Voters sent a message Tuesday, and it’s a good one for Democrats | Opinion

First there was the poll, and then there were the results at the polls.

A New York Times/ Siena poll this week showed former President Donald Trump leading in five of six states that are key to the 2024 presidential election. But the results from Tuesday’s vote showed Democrats doing very well, largely because most voters opposed Republican efforts to limit access to abortion.

In Virginia, Democrats regained full control of the state legislature. In Ohio, voters approved an amendment enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution and in deep red Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection by advocating a moderate agenda. Ohio voters also approved the legalization of marijuana for people 21 and older.

The results, however, didn’t resolve concerns about President Joe Biden’s low approval rating and his eroding support in two key Democratic constituencies – Black voters and young voters.

Still, the results clarified that Democratic issues are prevailing despite misgivings among Democrats about Biden’s age and his complete embrace of Israel in the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The overall trend suggests that when it comes to a choice between Biden and Trump, Democrats will support the Democratic president.

The Ohio and Kentucky results confirmed expectations, but there was genuine suspense about what might happen in Virginia. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin scored an upset there in 2021 by tapping parents’ frustrations with pandemic-related school closures and curriculum issues connected to sex and race.

Youngkin, who was not on the ballot, tried to counter opposition to abortion restrictions by saying a Republican-controlled legislature would settle on a ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the mother. Democrats told voters not to trust that pledge and a majority of voters apparently did not.

Tuesday’s results boosted Democrats and reminded Republicans that their success in overturning Roe v. Wade is a victory that will come at a high price in general elections. Even voters who agree with Youngkin that a 15-week ban is a reasonable standard are still reacting to the Republican-dominated Supreme Court’s taking away a right that had been in place for nearly 50 years.

Youngkin, who is limited by state law to one four-year term, had hoped that a Republican takeover of the legislature would show that his moderate Republican approach was a formula for winning in purple and even blue states. The loss of both chambers Tuesday was a setback for his prospects as a presidential candidate in 2028.

In North Carolina, the election results lacked the national implications of the Ohio and Virginia votes. But the North Carolina vote was significant as a test run for voter photo ID.

Early reports indicated no problems with the new requirement, though it’s not yet known how many voters lacking allowable ID were required to cast provisional ballots and how many of those ballots will be accepted.

The results in Virginia are hard to read regarding North Carolina’s legislative races in 2024.

The Virginia vote showed a preference for Democrats and a return to the state’s recent norm as a blue state. But North Carolina’s vote will involve state legislative districts that are heavily gerrymandered, while Virginia’s districts were set by a court order. Even a Democratic wave election in 2024 may not be enough to breach the barriers Republicans have erected around their districts.

Nonetheless, the Virginia results show that voter frustration with school closures and related concerns about school curriculum have dissipated while concern about conservative restraints on abortion access remains high. That shift likely also will be a factor in North Carolina’s congressional elections.

It’s too early to put much stock in polls or state elections one year before a national vote. But of the two, actual votes are the stronger indicator. Tuesday’s results were encouraging for Democrats and suggest that while many Democratic voters are not happy about an 80-year-old president seeking a second term, the issues Biden supports are moving voters.

Associate opinion editor Ned Barnett can be reached at 919-404-7583, or nbarnett@ newsobserver.com