What the Vegas odds say about Kansas City Chiefs’ home opener vs. LA Chargers: betting

It’s the second week of a 17-game schedule, but it certainly feels as though this could wind up being one of the more important Chiefs games of the season.

The Chargers are the toughest challenger to the Chiefs winning a seventh straight AFC West crown, and part of that is because their 17-week slate of games is a tad easier than the Chiefs’.

In the end, both teams should be in the playoffs, and I have them splitting the two in-season matchups — both holding serve at home. But this isn’t just about predicting the winner.

We’re looking at the betting margin, too.

The line has toggled a bit this week, but as of this writing, the oddsmakers have the Chiefs favored by 4 1/2 points on their home field — a place the Chargers have won three of the past four seasons ... though, to be fair, one of those victories came with Patrick Mahomes and other key starters resting on the sideline after the Chiefs had already clinched a playoff berth. So let’s toss that one.

Even so, all three Justin Herbert-Patrick Mahomes showdowns have either come down to the final minute or required overtime to determine a winner. Both quarterbacks are good enough to carry a team to a win Thursday, and both were superb in their 2022 openers last week, even if the final score only indicated as much in one of their games.

The Chargers were more dominant on the stat sheet than their 24-19 final score against the Raiders indicated. Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA metric actually rated the Chargers ahead of the Chiefs after Week 1. The Chiefs, though, were the highest-graded team on Pro Football Focus, though I guess mentioning PFF is taboo in Kansas City now? Or can we still use it when it speaks highly of the Chiefs?

As I wrote earlier Wednesday, the Chargers will be a more difficult matchup for the Chiefs’ offense than the Cardinals, who for some head-scratching reason decided blitzing Mahomes was the way to go. (It is very much not the way to go.)

All things considered, give me the Chiefs to win. But when it comes to the sportsbook, I’ll take the Chargers and the points.

The over/under for the game is 54 1/2 points, and you’ll hear momentarily what I think of that number.

The Chargers are 1-0 against the spread, covering a 3 1/2-point line against the Raiders.

The Chiefs easily cleared last year’s 6 1/2-point margin against the Cardinals in their opener.

The pick: Chiefs 26, Chargers 23 (Chargers +4 1/2)

Last week’s pick: Chiefs -6

My record against the spread this year: 1-0

PLUS THREE

1. Under 54.5 total points

This is against the grain, but 54.5 is a really high number in the NFL — highest in the league this week — and both of these defenses are better than the credit they’re receiving. They’ve each improved from a year ago in critical spots, even accounting for the fact neither will be at full strength Thursday.

The Chiefs were a garbage-time minute away from a better defensive outing in their opener than they had in any regular-season game all of last year. While I understand they will be without cornerback Trent McDuffie, keep in mind they had enough to beat the Chargers in Los Angeles a year ago without defensive tackle Chris Jones and linebacker Willie Gay. I also expect the game to be close, which would prevent a late backdoor cover for the over.

For what it’s worth, The Star’s Blair Kerkhoff disagrees with me on this one — in case you wondered how the sportsbooks make their money.

2. JuJu Smith-Schuster over 57.5 receiving yards

The Chiefs don’t have a true No. 1 wide receiver in the aftermath of the offseason Tyreek Hill trade, but Smith-Schuster is the closest thing to it. His six-catch, 79-yard day in the opener will be more trend than anomaly. And it looks as though the Chargers will be without cornerback J.C. Jackson, their free-agent prize. A week ago, the Raiders’ top receiver, Davante Adams, put up 141 yards. Smith-Schuster isn’t on Adams’ level, but he’s the best bet to eat up the largest chunk of yards.

3. Mike Williams over 66.5 receiving yards

Williams has eclipsed this number in five of his past eight matchups with Kansas City. Also, the Chiefs will be without a starting cornerback in McDuffie, and the Chargers will be without No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen, allowing for a potential big day for Williams. He’s also a big-play threat, aided by a quarterback with an arm to match, which is why I like the yards prop more than the receptions prop with Williams.

Prop bet record last week: 1-2

Prop bet season record: 1-2