Sunak dealt two by-election blows as Tories cling on in Boris Johnson’s former seat – live

Rishi Sunak has been dealt two painful by-election blows, despite clinging onto Boris Johnson’s former seat – as Labour recorded its largest swing since 1997.

The race in the former PM’s Uxbridge constituency went down to the wire as a recount in the small hours of Friday – but it was Mr Sunak’s party who clung on, saving him from a “disastrous” triple by-election defeat in something of an embarrassment for Sir Keir Starmer.

But there was joy for Labour too, as they overturned the Tories’ 20,000 majority in Selby and Ainsty in the largest swing since months prior to Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.

In Somerton and Frome, the Lib Dems also stormed to victory, overturning the Tories’ 19,000 majority with significant room to spare, winning by 11,000 votes.

New Lib Dem MP Sarah Dyke hailed tactical voting: “There is no doubt that our electoral system is broken, but you have shown that the Conservatives can still be beaten under it.”

Key Points

• Labour takes Selby and Ainsty as Keir Mather defeats Claire Holme

• Breaking: Tories cling on to Boris Johnson’s old seat

• Labour’s Keir Mather, 25, becomes youngest MP in the Commons

• New: Lib Dems overturn 19,000 Tory majority in Somerton and Frome

“It’s not 1996’: Labour landslide ‘for the birds’, says senior Tory

14:33 , Adam Forrest

Senior Tory Robert Buckland told The Independent: “Selby is a bad result, but the idea that it’s a harbinger of a Labour landslide is for the birds.

“It’s not too late for us – I don’t sense that we’re in a 1996 moment.”

The former justice secretary added: “Uxbridge is a very significant result. It shows Labour is not inspiring enthusiasm and they can be derailed by difficult issues. I wouldn’t be smoking the proverbial cigar if I was them.”

Mr Buckland said Mr Sunak should “set out where he wants to take the country in the next five years” – and warned the PM not to listen to any “glib solutions” on small boats or “go soft” on net zero policies, though green schemes had to be “fair” to hard-pressed families.

Green Party third in all three by-elections

14:24 , William Mata

The Green Party finished third in all three by-elections fought on Thursday night.

The party’s one MP Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election and Sian Berry will contest her Brighton Pavillion seat.

Ms Berry said in the Guardian on Thursday: "[Keir] Starmer is abandoning so many pledges, it’s sending a message to people on the left... they’re no longer the party to improve child benefit policies, control rents. Only Green MPs will be arguing for these things.”

What is ULEZ?

14:07 , PA

What is Ulez for?

Separate from the congestion charge, which is aimed at reducing traffic, Ulez is designed to cut air pollution in the capital by discouraging the use of high-emission vehicles through imposing a daily fee.

It runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week and aims to improve the health of Londoners by reducing the amount of particulate matter and nitrous oxides they breathe.

All cars, motorcycles, vans, minibuses and other specialist vehicles weighing up to 3.5 tonnes.

Generally, petrol cars registered after 2005 and diesel cars registered after 2015 meet the emissions standards. Cars older than this are charged £12.50 a day.

Whose idea was Ulez?

The scheme was first approved in 2015 when Mr Johnson was London mayor but introduced four years later under Mr Khan’s stewardship.

At first, Ulez only applied to central London but in 2021 grew to border the North and South Circular roads as part of a pandemic bail-out agreement between Transport for London (TfL) and the Government.

Mr Khan said he wants to expand the zone further to encompass the outer London boroughs from August 29 to lower the air pollution in those areas.

Opponents of the expansion believe the Mayor is using it as a way to make money for TfL and that it disproportionately affects poorer people who need to drive for work.

Could Ulez be ditched?

The Conservative-run outer London boroughs of Bexley, Bromley, Harrow and Hillingdon along with Surrey County Council have taken legal action against the Mayor of London in the High Court, saying he lacks the legal power to order the scheme’s extension.

They are expecting a judgment on that case before the end of July which could delay the extension, making it a prominent campaign issue in next year’s mayoral and general elections and Labour may choose to reconsider backing it.

Politics professor says ULEZ played ‘significant role’ in Tories winning Uxbridge

13:49 , PA

The Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) debate was likely a significant factor in the the Conservatives' Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election win, a political researcher said.

Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economic's Department of Government said the result, which saw Steve Tuckwell win by 495 votes, may not be indicative of national voting trends because of the strong presence of what is a local issue.

The constituency's new MP said in his victory speech it was London Mayor Sadiq Khan's "damaging and costly Ulez policy" that cost Labour the election.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives failed to retain Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome, losing to Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively.

Prof Travers said of Boris Johnson's old constituency: "It looks as if some number of around 10 percentage points of the vote didn't swing because of Ulez.

"The Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome results tell us more about the future of British politics because Ulez is only an issue in outer London."

Labour MP calls on Khan to ‘suspend’ Ulez expansion

13:46 , Adam Forrest

Labour’s Siobhan McDonagh – MP for outer London seat Mitcham and Morden – called on Mr Khan to “suspend” the expansion and find a way to make sure “those with the broadest shoulders” carry the burden for any changes.

“I think Sadiq should suspend the start date and have another look at it,” she told The Independent – saying the £12.50 charge set to be imposed on outer London drivers from August was essentially a “regressive tax”.

Ms McDonagh said: “It’s a laudable aim to improve air quality, but the question is whether this is the right way to do it.”

Lib Dems hail 'revenge of the farmers' for Tory by-election defeat

13:45 , William Mata

Senior Liberal Democrats believe the ‘revenge of the farmers’ help deliver their stunning by-election win in Somerset – and will help the party bring down part of the Conservative’s blue wall at the general election.

The party secured a huge victory in Somerton and Frome, overturning a majority of more than 19,000 votes.

Visiting the seat Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey fired a mock circus cannon in celebration as he declared it was “time to get these clowns out of No 10”.

See Kate Devlin’s full article here.

Thornberry defends Labour against ‘untruthful’ ULEZ remarks

13:40 , PA

It is "untruthful" of the Tories to claim their "single issue" win in Uxbridge could be replicated across the country at a general election, a shadow cabinet member has said.

Labour's shadow attorney general Emily Thornberry told BBC Radio 4's World At One programme: "To claim that somehow or other you can extrapolate what happened in Uxbridge across the whole of the country when they themselves narrowed it down to one issue is just in the end untruthful.

"There is a truth out of this, which is that we can't be complacent and we need to work really hard and we have a long way to go. We have a mountain to climb, we know that and we will continue to work for it."

Khan: ‘We will listen to Londoners’ Mayor speaks after Uxbridge defeat

13:33 , PA

London Mayor Sadiq Khan said he intends to “listen to Londoners” following Labour’s loss at the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election.

The party’s deputy leader Angela Rayner has suggested Labour did not win Boris Johnson’s former seat because it did not “listen to the voters”’ concerns about Ulez.

When asked about this, Mr Khan told the PA news agency: “I think there are a variety of lessons in relation to the by-elections last night.

“I’m quite clear, I’m going to carry on doing what I have been doing over the past few years, which is to listen to Londoners on a whole range of issues, whether it is air pollution, climate change or the support they need to make that transition.

“It is because we are listening we launched the biggest scrappage scheme in the whole country without a penny of support from the Government.

“It’s because we are listening we widened the eligibility some weeks ago so that more Londoners are eligibile for the scrappage scheme. We are going to carry on listening.”

‘We hear you,’ Starmer insists to new Labour voters after ‘cry for change’ in Selby

13:13 , Andy Gregory

Sir Keir Starmer sought to command a jubilant mood as he, Angela Rayner and his namesake Keir Mather addressed a crowd of supporters in Selby.

The Labour leader declared it “a day of firsts”, after Labour seized Selby and Ainsty for the first time in the constituency’s history and overturned its largest-ever majority at a by-election.

Insisting that he is “always saying ‘no complacency’”, he joked that today marked the “first time ever I can say ‘well done Keir’”, as he welcomed the party’s youngest MP.Greeted by an enthusiastic crowd of supporters at Selby Town Football Club, Sir Keir insisted to those who had issued a “cry for change” that “we hear you” – and claimed the result was “vindication” of the changes he has pushed through in his party.

But pressed by reporters on Labour’s failure to clinch Uxbridge and South Ruislip from the Tories – and asked whether Sadiq Khan should rethink his ULEZ expansion – Sir Keir said that all of those involved should reflect on the result.

Also taking to the small stage set up in cloudy Selby, Ms Rayner said the victory “in Rishi Sunak’s back garden” has “shown we can win in Tory areas as well”.Joking twice that it was “great to be in a Keir sandwich”, she insisted that Labour “knows Tory voters want a credible plan” and said that 25-year-old Mather “knows he has to work hard”, adding: “And the work starts now.”

Speaking just hours after clinching victory and a 4,000 majority, Mr Mather told those gathered that he would “work tirelessly to repay faith shown in him” by typical Tory voters, calling the challenge ahead “the privilege of my life”. After taking questions from broadcasters, the top Labour figures spoke briefly to the campaigners gathered to hear them before walking back across the football pitch and towards the town newly painted red.

Labour’s Uxbridge chair quits and lashes out at Starmer

12:50 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

David Williams, chair of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip Constituency Labour Party (CLP), has resigned his role – lashing out at Keir Starmer’s leadership as he goes.

The left-winger tweeted: “Politics needs to have principles or we end up with people like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss running the country. Jeremy Corbyn gave a huge boost to the Labour Party.”

Watch live: Keir Starmer speaks in Selby and Ainsty after Labour’s Keir Mather wins seat

12:20 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Watch live as Sir Keir Starmer speaks in Selby and Ainsty on Friday, 21 July, after Labour won the seat in Thursday’s by election.

Keir Mather will become the youngest MP in the Commons at 25 years old after overturning a 20,137 majority in the North Yorkshire constituency.

Labour said Mr Mather’s 4,161 majority in the seat was the highest majority the party had ever overturned in a by-election.

Live: Keir Starmer speaks in Selby and Ainsty after Labour’s Keir Mather wins seat

Starmer to address Labour supporters in Selby after historic win

12:07 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Andy Gregory reports from Selby:

Sir Keir Starmer is set to address scores of Labour supporters and an assortment of media in Selby after last night’s historic by-election win.

The party leader is appearing at Selby Town Football Club with Labour’s new and youngest MP, Keir Mather, who last night overturned a 20,000-strong Tory majority.

Labour frontbenchers Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting - to whom Mather was a former aide - were both among the crowd encircling a small stage set up on the pitch for Sir Keir.

Sir Ed Davey says Lib Dem is ‘back’ following party’s success

11:40 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said his party was “back” in the West Country following the party’s success in the Somerton and Frome by-election.

Speaking to the BBC from the constituency, Sir Ed said his party was not “complacent” and would not take voters for granted.

Thanking Labour and Green voters for lending his party votes at the poll, he said: “We are back in the West Country.

“We will certainly not take voters for granted.

“The Conservatives keep taking people in the West Country for granted with their appalling record on the health service, on the economy.

“We won’t be complacent at all. But there are 15 seats in the West Country with majorities smaller than Somerton and Frome was.

“We’ve got every reason to believe that people across the West Country ... are turning to the Liberal Democrats as the party best placed in this part of our country to defeat the Conservatives.”

Top Tories warn Sunak that Labour is heading for No 10 after disastrous by-elections

11:22 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Conservative MPs have warned Rishi Sunak that Labour is on course for general election victory after the double drubbing in Selby and Somerton byelections.

Senior Tories took heart from the surprise victory in Uxbridge – where the party clung on by 495 votes thanks to hatred of Sadiq Khan’s Ulez scheme – but were downbeat about the bigger picture.

One ex-cabinet minister, who backed Mr Sunak’s leadership bid, told The Independent that the huge swing away from the party showed that Sir Keir Starmer was now on course to win the keys to No 10.

Another senior Conservative told The Independent the size of the party’s loss in Selby and Ainsty – where Labour transformed a 20,000 majority and won by 4,000 votes – would “really send the jitters” through Tory MPs.

Top Tories warn Sunak that Labour is heading for No 10 after disastrous by-elections

Watch: Ed Davey fires cannon to celebrate Lib Dem by-election victory

10:50 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Tories still in ‘deep electoral trouble’ despite Uxbridge win, says John Curtice

10:25 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

The Conservatives remain in “deep electoral trouble” despite Rishi Sunak’s relief at clinging on to Boris Johnson’s old seat in Uxbridge, said polling guru Prof John Curtice.

Prof Curtice said the overwhelming defeats to Labour in Selby and the Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome were a “better guide” for the mood in the country.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Taken in the round, these by-election results do suggest that the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble, as the opinion polls have been telling us.”

Across the three seats contested, the Tory vote was down 21 percentage points – comparable to the national polling, Prof Curtice said.

Adam Forrest reports:

Tories in ‘deep electoral trouble’ despite Uxbridge win, says John Curtice

‘Anyone but them’: True-blue Tory voters see red to hand Labour historic Selby by-election

10:06 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Labour has stomped to its largest ever by-election win in Selby and Ainsty, with the 23-point swing celebrated by Sir Keir Starmer’s party rivalling heights not seen since the run-up to 1997’s landslide.

But voters in the Yorkshire market town were not alone in questioning whether the dramatic reversal of the Conservatives’ 20,000-strong majority was more representative of exasperation with the Tories than enthusiasm for Labour’s vision.

Despite the jubilant cheers emanating from its campaign office on Selby’s high street in the small hours of Friday, Labour’s simultaneous failure to clinch Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat – and a similarly huge Lib Dem victory in Somerset – will only serve to compound such concerns.

‘Anyone but them’: True-blue voters see red to hand Labour historic Selby by-election

Uxbridge victory shows anti-Ulez message ‘has now been delivered'

09:52 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Tory Steve Tuckwell said his victory in Uxbridge in South Ruislip shows his message on opposing Ulez “has now been delivered”.

Speaking of Rishi Sunak’s visit to the Rumbling Tum Cafe in Ruislip with him earlier, he told the PA news agency: “It’s great that he came out and supported me.

“He spoke to the team that have been supporting me for the last five weeks. And I think they deserve absolute credit as well because they have been working incredibly hard, very long hours covering lots of ground to get my message over, which is about opposition to Ulez.

“That message has now been delivered and (London mayor) Sadiq Khan now needs to listen.”

Labour election victory not a ‘done deal’, says Sunak – vowing to ‘double down'

09:37 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Rishi Sunak said the Tories’ by-election victory in Uxbridge shows the next general election is not “a done deal” and vowed to “double down, stick to our plan and deliver for people”.

Mr Sunak and the victorious Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell arrived at a cafe in Uxbridge and South Ruislip to loud clapping and cheering.

Speaking at a cafe in Boris Johnson’s former west London seat, the PM said: “Westminster’s been acting like the next election is a done deal. The Labour Party has been acting like it’s a done deal. The people of Uxbridge just told all of them that it’s not.

“No one expected us to win here. But Steve’s victory demonstrates that when confronted with the actual reality of the Labour Party, when there’s an actual choice on a matter of substance at stake, people vote Conservative.”

The PM added: “The message I take away is that we’ve got to double down, stick to our plan and deliver for people. That’s what I heard when I was out on the doorsteps and that’s what we’re going to do.”

Steve Tuckwell ‘privileged and humbled’ by Uxbridge win

09:27 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Tory Steve Tuckwell said: “I’m incredibly privileged and humbled to have been elected as the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

“It’s the place where I was born, the place where I was raised, the place where I have a family and it’s the place where I’ve spent all 54 years of my existence.”

He said prime minister Rishi Sunak congratulated him and “was just sharing the celebration of a great success” during his visit to the west London seat.

Voters ‘don’t like Labour being in power’, claims Tory chair

09:11 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Tory chairman Greg Hands said the party’s win in Uxbridge “surprised everybody” and said the result shows “the electorate don’t like Labour being in power and running things badly”.

“I think the most important takeaway from this is that the electorate don’t like Labour being in power and running things badly,” he told Times Radio.

Mr Hands told Radio 4’s Today programme that Labour’s struggle with Ulez showed they had failed to “go with the grain of human nature”.

The Tory chair insisted that the Tories were not opposed to what David Cameron used to “green crap”, but he refused to say whether it was an opportunity for the party to change tack on the environment and green taxes.

In pictures: Tories win by election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip

08:52 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

The race in Boris Johnson’s former constituency went down to the wire as a recount in the small hours of Friday – but it was Rishi Sunak’s party who clung on as Steve Tuckwell took the win.

Rishi Sunak and Steve Tuckwell thank Tory campaigners on Uxbridge victory visit

08:45 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Rishi Sunak and the victorious Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell arrived at a cafe in Uxbridge and South Ruislip to loud clapping and cheering.

The prime minister chatted to people sitting at the tables, celebrating the result which saw Mr Tuckwell hold on with a majority of just 495, down from the 7,210 Boris Johnson secured in 2019.

“Are you all pumped?” Mr Sunak said to one group as he thanked Tory campaigners.

He also joked: “Normally when I get woken up at three in the morning it’s only bad news. So, it was a welcome change.”

Watch: Keir Mather, UK’s youngest MP, says Labour has ‘rewritten the rules’

08:35 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Labour blames Sadiq Khan’s Ulez for Uxbridge by-election flop

08:27 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Labour has blamed Sadiq Khan and his hated expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) for their shock by-election defeat in Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge.

Deputy leader Angela Rayner admitted that Labour flopped in the north-west London constituency did not win did not “listen to the voters” concerns about Ulez.

Despite overturning a 20,000 Tory majority to take the North Yorkshire seat of Selby, a downbeat Ms Rayner said: “We’ve got to keep our feet on the ground … Uxbridge wasn’t the result, we narrowly lost again in that seat.”

Our political correspondent Adam Forrest reports:

Labour blames Sadiq Khan’s Ulez for Uxbridge by-election flop

Watch: Tory minister mocks 25-year-old Keir Mathers as Labour’s ‘Inbetweeners’ MP

08:17 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Sunak congratulates Steve Tuckwell on Uxbridge win

08:07 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Rishi Sunak congratulated Steve Tuckwell on his “much deserved result” to win in Uxbridge in South Ruislip.

The prime minister tweeted: “Congratulations Steve, a much deserved result after a great campaign.

“I look forward to welcoming you in Westminster as our new Conservative MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip!”

Tory chairman accuses Starmer of ‘flip-flopping’ on Ulez

07:48 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Tory chairman Greg Hands has accused Sir Keir Starmer of “flip flopping” on Ulez.

“There’ll be real questions in Labour headquarters today about not gaining Uxbridge,” the Tory chairman told GB News.

“Londoners see that Labour is not good at running things and they see that Keir Starmer is changing his views all the time depending on the audience that he has in front of him.

“In inner London he’s pro-Ulez, put him in outer London he’s suddenly expressing his doubts about Ulez.”

Polling expert says Tories are in ‘deep electoral trouble'

07:44 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has said the Tories are in “deep electoral trouble” following their by-election defeats.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Taken in the round, these by-election results do suggest that the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble, as the opinion polls have been telling us.”

Across the three seats contested, the Conservative vote was down 21 percentage points which is comparable to the national polling, he said.

He said Labour must ask why its hold on the electorate is “apparently so weak” that when a local issue like the Ulez ultra low emission zone in Uxbridge comes up they “don’t perform as they should”.

Angela Rayner blames Labour loss in Uxbridge on ULEZ

07:34 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Angela Rayner has suggested Labour did not win Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip because it did not “listen to the voters”’ concerns about Ulez.

Asked about her mood, Labour’s deputy party leader told BBC Breakfast: “Well, it’s one of reflection.

“I mean, congratulations to Keir Mather in Selby because it was a historic win, but we’ve got to keep our feet on the ground and, of course, Uxbridge wasn’t the result, we narrowly lost again in that seat.

“I think one of the things we have to reflect on today is not only the mood against the Tories, but also the decision in Uxbridge was related to Ulez.

“The Uxbridge result shows that when you don’t listen to the voters, you don’t win elections.”

Tories still in deep ‘electoral trouble’ despite Uxbridge win, says John Curtice

07:24 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

The Conservatives remain in “electoral trouble” despite Rishi Sunak’s relief at clinging on to Boris Johnson’s old seat in Uxbridge, said polling guru Prof John Curtice.

Prof Curtice said the overwhelming defeats to Labour in Selby and the Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome were a “better guide” for the mood in the country.

“Although Uxbridge will provide Rishi Sunak with some immediate cover, maybe in the end the message from these by-elections is that the Conservatives are indeed in considerable electoral trouble along the lines that the polls are suggesting,” he said.

Labour overturning a 20,000 majority to win Selby and Ainsty – a record win for the party – while the Lib Dems transformed a 19,000 Tory majority in Somerton and Frome into a 11,00-vote cushion.

Adam Forrest reports:

Tories in deep ‘electoral trouble’ despite Uxbridge win, says John Curtice

Boris Johnson piles pressure on Rishi Sunak after Tories keep his old seat

07:15 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Boris Johnson has piled pressure on Rishi Sunak saying the result in his old seat - the only one the Tories took overnight- “shows the Conservatives can win in London and around the country”.

The former prime minister, whose decision to quit as an MP sparked a series of events that led to last night’s double defeat for his party, tweeted: “Fantastic news from Uxbridge. Well done @tuckwell_steve and the amazing Conservative council and association members.

“This shows the Conservatives can win in London and around the country.”

Sadiq Khan acknowledges ULEZ role in Labour’s Uxbridge loss

07:05 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Sadiq Khan has acknowledged the role his Ulez expansion played in the Uxbridge result.

A source close to the London mayor said: “Sadiq has always been clear that expanding the ULEZ was a really difficult decision, but necessary to save the lives of young and vulnerable Londoners.

“Winning Uxbridge and South Ruislip was always going to be a struggle for Labour. Labour hasn’t won this seat for five decades and Tony Blair didn’t even win it during the 1997 landslide.”

Starmer congratulates Mather’s for Selby and Ainsty win

06:58 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Sir Keir Starmer said 25-year-old Keir Mather’s victory in Selby and Ainsty demonstrates the “demand for change”.

The Labour leader tweeted: “Congratulations Mather-Keir, Labour’s new MP for Selby and Ainsty!

“Last night, Selby and Ainsty made history. This incredible result shows how powerful the demand for change is.

“Only Labour can deliver that change, and build a better Britain.”

What we know about Keir Mather, the new youngest MP in the Commons

06:50 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

New Labour MP Keir Mather joked that he had “heard far worse” when asked how he felt about becoming “the Baby of the House”.

The 25-year-old will become the youngest MP in the Commons after overturning a 20,137 majority in the North Yorkshire constituency of Selby & Ainsty.

In a speech after he was declared the winner of the by-election, Mr Mather said he “understood the enormity of what has just happened”.

Katie Dickinson has more.

‘Baby of the House’: What we know about Keir Mather, the youngest MP in the Commons

Anthony Browne says Uxbridge win for Tories is ‘stunning'

06:47 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Tory MP Anthony Browne said it was “stunning” for the government to win a mid term by-election in London.

He said it is “all to play for” in next year’s general election.

Mr Browne said: “It is stunning for the Conservative government to win a mid term by-election in London. These results - each main party winning a seat and Labour failing to gain Uxbridge - shows that it is all to play for in the 2024 General Election.”

Sunak will hold on to Uxbridge by-election result as a drowning man clings to driftwood

06:40 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

In Boris Johnson’s old seat, Tory voters’ hatred for the ULEZ outstripped their gripes with the government – an unusual but localised factor, writes Sean O’Grady.

Sunak will hold on to Uxbridge by-election result as a drowning man to driftwood

Tory mocks 25-year-old Keir Mathers as Labour’s ‘Inbetweeners’ MP

06:37 , Adam Forrest

Senior Tory MP Johnny Mercer mocked the new 25-year-old Labour MP Keir Mather by comparing him to the teen sitcom The Inbetweeners.

“We mustn’t become a repeat of The Inbetweeners, right?” said the senior MP on Sky News.

“This guy has been at Oxford University more than he’s been in a job. You put a chip in him and he just relates Labour lines. People have had enough of that, right?”

Labour peer Baroness Chapman fired back: “You’re being disrespectful to the voters of Selby.”

UK by-election results: Everything you need to know

06:36 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Rishi Sunak has suffered a double by-election defeat in safe Tory seats, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats both overturning majorities of about 20,000.

Labour won Selby and Ainsty and the Lib Dems took Somerton and Frome on sizable swings which will leave many Tory MPs looking nervously at their own majorities.

But the Tory leader was spared the prospect of being the first prime minister since 1968 to lose three by-elections.

Rich Booth explains some of the key facts and statistics from the results of Thursday’s by-elections.

UK by-election results 2023: Everything you need to know in graphs

Tactical voting works, says winning Lib Dem

06:35 , Adam Forrest

Sarah Dyke, who won Somerton and Frome by more than 11,000 votes, hailed the use of tactical voting to defeat the Tories.

She thanked Labour and Green voters for “lending” her their votes: “There is no doubt that our electoral system is broken, but you have shown that the Conservatives can still be beaten under it.”

She added: “I will work every day to repay your faith and trust in me.”

Selby and Ainsty by-election result

06:33 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Selby and Ainsty was the third by-election result to come in this morning.

The vote was necessitated following the resignation of Nigel Adams, a close ally of former prime minister Boris Johnson.

Labour made history by winning the seat as Sir Keir Starmer’s party achieved the largest swing from the Conservatives since February 1997, and the second-largest ever.

New Labour MP Keir Mather defeated his Tory opponent Claire Holmes, with 16,456 votes to her 12,295, with the 25-year-old set to become the “Baby of the House” as the youngest MP in the Commons.

Take a look at the front page of The Independent’s 5am by-election special edition

06:30 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Somerton and Frome by-election result

06:28 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Somerton and Frome is the fourth seat the Liberal Democrats have taken from the Conservatives at a by-election since the 2019 general election, all of which have changed hands on huge swings in the vote.

Sarah Dyke, a Somerset councillor, won the seat with 21,187 votes, while Conservative councillor Faye Purbrick trailed in second with 10,179 votes.

The swing at Somerton was 29.0 percentage points, or the equivalent of a net change of 29 in every 100 people who voted Tory in 2019 switching sides.

This is well above the 14.9 point swing the Lib Dems needed to win the seat.

The by-election in Somerton and Frome came about because MP David Warburton resigned after admitting taking cocaine.

Mr Warburton has also been accused of making unwanted advances towards two women, which led to his suspension last year.

Boris Johnson hails Uxbridge victory

06:19 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Former prime minister Boris Johnson hailed the Uxbridge election result, which was the saving grace for the Tories after losing the other two seats.

“Fantastic news from Uxbridge. Well done Steve Tuckwell and the amazing Conservative council and association members,” Mr Johnson said, according to PA news agency.

“This shows the Conservatives can win in London and around the country.”

Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election result

06:17 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by a majority of 495 votes, retaining former prime minister Boris Johnson’s seat for the Conservatives.

The by-election was necessitated by Mr Johnson’s resignation from the constituency after he was handed a report from a committee of MPs investigating whether he lied to parliament about Partygate.

Mr Tuckwell received 13,965 votes to Labour’s Danny Beales’s 13,470 to claim the constituency for the Tories.

Labour needed a swing in the share of the vote of 7.6 percentage points to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip from the Conservatives, but fell short and managed only 6.7 points.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip candidates stage protest against ULEZ scheme

06:06 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Candidates Leo Phaure (Independent), Kingsley Hamilton (Independent), Steve Gardner (Social Democratic Party), and Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) stage an anti-ULEZ protest on stage after Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election.

More woes for Sir Keir as Labour loses council by-election

06:01 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Labour also lost a council by-election in Swindon, where Sir Keir Starmer launched the party’s successful local election campaign earlier this year.

Tory candidate Matthew Vallender beat Labour’s Joseph Polson in a contest held after the sudden death of the Labour councillor for St Margaret & South Marston, Pam Adams, who had been elected for the ward in 2022.

The loss will have added to Sir Keir’s misery, according to pollster and political analyst Lord Hayward.

He told The Independent’s Archie Mitchell that “losing a council seat in Swindon itself is not surprising, but Swindon is where Sir Keir launched his local government campaign and it contains two seats Labour will want to gain.”

He added: “So to lose a council seat where he launched his local government campaign will have added to his misery.”

Labour fails to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip by just 495 votes

05:55 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Labour needed a swing in the share of the vote of 7.6 percentage points to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip from the Conservatives, but fell short and managed only 6.7 points.

The Conservatives won 13,965 votes, Labour 13,470 and the Liberal Democrats 526.

This is well below the 12.7-point swing Labour achieved at the Wakefield by-election in June 2022, when they won the seat from the Tories.

Labour did manage to cut the Conservative majority at Uxbridge from 7,210 at the 2019 general election to just 495, while the Tory share of the vote fell from 53 per cent in 2019 to 45 per cent.

Labour’s share of the vote rose from 38 per cent to 44 per cent.

Environment secretary Thérèse Coffey congratulates Tory candidate on ‘tremendous’ Uxbridge win

05:40 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

People are ‘fed up’ and ‘frustrated’ with Tories, says Sarah Dyke

05:24 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Sarah Dyke, the newly elected MP for Somerton and Frome, said she was “excited, exhilarated and most of all humbled” at the result.

“It’s unbelievable and most of all I am delighted that finally Somerton and Frome have finally got a voice in the constituency but also in Parliament and I can’t wait to get started,” she told reporters.

“I think the result here shows a very clear message now that the Liberal Democrats are back in the West Country.

“Not only do we have the largest group of Liberal Democrat councillors on Somerset Council we now have an MP in Somerset.”

When asked about what message the voters had sent to prime minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives, Ms Dyke replied: “Clearly, they are fed up and they are frustrated, they are angry and they want a hard-working Liberal Democrat MP.

“They want a local champion and they have elected me to do that.”

Labour’s Keir Mather, 25, will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons

05:14 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Conservatives in electoral trouble despite Uxbridge win, says John Curtice

04:57 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

The Conservatives remain in “electoral trouble” despite their unexpected victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice.

Sir John told BBC that the local issue of Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULZE) had played a significant role in Uxbridge.

“The Conservatives themselves seem to be acknowledging that the local issue of ULEZ played a significant role in Uxbridge.

“It may well be in the end that we have to come to the judgement that it’s Selby and Somerton that provide us with a better guide.

“To that extent at least, although Uxbridge will provide Rishi Sunak with some immediate cover, maybe, in the end, the message from these by-elections is that the Conservatives are indeed in considerable electoral trouble along the lines that the polls are suggesting.”

‘Privilege of my life’, says Keir Mather

04:36 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Newly-elected Labour by-election candidate Keir Mather said it was the “privilege of my life to be elected as the Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty”.

“Together we have made history and delivered a fresh start for our community. Now, it is time for a fresh start for Britain,” he tweeted.

ULEZ policy made Uxbridge win difficult, says Reynolds

04:35 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has insisted the party’s ULEZ policy made it difficult for Labour to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

The Ultra Low Emission Zone or ULEZ is a scheme under which the most polluting vehicles are charged a fee for driving in certain areas of London. The expansion of the scheme under Labour’s London mayor has been met with widespread criticism locally.

Mr Reynolds told the BBC: “You’ve got a situation where things are very tough for people right now – the mortgages they’re paying, the energy bills that they have got.

“And of course then when they are faced with a potential additional charge, that is going to be a difficult thing.”

Somerton and Frome win shows Lib Dems ‘firmly back in the West Country’, says Ed Davey

04:24 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Sir Ed Davey said the Liberal Democrats are “firmly back in the West Country” after the party’s win in Somerton and Frome.

The Lib Dem leader said voters in the constituency were “fed up with Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch Conservative government”.

He added: "This stunning victory shows the Liberal Democrats are firmly back in the West Country.

"Sarah Dyke will be an incredible local champion for the people of Somerset who have been neglected for far too long. She will fight for stronger local health services, better access to GPs and a fair deal for rural communities during this cost-of-living crisis.

“The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the rest of the country who are fed up with Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch Conservative government.”

Keir Starmer calls Selby and Ainsty win ‘historic’

04:18 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Sir Keir Starmer declared Labour’s win in Selby and Ainsty “a historic result”, saying the result “shows people are looking at Labour and seeing a changed party”.

The Labour leader said: “It is clear just how powerful the demand for change is. Voters put their trust in us — many for the first time. After 13 years of Tory chaos, only Labour can give the country its hope, its optimism and its future back.”

He added: “This is a historic result that shows that people are looking at Labour and seeing a changed party that is focused entirely on the priorities of working people with an ambitious, practical plan to deliver.

“Keir Mather will be a fantastic MP who will deliver the fresh start Selby and Ainsty deserves."

Archie Mitchell reports.

‘It’s time for a fresh start,’ says new Labour MP

04:14 , Andy Gregory

Labour’s new MP, 25-year-old Keir Mather, has said he “won’t shy away from the work that’s to come”.

In his victory speech, he said: “I want to begin my time as your MP by being very clear – I understand the enormity of what has just happened, I know what an honour this is, ad I am humbled by this opportunity to serve.

“In this campaign, we have rewritten the rules on where Labour can win. People have opened their doors to us and embraced our positive vision for the future, and thousands of votes cast yesterday were in Labour’s box for the very first time.

“For those of you who have put your faith in our party, thank you. I don’t take it lightly and i won’t let you down. And I won’t shy away from the work that’s to come.

“The people of Selby and Ainsty have sent a clear message. For too long, the Conservatives up here and in Westminster have failed us, and today that changes. It’s time for a fresh start.”

Breaking: Labour takes Selby and Ainsty

04:07 , Andy Gregory

Labour has beaten the Conservatives in Selby and Ainsty, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party achieving it’s largest swing since February 1997.

New Labour MP Keir Mather defeated his Tory opponent Claire Holmes, with 16,456 votes to her 12,295, with the 25-year-old set to become the “Baby of the House” as the youngest MP in the Commons.

Voter turnout on Thursday was 44.77 per cent, down from 72 per cent at the 2019 general election.

Tuckwell: ‘From the outset of this campaign, I have been the underdog'

03:55 , Andy Gregory

Uxbridge and South Ruislip’s new Tory MP Steve Tuckwell said he was the underdog “from the outset of the campaign”, reports my colleague Archie Mitchell.

“The polls and the pundits predicted a big Labour win,” he told reporters.

Speaking after the result was announced, Mr Tuckwell added: “The people of Uxbridge and South Ruislip used their collective voice and come together as a community and said, We do not want Ulez.

“Keir Starmer needs to listen and Sadiq Khan needs to listen.”

Mr Tuckwell said Labour MPs in outer London boroughs, whose constituents will also be affected by London mayor Khan’s Ulez expansion, will be “looking at this result with sweaty palms”.

Declaration expected in Selby and Ainsty

03:40 , Andy Gregory

The declaration in Selby appears to be imminent now, with the candidates and media scrum gathering near the stage, where these pivotal results will soon be announced.

‘Tories can still be beaten’, says new Lib Dem MP

03:19 , Andy Gregory

Speaking after the declaration of the result, Somerton and Frome’s new Lib Dem MP Sarah Dyke thanked Labour and Green voters for “lending” her their votes.

“There is no doubt that our electoral system is broken, but you have shown that the Conservatives can still be beaten under it.”

Sarah Dyke: ‘Lifelong Conservative voters have today voted Liberal Democrat for the first time’

03:17 , Archie Mitchell

In her victory speech, Somerton and Frome’s new Liberal Democrat MP said Conservative voters had put their trust in the party for the first time.

Sarah Dyke said: “While families struggle to put food on the table, or pay their mortgage, or simply see their GP this Government is too busy being a circus of chaos.

“Well, the people of Somerton and Frome have said it loud and clear tonight: Enough is enough.

“People here have been left without a voice in Parliament for far too long. That changes right now. Instead of an absent Conservative MP letting you down, you have an active Liberal Democrat MP lifting you up.”

Ms Dyke added: “Lifelong Conservative voters have today voted Liberal Democrat for the first time. Thank you for putting your trust in me to deliver for you. I will not let you down.”

‘Unsurprising Ulez was an issue,’ Labour claims

03:11 , Andy Gregory

Labour has claimed it was “unsurprising” Ulez was such an issue for the party in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, blaming the Conservatives for “crashing the economy”, reports our political correspondent Archie Mitchell.

During the by-election, the Conservative candidate stood primarily on an anti-Ulez platform, while several independent candidates fought on a ticket opposing the scheme’s expansion.

Reacting to the loss, a Labour spokesman said: “This was always going to be a difficult battle in a seat that has never had a Labour MP and we didn’t even win in 1997.

“We know that the Conservatives crashing the economy has hit working people hard, so it’s unsurprising that the ULEZ expansion was a concern for voters here in a by-election.”

Lib Dems win Somerset by-election by 11,000 votes

03:05 , Andy Gregory

Sarah Dyke has won the former Tory seat of Somerton and Frome by 11,008 votes, in a dramatic swing away from Rishi Sunak’s party – despite its 19,000 majority in 2019.

But the Tory leader was spared the prospect of being the first prime minister since 1968 to lose three by-elections on the same day as Labour failed to secure victory in Boris Johnson’s former seat.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party had hoped to take Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which the former prime minister held with a majority of 7,210 in 2019, but Tory Steve Tuckwell managed to retain it with a majority of just 495.

Labour’s hopes are now pinned on Selby and Ainsty, where it is seeking to take a seat where the Conservatives were defending a 20,137 majority.

Labour Uxbridge loss raises ‘serious questions’ for Starmer, Tory MP

03:00 , Andy Gregory

Reacting to the result, Tory MP David Simmonds said Sir Keir Starmer has “some serious reflecting to do” while parliament is in recess, reports my colleague Archie Mitchell.

Mr Simmonds told The Independent: “To go in with a 40-point lead and expect to win a seat easily and to come out with this result … he's got some serious reflecting to do over the summer recess.

“It reflects a fantastic local candidate and just how concerned people are about Ulez.”

‘Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election,’ new Tory MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip

02:57 , Archie Mitchell

In a victory speech, Steve Tuckwell, who will become the new Conservative MP for Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat, said: “This message from the Uxbridge and South Ruislip residents is clear. and southwest residencies keep these clear. Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election.

“We know that it was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost in this election. I'm humbled and proud to be elected as the MP for the area in which I was born, raised and built a family in and to represent my home is a huge honour.

“The pundits expected labour to win big here, but our community came together, and I'm thankful to them and the hundreds of activists that came out to deliver this message.

“This wasn't the campaign labour expected. And Keir Starmer and his mayor Sadiq Khan need to sit up and listen to the Uxbridge and South Ruislip residents.”

New: Lib Dems overturn 19,000 Tory majority in Somerton and Frome

02:56 , Andy Gregory

The Liberal Democrats have won the Somerton and Frome by-election, where the Conservatives had a majority of more than 19,000 at the last general election.

Breaking: Tories cling to Boris Johnson’s old seat

02:46 , Andy Gregory

Labour has fallen short in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election in a significant blow to Sir Keir Starmer, reports Archie Mitchell.

The party had been widely expected to overturn former prime minister Boris Johnson’s 7,000 majority in the seat.

But Labour’s Danny Beales was beaten by Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell, who secured 13,965 votes.Mr Beales came second with 13,470 votes.

Labour candidate arrives in Uxbridge after Tory jibes

02:26 , Archie Mitchell

And he is here ... Labour candidate Danny Beales has arrived at the recount in Uxbridge, just shortly after Tory MP David Simmonds suggested he must “still be busy”.

Labour’s Danny Beales must be ‘busy in Camden’, jibes Tory MP

02:24 , Andy Gregory

The taunting has begun in Uxbridge, where Labour's candidate Danny Beales is yet to show up, my colleague Archie Mitchell reports.

After the recount begun, Tory MP David Simmonds told The Independent Mr Beales must "still be busy in Camden", a reference to him having been a councillor in the London borough for the past eight years.

And, as the counting of the vote went down to the wire, a gloomy Labour source told The Independent it "looks like they are a lot more chipper than we are".

Sir Robert Buckland: ‘Losing all three seats is highly likely’

02:19 , Archie Mitchell

Senior Tory Sir Robert Buckland said it will be “a tough night for the government” and the Conservatives will need to “reflect” on the results.

The former justice secretary said losing all three seats is “highly likely” but claimed there is “no real enthusiasm” for opposition parties.

“Of course, results like that will be of concern,” he told Sky News.

He added: “Governments lose by elections… this is a fact of life. However, what it means is that we can't be complacent.

“We have to reflect on what we're being told. And we have to respond appropriately. The way we respond is by sticking to the plan.”

Recount called in Uxbridge

02:00 , Archie Mitchell

It is going down to the wire in Uxbridge and South Ruislip ... where a recount has been called.

After totalling the votes for all the candidates, the Tories and Labour were so close the votes are having to be recounted.

Stay tuned...

‘The public are fed up to the back teeth with the Conservatives,’ says Darren Jones

01:55 , Andy Gregory

A very happy looking Labour MP said the Liberal Democrats’ performance in Somerton and Frome shows voters are “fed up” with the Tories, reports my colleague Archie Mitchell.

Darren Jones said the early declaration of victory from the Lib Dems showed voters had sent a “very clear message” to the government that it is “time for change”.

The Liberal Democrats claim to have “romped home” in the Somerset seat.

Mr Jones told Sky News: “That shows that in areas where there were very significant conservative majorities in the last election, the public are fed up to the back teeth of the Conservative government in Westminster and want to send a very clear message that it's time for change.

“That will reduce the Tory majority in any Westminster election for the whole country. And so that's welcome.”

Selby and Ainsty turnout considerably down on 2019

01:49 , Andy Gregory

Officials at the Selby and Ainsty by-election have just announced a turnout of 44.77 per cent, with some 35,886 ballots included in the count.

That compares to a turnout of 72 per cent in 2019.

Tory MP in Selby: “We can and we can not win … and the thing is we don’t know.”

01:35 , Archie Mitchell

Tory MP Andrew Jones is in Selby and Ainsty, and has said the contest will be “very close”.

He blamed the resignation of Boris Johnson loyalist Nigel Adams, who quit after not being given a peerage, as “the reason it will be very close”.

“Nigel's resignation has been a source of some disappointment, and added some anger in some cases,” Mr Jones said.

Mr Jones told Sky News: “This is a difficult time that we have had plague, we've had war. These are huge factors which are affecting not just this country, but right across the world.

“They want their local champion to be speaking up for them, and they are not quite sure why he's not doing that now.”

But even if the Tories lose, Mr Jones insisted it is “midterm stuff” and midterm by-elections are particularly difficult for long-standing governments.

By-election offers Selby chance to land blow on both Tories and Labour, voter suggests

01:20 , Andy Gregory

Gary Robson, aged 70, took his dog Cookie to the polling station in Selby today, and suggested the timing of today’s by-election offered voters the chance to ultimately deal multiple parties a blow.

“You can vote somebody new in this time and in 12 months time can vote them out if they don’t do what you want them to do. So it’s a bloody nose for both lots, then,” the retiree told The Independent.

Speaking with disdain for outgoing Tory MP Nigel Adams, Mr Robson said: “He did nothing for Selby – nothing … I get the impression that he was in it for his own wellbeing and when he didn’t get an honour in the old PM’s list, he went.”

Asked about the big issues in this ballot, the retiree cited Mr Adams’ departure and the Tories’ failure to crack down on cross-Channel migration, adding: “I’m sick of the fact that umpteen prime ministers – all for the Conservatives – have said they were going to do this, that, the other, and did none of it.”

The Monster Raving Loony Party has arrived at the count.

01:12 , Andy Gregory

The Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election is Howling Laud Hope's 32nd shot at securing a Parliamentary seat, a UK record.

Asked by The Independent whether the 32nd time is the charm, an optimistic Mr Hope said: “Who knows.”

Steve Reed: ‘Tory candidate is ashamed of his own party’

01:06 , Andy Gregory

Labour’s shadow justice secretary Steve Reed has claimed the Tory candidate in Uxbridge is “ashamed of the record of his own party”, reports my colleague Archie Mitchell.

Mr Reed said Steve Tuckwell, who is running to replace Boris Johnson for the Conservatives, has tried to “distance himself” from the party. There has been a notable lack of mentions of the Conservatives, Rishi Sunak or Mr Johnson on Mr Tuckwell’s campaign material.

Mr Reed told reporters: “What people are talking about, on their own doorsteps up and down the country is the cost of living.

“Yet we have the representative of the governing party in a by-election who has absolutely nothing to say about any of that and is also running away from his own party branding.”

Mr Reed said campaigning has “felt very positive” and Labour is “in with a chance” of winning the seat. “This was the seat that said Boris Johnson as the Conservative prime minister to parliament,” he said.

Mr Reed added: “If you had said to me then that three and a half years later, we would be back in Uxbridge and Labour was even in with a chance of taking the seat, I would have thought you were bonkers.”

Youngest candidate in Selby has ‘already achieved his objectives’

Friday 21 July 2023 00:59 , Andy Gregory

The youngest candidate in the race in Selby and Ainsty told The Independent that he had already achieved his objectives in the by-election.

Tyler Wilson-Kerr, a 24-year-old parish councillor and aerospace engineer who is standing as an independent candidate, said: “I’ve achieved my objectives, which were to politicise the closure of 24-hour services at Selby War Memorial Hospital.

“Since 2017, it’s been open only 12 hours a day. The next closest hospital is in York, Leeds or Wakefield, and because these villages are very rural, I raise the question of how many people have passed away while getting to these far-away hospitals when there’s one just on the doorstep.

“So even though [Labour and the Tories] have been saying things about ‘we’re going to prioritise the NHS, we’re going to get a new diagnostic unit’ – fundamentally, you need the hospital to be open.

Satisfied that the issue is “now in the Overton window”, he continued: “I don’t like this politics of division and divide and conquer that you see from both parties.

“I think it’s a consequence of the electoral system but you watch PMQs and it’s just loggerheads, nonsense and waffle while real people suffer. Reopen 24-hour service at Selby war memorial hospital.”

Anti-vaxxer Laurence Fox has said a loss for the Tories is a win for him

Friday 21 July 2023 00:49 , Andy Gregory

Laurence Fox, the former Lewis actor, who has gone on to set up the Reclaim Party, said a “good night for me is making sure the Conservatives lose”, reports Archie Mitchell from the count in Uxbridge.

Mr Fox told The Independent: “For me, getting enough votes for Labour to beat the Conservatives would be great. They deserve to lose because they are not Conservatives.

“Labour are not Labour either, they are just one party, but some time in opposition for the Conservatives might make them be Conservatives.

“And if Labour spent some time in power they might have to actually do what they were meant to do and help working people – instead of woking off everywhere.”

Mr Fox insisted he did not want to exist as a politician, but felt the need to pile pressure on the major parties.

Labour warns votes ‘will be close’ in Selby and Uxbridge

Friday 21 July 2023 00:42 , Andy Gregory

In an apparent bid to manage expectations in the two seats where Tories fear Keir Starmer’s party could pull off victories despite having massive 2019 majorities to overturn, Labour has warned that “it will be close” in both Selby and Uxbridge.

A Labour source in Selby told The Independent: “We think it will be close, but the fact that we’re even in play here – a true blue Tory seat in Rishi Sunak’s back yard – is testament to how far we’ve come as a party, and our positive offer for Selby and Ainsty and the country”

Lib Dem claims to have ‘romped home’ in Somerset raises eyebrows

Friday 21 July 2023 00:31 , Andy Gregory

Labour’s Jess Phillips has given a wry assessment of Lib Dem claims to have “romped home” in Somerset.

Sunderland typically races to be the first to announce its results during general elections, declaring its verdict just 48 minutes after polls closed in 2015.

Tory MP at the count in Uxbridge: ‘I’m feeling positive’

Friday 21 July 2023 00:25 , Andy Gregory

Tory MP David Simmonds is at the count in Uxbridge and South Ruislip and told The Independent he feels “positive”.

Mr Simmonds said: “The feedback and the doorsteps has been really good … it is clear the Ulez issue is cutting through and people clearly have that at the front of their minds.

“The fact [Conservative candidate] Steve Tuckwell is very recognisably a local candidate who people understand is from this community has come across very strongly as well.”

But Mr Simmonds warned voters will be weighing the positives against “any message they may want to send the government”.

The Tories have warned circumstances surrounding the contests, such as rampant inflation and the ongoing fallout from Boris Johnson and Liz Truss’s government, have made the contests “challenging”.

“We are going to find out tonight how that balance strikes,” Mr Simmonds said.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey thinks his party is on for a win

Friday 21 July 2023 00:10 , Archie Mitchell

The stunt-prone Liberal Democrats – who in March drove a tractor through a mock “blue wall” to celebrate the party’s success in traditionally Tory areas – are showing early signs of optimism.

Leader Sir Ed Davey has taken to Twitter to declare: “I think we’re going to need a bigger tractor.”

And in an email to supporters, Sir Ed added: “We are on for another historic result. People are fed up with being taken for granted by this out-of-touch Conservative Government.

“That’s why so many people are turning to us, to get the Conservatives out and fight for a fair deal. It’s why I’m confident we will win big tonight.”

The turnout in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was much lower than in 2019

Thursday 20 July 2023 23:58 , Andy Gregory

In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, just 31,002 voters cast ballots on the day, down from 48,187 in the 2019 general election, Archie Mitchell reports from the count.

By-elections usually see lower turnouts than national contests, but just 46.23 per cent of eligible voters showed up, compared with 68.5 per cent in 2019.

Final ballots arrive at Selby count centre

Thursday 20 July 2023 23:52 , Andy Gregory

The final ballots have now been delivered to the count in Selby, after polls closed across the constituency, officials have announced.

An ‘appetite for change’ in Selby, say Lib Dems

Thursday 20 July 2023 23:33 , Andy Gregory, in Selby

While all Lib Dem eyes are focused on Somerton and Frome tonight, party sources insist “there is an appetite for change” in Selby.

“We’ve been realistic resources-wise when we’ve got three by-elections going on. The one that we can clearly win against the Tories is the one down in Somerset,” a Lib Dem source told The Independent.

They believe there has been a “slight shift in narrative” at these by-elections and recent local elections “where people are shifting towards national issues rather than hyperlocal issues” – citing voters “just being fed up” with the state of the NHS, failure to tackle crime, and the cost of living crisis.

“From what weve heard on the doors it seems clear theres a lot of Tory disdain and there was a lot of general enthusiasm for a different voice for Selby and Ainsby … there is an appetite for change, and a few years ago people hated the word ‘change’,” they said.

“But right now there is an appetite for change. They’re ready to get a different MP, for sure.”

What polling experts are looking for

Thursday 20 July 2023 23:03 , Jane Dalton

Elections expert Martin Baxter told The Independent by-elections were “not great” indicators of how parties will do in general elections.

But Mr Baxter, chief executive of polling council member Electoral Calculus, said three losses for the Tories would be “not good” for the party. “If the Conservatives lose all three very heavily, then that will be a very bad sign for them,” Mr Baxter said.

He said: “Whatever happens, by-elections are not a great guide of what is to come. You get a flavour of what people are thinking but history is littered with results which differ from general elections before and after them.

“Essentially, the thing to look for is whether the swings in each of the seats are bigger or smaller than the swings seen in the polls nationally.”

Counting in Uxbridge

Thursday 20 July 2023 22:42 , Jane Dalton

The key contenders

Thursday 20 July 2023 22:37 , Jane Dalton

In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Labour’s Danny Beales hopes to defeat the Tory Steve Tuckwell, although rows over the Mayor of London Sadiq Khan’s decision to extend the low-emission zone for drivers may cost Labour votes.

In Selby and Ainsty, North Yorkshire, 25-year-old Keir Mather will become the new baby of the House if he wins for Labour, with Tory Claire Holmes trying to retain the seat for her party.

Somerton and Frome has Sarah Dyke hoping to win for the Liberal Democrats, while Faye Purbrick wants to ensure it stays Conservative.

Counting in Selby

Thursday 20 July 2023 22:34 , Jane Dalton

Counting of votes is under way in Selby, North Yorkshire.

Losses would give Sunak dilemma

Thursday 20 July 2023 22:31 , Jane Dalton

Losing any constituency – or all three – would increase Tory pressure on Rishi Sunak.

While Mr Johnson held his seat with a majority of only 7,210 as he led the party to a national landslide in 2019, the Tories had a cushion of around 20,000 votes in the other two constituencies.

The Prime Minister could attempt to reset his administration with a Cabinet reshuffle in the wake of the contests. Defence secretary Ben Wallace has already signalled he will quit the government so there is a vacancy to be filled, although No 10 has publicly insisted there are no plans for a shake-up.

Mr Sunak would need to decide whether the benefits of freshening up his team at this stage would be outweighed by the risk of it being perceived as a panicked response to an electoral setback.