has yet to reveal his plans for 2024, outraised both and reported $11.3 million on hand.

At a news conference last week, Justice indicated that he prefers not to underwrite his campaign.

“From the standpoint of self-funding, I’m not going to do that,” Justice said, according to MetroNews, a West Virginia media outlet. “The reason I’m not going to do that is just plain and simple. I really believe that this job is tough for anybody to do, and I think if I’m willing to step up, we all need to step up.”

Justice's campaign manager did not respond to a request for comment.

In Pennsylvania, McCormick lost a Senate primary last year to Trump-backed Mehmet Oz, the celebrity TV doctor who went on to lose to Democrat John Fetterman, then Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor. But this time McCormick has a clearer primary field and can reserve personal funds for a general election against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who entered October with $7.3 million on hand.

McCormick, who officially filed his candidacy papers this month, is not required to disclose his campaign finances until early next year.

The other NRSC-favored candidates, Brown in Nevada and Rogers in Michigan, are not self-funding but come in with prior campaign experience. Both posted third-quarter numbers that encouraged GOP backers, though both trailed Democrats in their states.

Meanwhile, in Ohio, the NRSC has not backed a candidate. Daines has signaled that he would be comfortable with Dolan, Moreno or Secretary of State Frank LaRose as the nominee.

LaRose’s name recognition from winning two statewide campaigns made him the early front-runner in polling, but his first quarter as a Senate candidate produced numbers that have Republicans wondering how long he will last. Not as wealthy as his two primary rivals, LaRose cleared the $1 million mark only after loaning his campaign $250,000. He entered October with $868,000 on hand — a fraction of what Dolan and Moreno have banked for a race that will likely be expensive and loaded with TV ads.

“Based on the latest [Federal Election Commission] filings, it’s going to be hard for Frank LaRose to compete with Moreno and Dolan’s millions,” said one Republican strategist who is not aligned with any of the Ohio campaigns and was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

In a campaign memo Monday, LaRose strategist Brett Buerck sought to put the best possible spin on the numbers, which were filed just before the deadline.

“Despite Frank not being a self-funder and while his primary opponents will rely on their family fortunes to finance their latest Senate bids, our campaign will have more than enough resources to compete and win the primary,” Buerck wrote.

Buerck also painted the other candidates’ wealth as a weakness.

“Frank’s first quarterly report easily outpaces Matt Dolan, whose anemic fundraising can only be saved from family money despite running for the U.S. Senate for multiple years,” Buerck wrote while alluding to previous Senate bids by Dolan and Moreno. “Frank’s other primary opponent, who did not have the political courage and belief in his own campaign to make it to the primary in 2022, is also setting millions of his own money on fire to buy a Senate seat.”

The spin didn't quite match reality. Dolan, who launched his 2024 bid in January, has seen his total from individual contributions rise each quarter. And Moreno’s $3 million loan followed a second quarter — his first as a 2024 candidate — in which he raised $2.2 million without personal funds.

“The most successful types of self-funding candidates,” said Moreno strategist Andy Surabian, “also have appeal to rank-and-file GOP donors.”