What the Vegas odds say about the Kansas City Chiefs-Jacksonville Jaguars matchup

At the onset of the season, before a single game had been played, the Chiefs’ schedule had been characterized as not only the most difficult in football but one of the most difficult the league had ever seen. Their first eight opponents, after all, had winning records the year before.

Which is all to say that this is the week it finally lightens up.

Right?

Depends who you ask.

The most (only?) relevant answer comes from the sportsbooks, and Chiefs are indeed favored 9 1/2 points Sunday against the visiting Jaguars.

That might not be a one-week reprieve, by the way. Ranked by winning percentage, the Chiefs have the third-easiest schedule remaining in the NFL.

The Chiefs, in their usual fashion, would have you believe otherwise — that the Jaguars are actually better than their 3-6 record. Given what I just said about the schedule lightening up, we can expect to hear a lot more of that over the next two months.

Are they? The metrics do like the Jaguars a bit more than the standings do, though it’s not like they are a drastic outlier. They’re basically an average team with a below-average record.

What matters most Sunday is how these two teams match up with each other, and that’s where the Chiefs will enjoy a particular benefit because of where the Jaguars are weakest.

In coverage.

The Jaguars have the 27th-best pass defense in the league, according to Football Outsiders’ all-inclusive DVOA metric, and it just so happens the Chiefs lead the NFL in passing.

That’s the matchup that drives my pick this week, which is for the Chiefs to narrowly cover the line.

For what it’s worth, the Chiefs are 3-5 against the spread this year, and the Jaguars are 3-6.

The over/under for the game is 51 points. Half of this season’s Chiefs games have hit the over. Four of the nine Jaguars games have reached the over.

The line: Chiefs -9.5

The pick: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 20

Last week’s pick: Chiefs -12.5 vs. Titans

My record against the spread this year: 5-3

PLUS THREE

1. Patrick Mahomes over 299.5 yards

It’s a big number, but Mahomes has thrown for 446, 423 and 338 the last three weeks, and this represents a more friendly matchup than any of those did.

The concern is the possibility of the Chiefs building a big enough lead to implement the run in the second half – but that should be off-set by the fact the Jaguars rushing defense is considerably better than their pass defense.

Bottom line: This is a prime matchup for a big game for Mahomes.

2. Isiah Pacheco, under 32.5 rushing yards

Pacheco is operating under a new role over the past three weeks.

Sort of.

Sure, he technically started against both the 49ers and Titans, but it’s not like he’s taken the job and run with it. (No pun intended.) He has 13 carries for 48 yards over those two games.

Over the past seven games, Pacheco has been held below 10 yards five times.

3. Travis Etienne, over 97.5 rushing and receiving yards combined

Etienne, the Jaguars running back, has rushed for 109, 156 and 114 yards in his last three games. I’m going with the total yards for the wager, rather than narrowing it to the 80.5 rushing yards, to guard against the event the Chiefs get a big lead early and the Jaguars can’t run the ball as frequently as they’d planned.

Etienne has seen a significant uptick in snap counts over the last three weeks, staying on the field even in passing downs. He has played at least 56 snaps each of those games after never topping 40 in the first six.

He’s been effective in his touches (5.7 yards per carry), but sheer volume helps to get him to the 97.5.

Prop bet record last week: 1-0

Prop bet record this season: 11-11