What to watch for in today's nationwide elections

Voters across the country head to the polls for state and local elections on Tuesday — and there are particularly competitive races in four states that will give signals about what voters are thinking and where the national political environment stands ahead of 2024.

Here’s what we’re watching in the key elections in Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio and Virginia.

Kentucky governor: A popular Democrat versus red-state trends

Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is running for a second term in Kentucky, where he faces Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who won a bruising GOP primary in May.

Beshear won his first race in 2019 by less than half a percentage point, defeating then-GOP Gov. Matt Bevin by just over 5,000 votes. Since then, though, he has enjoyed positive approval ratings — in a state where Republicans regularly win by double digits — on the back of his performance handling natural disasters and the state economy.

Cameron and his allies have tried to nationalize the race in the closing weeks, knocking Beshear for supporting President Joe Biden and touting Cameron’s endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who beat Biden by 26 points in Kentucky in 2020. The Cameron campaign recently launched a TV ad touting the endorsement.

Cameron, meanwhile, has faced attacks from Beshear and his allies over his positions on health care and abortion — a sign of how Democrats are seeing the issue as a potent campaign tool even in conservative territory.

As state attorney general, Cameron defended Kentucky’s near-total abortion ban, which went into effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 and does not include exceptions for rape and incest. He has said he would sign a measure adding exceptions for rape and incest if the Legislature sends a bill doing so to his desk.

On health care, Democrats have suggested Cameron will roll back health care for poor people, as Cameron advocates for work requirements for Medicaid. Beshear and his allies have also criticized Cameron for his past support for school vouchers.

Cameron has also ripped Beshear for vetoing a bill that would have banned gender-affirming care for transgender minors. (The veto was later overturned by GOP majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature.)

On the airwaves, Democrats are far outspending Republicans. Beshear’s campaign and its allies have spent a combined $46.2 million on ads since the May 16 primary, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Cameron and his allies, meanwhile, have spent a combined $28 million since Cameron won the nomination in May.

Mississippi governor: GOP campaigns to extend in-state dominance

GOP Gov. Tate Reeves is running for a second term in Mississippi. He faces Democrat Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner in the state.

Reeves beat Democrat Jim Hood in 2019 by 5 points, a closer result than many elections in the solidly red state. And Presley is giving Reeves another competitive campaign this time.

Presley has kept this year's race closer than expected, attacking Reeves over a welfare corruption scandal that was publicized during Reeves’ first term. Reeves has denied involvement in the scandal.

Reeves’ campaign has attacked Presley over medical care for transgender children (though Presley has said he wouldn’t touch the state’s ban on gender-affirming care for minors if elected) and has tied Presley to Biden, who lost Mississippi by more than 16 percentage points in 2020.

Reeves has also touted a recent endorsement from Trump, who recorded a video for him to air as a campaign ad.

Presley has attacked Reeves over health care, particularly on hospital and medical center closures in rural areas. Presley has promised to expand Medicaid if elected governor, something Reeves has failed to do. Mississippi is one of only 10 states that hasn’t expanded Medicaid as allowed under the Affordable Care Act.

On the airwaves, Reeves slightly outpaces Presley in spending on TV ads since Labor Day (Sept. 4), according to AdImpact. Reeves has spent $7.4 million on ads while Presley has spent $6.9 million.

This will also be the first statewide election since Mississippians voted to throw out a Jim Crow-era law that had reduced the power of Black voters. It is also the first statewide election since a federal court threw out a second 1890s law that permanently stripped voting rights from people convicted of certain felonies.

Mississippi also has a new runoff system, meaning this race could go to a Nov. 28 one-on-one matchup between Reeves and Presley in the event no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote. A third independent candidate will be on the ballot, even though she has dropped out and endorsed Presley.

Ohio ballot measures: Abortion and marijuana fights face tests in a red-leaning state

Voters in Ohio will decide two policy issues with national implications on Tuesday.

One in particular has captured national attention: Issue 1, an amendment that would enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution. Ohio has a six-week abortion ban on the books, though it is currently tied up in court. The proposed amendment would allow abortion up to the point of fetal viability.

Ballot measures protecting or expanding abortion rights have won in red and blue states alike since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, and Ohio's vote is another test of the potency of that issue in political campaigns.

Abortion rights groups lost a legal battle over the language about the amendment that would eventually appear on November’s ballot. The state Supreme Court ultimately ruled that the term “unborn child” could remain in the ballot initiative’s language, even though the term is not in the actual amendment to the state constitution.

Another ballot measure that will appear before voters, Issue 2, would legalize recreational marijuana in Ohio. If it passes, it would make Ohio the 24th state in the U.S. to legalize marijuana for nonmedical use among adults.

Ohio voters rejected a past bid to legalize recreational marijuana in the state, but backers are trying again with a different regulatory framework.

Virginia legislative elections: Abortion and other policy at the center of battle for state control

In Virginia, residents have been voting early since September in legislative elections that could significantly affect the direction of the state.

GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who was elected in 2021, is backing Republicans seeking to flip control of the state Senate, which would give the GOP full control over state government.

Democrats are hoping to hold onto their majority in the state Senate and flip the state House of Delegates.

Abortion has been a major issue in races across the state. Youngkin has pledged to sign a 15-week limit on abortions in the state if Republicans take control of the Legislature.

Democrats often cite Virginia as the last state in the South without an abortion ban, and they’ve been fighting on the trail and on the airwaves with a message about protecting access to abortion in the state.

In recent ads in some pivotal state Senate districts, Democrats have painted their GOP opponents as “bad for women,” “extreme,” and “terrifying.”

Meanwhile, Youngkin’s PAC, Spirit of Virginia, has funded a TV ad that includes a woman saying: “It’s just not true — their lies about abortion. It’s disinformation, politics at its worst.”

More broadly, Republicans are also focusing their campaigns on crime and education, promising more “education freedom” if they’re elected and blaming Democrats for crime.

Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris made late endorsements in the campaign over the weekend, announcing their backing of 23 candidates across the state House and state Senate.