The war over FITN could change with Biden out, Harris in
Aug. 2—With Joe Biden out and Kamala Harris in as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, some observers think the future of the first-in-the-nation presidential primary may be more secure going forward.
Fierce defenders of the New Hampshire primary, however, said they take nothing for granted while hoping the frigid relations between the leaders of the Democratic National Committee and Granite State Democrats over the last two years could be warming up.
Former Democratic National Committeeman Bill Shaheen thinks the change at the top of the ticket could be a new lease on life for New Hampshire's tradition.
"Absolutely, I think there's going to be a real change there, I really do," Shaheen said while giving the thumbs-up at a Harris campaign event in Concord this past week.
His wife, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., did not hide her displeasure in the fall of 2022 upon learning Biden had directed and signed off on a Democratic National Committee calendar that tried to strip New Hampshire of the first primary and hand it to South Carolina, the state that resurrected Biden's White House bid in 2020.
A short time later, Shaheen refused to attend a White House state dinner in protest.
But Republican strategist Mike Biundo of Manchester remains skeptical.
"You've got to be hopeful that the Democrats have learned their lesson, that poking the bear backfired on them big time. Some have to know that had there been a real primary contest, voters here and elsewhere might have convinced them that Joe Biden was just not up to the job for another four years," said Biundo, who helped engineer Patrick Buchanan's stunning 1996 primary win over eventual GOP nominee, then-Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole.
"Still, I look around at the people surrounding Kamala Harris and I see some of the same New Hampshire haters that our leaders from both parties have been fighting for decades."
Either way, New Hampshire's top election official said he's sure New Hampshire will be ready.
"People know New Hampshire is going to go first no matter what; that has been demonstrated," Secretary of State David Scanlan said.
"From our perspective we have to be willing to roll in either direction and to do battle as the landscape requires."
A write-in statement
Many Democratic activists believe New Hampshire voters made it much harder for the DNC to stiff the Granite State thanks to their historic write-in campaign that delivered Biden a victory even though he refused to file or campaign in the state.
"New Hampshire Democrats showed the nation, in the face of plenty of obstacles, how to hold an election," said former House Speaker Terie Norelli, D-Portsmouth.
Soon after that result, Biden met with the state's all-Democratic congressional delegation at the White House to thank them for their support.
A month later, Biden visited the first campaign office of the entire 2024 campaign in Manchester.
"You could tell when he came here that the level of support really moved him. I think it was even better than he had expected," said Jim Demers of Concord, a delegate to this month's Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
A more diverse image
Chris Galdieri, professor of politics at Saint Anselm College, credited state Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley with improving the state's position before the DNC once it begins to consider the 2028 calendar soon after the election in November.
While New Hampshire ranks high among states with the fewest minority residents (third from the bottom) and most senior citizens (eighth) per capita, Buckley helped make sure that younger and minority members dominate the 25 delegates elected to this year's convention.
When the DNC warned its rules could block the seating of delegates, Buckley convened an unusual weekend meeting of the Democratic State Committee last April that certified delegates elected at local caucuses.
After that meeting Buckley declared the "delegate selection process" was complete.
"I thought Chairman Buckley played the whole thing beautifully," Galdieri said. "He was in a no-win position. He had to figure out how to please all camps, the party bosses, the liberal base that doesn't like New Hampshire and the fervent defenders of this primary."
Post-primary, the parade resumesDuring the fight over the calendar, New Hampshire became a "no-fly zone" where candidates and top surrogates were warned not to come here.
Since the primary, though, Biden visited twice before bowing out; Kamala Harris's husband, Doug Emhoff, has made two trips; and other leading Democrats have also made stops here, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.
Also visiting since the primary are the top three who beat Biden in New Hampshire's 2020 primary: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
This weekend, Buttigieg is returning to host a Harris fundraiser in Holderness on Saturday and Walz is coming back to campaign in Manchester on Sunday.
Enthusiasm matters
While Trump and Harris haven't been back recently, their state campaigns are building more momentum.
A "Trump Train" call attracted a caravan of more than 300 vehicles on July 28 that clogged roadways en route from Manchester to Pelham.
"Nobody but Donald Trump could inspire that kind of enthusiasm and it just keeps growing," said GOP Chairman Chris Ager. "He's a one-off."
That same weekend, Harris New Hampshire campaign officials reported they had three times as many volunteers knocking on doors as the previous weekend, when Biden was atop the ticket.
Campaign officials said 80% of those going door to door said they were volunteering for the first time this year.
"The boost in energy is palpable," said former Senate President Sylvia Larsen of Concord. "You can feel it out there
Mike Liberty of New London is running in a open Democratic primary for Executive Council against former Lebanon Mayor Karen Liot Hill.
"I watch people's actions rather than public statements," Liberty said. "When you see the parade of future potential presidential candidates coming to New Hampshire even over the past month, I think the primary is going to be just fine."
If Harris is elected, Scanlan said, she could decide either to bury the hatchet with New Hampshire or double down and try to achieve what Biden could not.
"I think either scenario is possible," Scanlan said.
If Trump wins, Scanlan said, potential Democratic contenders, including Harris, should quickly move in to try and build a winning campaign in New Hampshire.
"There is going to be a rush of Democrats into New Hampshire to campaign if they see it as a wide-open opportunity," Scanlan said.
"Time will tell."
