Here’s what the Vegas betting line says about Sunday’s noon Chiefs-Broncos game in KC

The Broncos’ mess is kind of the Chiefs’ mess, and that’s meant to be complimentary to the latter.

The Broncos are in the thick of one now, at least in part, because they had to do something to catch the Chiefs. Or die trying, right?

That something, it turns out, entailed a coaching change and a quarterback change, and the only debate now is which was worse.

Russell Wilson has been terrible, and Nathaniel Hackett didn’t survive his first season on the job — and his reputation didn’t survive his first game.

But if the Chiefs initially were the cause of this mess, even if in some roundabout way, now they are its effect. Because the Broncos come to Kansas City on Sunday, their first game since firing Hackett and asking Jerry Rosburg to temporarily run the show.

How will that affect things? It’s a mystery, but the oddsmakers in Vegas sum it up succinctly: Not much.

The Chiefs are favored 12 1/2 points against the visiting Broncos, the largest remaining line of the week after the Cowboys were a two-touchdown favorite on Thursday.

That’s how Vegas sees it, and I’ll get shortly to how I see it, but I do think it’s worth pointing out the history that my colleague, Jesse Newell, dug into here. Sometimes teams in these spots — playing a first game for an interim coach — can perform above their means.

I don’t see this being one of those days. The Broncos were right to move on from their head coach sooner rather than later, but the quarterback remains a problem from which they cannot escape.

Three weeks ago in Denver, Patrick Mahomes tied a career-high with three interceptions, and the Chiefs still won the game by six. This ensuing pick should be seen as a sign that I’m sticking with the metrics from that game that are generally more repeatable — such as the Chiefs gaining nearly two yards more per snap than the Broncos.

But, hey, this column put up its first ever goose egg last week, so follow at your own risk, apparently.

The line: Chiefs -12 1/2

The pick: Chiefs 31, Broncos 14

Last week’s pick: Seahawks +10

My record against the spread this year: 7-8

PLUS THREE

1. Russell Wilson, under 1.5 passing touchdowns

You’ll have to pay a little extra cash to get the payout on this one, but it certainly feels as though there’s too much weight being placed on Wilson’s outing against the Chiefs two weeks ago. It’s not that it’s irrelevant that Wilson threw three touchdowns in that game. But is it enough to overshadow the fact that’s the only game he’s thrown more than one touchdown since Week 4?

Well, my pick suggests I think not.

2. Travis Kelce, over 70.5 receiving yards

He’s reached this number eight of the past 10 weeks, and in those other two, he came within 15 yards of it. I also think there’s at least a possibility, even if slight, that the Chiefs could force extra play calls designed for No. 87, given he has an outside shot at some single-season franchise records in yards and receptions.

3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, under 2.5 catches

It’s been a quiet December for Valdes-Scantling, who has a total of four catches in three games, totaling 46 yards. His playing time is taking a dip, too — he was on the field for just 23 offensive snaps a week ago and did not catch a pass.

The Broncos figure a tough team if the object is a “get right” game. Not only are they one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, but Valdes-Scantling caught just one pass against the Broncos three weeks ago, and that arrived late in the fourth quarter.

Prop bet record last week: 0-3

Prop bet record this season: 22-21