My way too early Top 25 for 2024 has Ohio State at the top, but Texas right behind | Bohls
We’ve been down this road before.
Everyone else is picking Georgia, and I do mean everyone else.
Every outlet I came across has chosen the Bulldogs to win the football national championship in 2024. All of ’em. From our own USA Today to Sports Illustrated to The Athletic to Pro Football Focus. All of them have anointed Kirby Smart’s Dawgs to return to the throne they vacated last season. I think even Good Housekeeping picked Georgia.
Not that I’ve ever let that stop me.
Remember, I had Michigan as my No. 1 team last August. Only Rece Davis and me. And I and everyone else had the Wolverines there this month. Wire-to-wire winners.
In sticking with that contrarian approach, I’m again going all in with the Big Ten. Sorry, Jim Harbaugh. Not you, wherever you may land.
I’m taking the Team Down South.
Yep, I’ve got the Ohio State Buckeyes atop my Early But Not As Early As Some Top 25 football poll for 2024.
But my top five after Ohio State are Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama.
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Ohio State has stockpiled talent to keep things humming
Do not sleep on the Longhorns making a strong bid for their first national championship since 2005 because Texas — or Alabama West — is stockpiling talent, will have an explosive offense once more and has a head coach hungry to make his mark.
But the Buckeyes are on top.
This could be the year Ryan Day and new bossman Ross Bjork are standing at the final podium hand in hand lofting the crystal trophy and telling everybody I told you so.
(Nearly all those other polls I referenced were in such a rush to get their list out there, they raved about Arizona’s Jedd Fisch and wondered if J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum were coming back. They’re not. Those Top 25s were so premature, they look a little silly since Kalen DeBoer might not even have 11 to suit up for the Crimson Tide with the rush of 25 players to the transfer portal. But we digress.)
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The Buckeyes are breaking in a new quarterback, but we’ve seen the toughness and playmaking and football IQ of former Kansas State leader Will Howard and his 48 career touchdowns. He’s the real deal and will be an upgrade over Syracuse-bound Kyle McCord as he throws to returning receiver Emeka Egbuka.
In TreVeyon Henderson and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins — two backs who totaled 28 touchdowns and 2,084 yards — Ohio State might have the best running back tandem in college football (unless Texas does).
In all, Day welcomes back 15 starters, not counting four incoming transfers. The i-dotters are mad as hell after losing three straight to Michigan and seeing the Wolverines win the national title in convincing style over Washington.
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Who knows? Day might even be coaching for his job next fall. Nothing like added incentive. Day is a top five college football coach with a 56-8 record. He deserves a statue and not to be stoned by an angry mob. He almost knocked off Georgia in that riveting 2022 CFP semifinal. If Ohio State were to fire him, he’d have 50 job offers in 20 minutes. He’s that good.
Bill O’Brien has come aboard as the offensive coordinator to take over play-calling duties. While he might not be everyone's favorite coach, he was respected enough to work for Bill Belichick and Nick Saban.
The stars are aligning for Ohio State
You like defense? The Buckeyes might be the equivalent of Michigan’s 2023 defense next fall. They might have the best pass-rushing duo in the country in J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, a pair who combined for 11½ sacks last season.
In this world of downfield passing, Day has one of the nation’s best defensive backfields. Returning cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock join Jermaine Mathews Jr. and Davison Igbinosun from last year’s top pass defense, one that allowed only one completion longer than 40 yards.
And the big, bad Wolverines have to go to Columbus. Ohio State will borrow a page from Michigan, which played nobodies in nonconference last fall, and play among its seven home dates Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. Easy path there. Now, the Buckeyes do have to go to Oregon (my No. 7 team) as well as Penn State (No. 19), but their schedule is hardly taxing. The Ducks skip USC and Penn State. The Nittany Lions have seven home games, have the Buckeyes at home and don’t have to play Oregon or Michigan.
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Don’t go off half-cocked, SEC fans.
I have as many as nine SEC teams in my Top 25, including six of my top seven. Among them are Ole Miss and Ohio State conqueror Missouri. So our new league is well-represented.
I've even got stock in Texas A&M (No. 21), figuring new coach Mike Elko’s defense and rising quarterback star Conner Weigman will overcome a tough schedule that includes Texas, Notre Dame, Missouri and LSU but skips Alabama and Georgia.
I know Georgia will have very little drop-off and might well have run the table in this past College Football Playoff, were it not for Saban’s parting shot on the way out the door. The Dawgs will be damn good, even without tight end extraordinaire Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, because Carson Beck returns along with a No. 1 recruiting class, a track record of 46 wins in 48 tries and transfer running back Trevor Etienne. Beck will duel Texas’ Quinn Ewers in a matchup for QB1 in the 2025 NFL draft right here at DKR in October.
Texas will be right there to start the season
Speaking of the Longhorns, I was fully on board with them a year ago, picking them to go 11-1 in the regular season, win the Big 12 and lose in the Sugar Bowl. All of that actually happened, save my prediction that they’d fall to Georgia in New Orleans.
So listen up.
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There were initial reservations about Texas being able to duplicate much of its 2023 success with the wipeout of the wide receiver position and departures of Outland Trophy winner T’Vondre Sweat and fire-breathing Byron Murphy II. But I’m so over that.
The run defense might not be nearly as stout, but the pass defense will be much improved.
Steve Sarkisian is restocking his shelves faster than H-E-B and grabbing elite transfers from all parts of the country, from Oregon State (wide receiver Silas Bolden) to UTSA and Houston (edge rusher Trey Moore and receiver Matt Golden), to Alabama and Clemson (wideout Isaiah Bond, tight end Amari Niblack, linebacker Kendrick Blackshire and safety Andrew Mukuba), to name a few.
We’ll learn pretty quickly whether Texas deserves a No. 3 ranking with a huge test at Ann Arbor in Week 2.
A seasoned quarterback, a veteran offensive line virtually intact, two gifted running backs, strong holdovers at defensive end, a super talented linebacker and an outstanding kicker all point to a strong possibility of another 11-1 season for the Longhorns at this juncture.
The rest of my early top 10
The rest of my top 10 veers away from the usual suspects.
I’ve got Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels in the No 4 spot even though he lost Judkins to the Buckeyes. Picking up stars like Aggies defensive lineman Walter Nolen has been huge.
Yes, I have Alabama in the No. 5 place, but DeBoer might need a therapist by spring training at this rate with 25 players in the portal, most recently five-star safety Caleb Downs and left tackle Kadyn Proctor. Could be a lot more fourth-and-31 plays for Jalen Milroe.
Missouri comes in at No. 6 after its well-balanced football team embarrassed Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Eli Drinkwitz is building a tough-minded program for the long haul.
No. 7 Oregon ain’t going nowhere, outside of the Big Ten, that is. Until some bigger blueblood pries Dan Lanning out of the Northwest, the Ducks are back for good with transfers such as quarterback Dillon Gabriel (OU) and safety Kobe Savage (Kansas State).
Nearly everyone has jumped off the Clemson bandwagon, but do so at your own peril. Dabo Swinney might hate the portal worse than DeBoer, but he righted the ship after a 4-4 start, and the No. 8 Tigers remain the class of the ACC.
Some might doubt Oklahoma’s Brent Venables, but I’m not one of them. The No. 9 Sooners have enough dynamic players on both sides of the ball, but they also have a killer schedule with games against Alabama and Tennessee and road dates at LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri.
Finally at No. 10, we find Michigan, which recruits well enough to belong in the upper echelon every year. But its coach is still up in the air, an NCAA investigation looms, and the champions suffered losses in the line and offensive backfield and with big playmakers on defense.
Lots of challengers, challenges for Ohio State
I would have put Arizona much higher than No. 11 had Fisch stayed to tutor quarterback sensation Noah Fifita, who should be a legit Heisman contender.
No. 12 Oklahoma State could surprise in a big way with its offensive nucleus and without OU on the schedule.
Also in the teens are Notre Dame, which is hunting for some quarterback consistency in Riley Leonard; Iowa State and its 18 returning starters and tough mindset; Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks, who hope to have a healthy Jalon Daniels back; defensively rebuilt LSU with a fresh quarterback; and the always gritty Kansas State Wildcats and new quarterback prodigy Avery Johnson.
If you want some new blood, near the end of my Top 25, you’ll find resurgent Memphis, winners at Liberty, traditional Group of Five power Boise State and surging Jacksonville State.
But until we reconvene in August, it’s the Buckeyes’ world.
My early Top 25 for 2024
1. Ohio State: Ryan Day has immense pressure but also a top defense and a new OC.
2. Georgia: Carson Beck might be the top QB in the nation, and Brock Bowers is gone, but the Dawgs are flush with talent and angry about 2023.
3. Texas: As Sark restocks through the portal, the Horns are Alabama West.
4. Ole Miss: Rebels lose RB Judkins but return their QB, WR and TE and add nine defensive transfers.
5. Alabama: Anyone still there? New coach Kalen DeBoer faces incredible pressure and massive departures.
6. Missouri: The Brady Cook-Luther Burden III connection is back, but the defense has some holes.
7. Oregon: OU's Dillon Gabriel is ready to take the reins, but all-American RB Cody Schrader is gone.
8. Clemson: No one should sleep on QB Cade Klubnik, a strong OL and the Tigers' five-game winning streak.
9. Oklahoma: Can blue chip QB Jackson Arnold mature quickly to help LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman?
10. Michigan: Who's the coach, who's the QB, and can Donovan Edwards repeat his title game heroics? Lots of questions.
11. Arizona: Jeff Fisch has gone to Washington, but freshman QB Noah Fifita could be great, and the Wildcats have a breezy nonconference schedule.
12. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys should rule the new Big 12 behind Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon Jr., QB Alan Bowman, five offensive linemen back and their top WR.
13. Notre Dame: Most of the defensive nucleus is back, but can Riley Leonard be the passer he needs to be?
14. Iowa State: The Cyclones should be a contender with 18 returning starters.
15. Kansas: Don't doubt Lance Leipold. Plus QB Jalon Daniels is back, and RB Devin Neal is solid.
16. LSU: QB Garrett Nussmeier has big Heisman shoes to fill, and the defense has to be built back up.
17. Kansas State: The Wildcats will be helped by 1,200-yard RB D.J. Giddens, an experienced OL and big defensive playmakers.
18. Tennessee: The Vols will rebound after an erratic 2023 season.
19. Penn State: Maybe this is too low, but QB Drew Allar has to step up under another new OC and not just rely on great RBs and defense.
20. Utah: College lifer Cam Rising remains to beef up an offense with stud TE Brant Kuithe.
21. Texas A&M: The Aggies should surprise with QB Conner Weigman and Mike Elko's defense.
22. Memphis: QB Seth Henigan and WR Roc Taylor offer a solid passing attack.
23. Liberty: A 13-1 record and strong returning nucleus provide huge momentum.
24. Boise State: The Broncos slipped to 8-6 but have one of the nation's top RBs in Ashley Jeanty.
25. Jacksonville State: Thirteen returning starters off a 9-4 team know how to win.
My next five — Florida State, North Carolina State, SMU, Washington, Louisville.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Ohio State tops Bohls' premature Top 25 football contenders
