Some Wall Street bankers could see their bonuses jump 25%. But there’s one job where payouts will shrink

Good morning. Big Wall Street bonuses could be making a comeback this year from a multi-year downward trend.

An industry analysis released this morning by Johnson Associates, Inc., a New York-based compensation consulting firm, projects debt underwriters at investment banks will see their year-end 2024 incentives (cash bonuses and equity awards) increase 15%-25%, compared to 2023. Equity underwriters and fixed income trades could see a 10%-20% bump.

“Most sectors will rebound on higher revenues year over year,” according to Christopher Connors, a principal at Johnson Associates. Following a poor 2022, investment banking revenues are sharply higher in several segments, he said. “Equity markets have boosted AUM [assets under management] and revenues in traditional asset management and long-only hedge funds,” Connors said.

An increase in bonuses in the range of 5%-10% compared to 2023 is expected for those in wealth management. Incentives are up on higher revenues and increased competition in the talent landscape, Connors said. “There is certainly a desire for wealth managers to retain their client advisors,” he added.

Wealth management is an area of focus. A recent research report by Allied Market Research finds the market was worth $1.25 trillion in 2020, and projects it to reach $3.43 trillion by 2030.

Meanwhile, corporate staff incentives (projected 5% to 10%) are trending higher with broader bonus pools, Connor said. Unsurprisingly, those at the very top are also in for a good year. For instance, Fortune recently reported that Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S., received his highest annual compensation package to date, a total of $36 million in 2023.

As for traditional asset management professionals, incentives are projected to increase about 5%, while alternative asset professionals are projected to receive a zero to 5% increase.

Johnson Associates’ analysis is based on the firm’s monitoring of the financial services industry, numerous proprietary data points, and public data from eight of the nation’s largest investment and commercial banks, and 10 of the largest asset management firms.

Another finding is despite a weaker fundraising environment, private equity incentives will be moderately higher “partially due to incentive movements in competing talent sectors like investment banking and asset management,” Connors explained.

One business segment, however, is not expected to be sharing in the bounty—projections show those in commercial and retail banking can expect their bonus to be flat or even drop 5%. “Consumer demand has fallen and net interest income is down,” Connors said.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

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This story was originally featured on Fortune.com