How Vanderbilt women's basketball can make first NCAA Tournament since 2014

Vanderbilt women's basketball was picked to finish last in the SEC in the league's preseason poll. Instead, the Commodores are off to their best start since 2011-12.

At 11-1, they have the chance to surpass last season's win total of 12 before conference play even starts. The Commodores have two nonconference games remaining, against Fairleigh Dickinson on Dec. 29 (6:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network+) and Radford on Dec. 31 (1 p.m. CT, SEC Network).

SEC play begins Jan. 4 with a trip to Mississippi State.

"I don't talk about results a lot," coach Shea Ralph said after a win over Dayton on Dec. 20. "I talk about the process of being a winner. If you want to be a championship team, you first have to have a team of champions. You have to have kids on your team that understand the importance of winning every possession even if you don't score or you don't get a stop. You still want possession with the things that you can control.

"And so as we move forward now into into the latter part of our nonconference season, we'll keep focusing on those things that we need to get better at . . . and make sure that we fill the gaps where they exist so that when we get into January, February and especially March, we're playing our best basketball."

Here's what Vanderbilt needs to do to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2013-14 season.

Historical trends

In recent years, about half of the SEC has qualified for the NCAA Tournament. Seven teams made it from the conference in 2021 and 2023, and eight teams made it in 2022.

Of the 22 teams, all but Arkansas in 2022 had 11 losses or fewer overall. Those Razorbacks were also the only team that did not finish in the top half of the conference to still get a bid. They finished tied for eighth with a 7-9 conference record; the other team at 7-9, Missouri, was left out.

Aside from that Arkansas team, all of the other SEC at-large tournament teams were at least .500 in conference play.

For the Commodores, the number to target is eight SEC wins. With just one nonconference loss so far, if they end up with double-digit overall losses, it will be with an SEC record that is likely too poor for the tournament anyway.

NET matters

Every SEC team that qualified for the NCAA Tournament in the past three seasons was in the top 40 of the NET except 2022 Florida, which was 48th.

Vanderbilt is not currently in the top 50 of the NET, instead having hovered in the mid-50s to low 60s throughout nonconference play. However, it has not yet played many top teams, so if it can put up a strong SEC record, the NET likely will improve.

Vanderbilt's NET ranking has remained in the middle of the pack in the conference.

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How conference play is shaping up

The Commodores' SEC schedule is manageable. Six of their eight SEC home games are against teams ranked lower than they are in the NET as of the win over Dayton.

Florida, Missouri, Auburn and Ole Miss are all on the schedule in the first month of conference play, and all of those games are winnable.

The harder part is that in three years under Ralph, Vanderbilt has yet to win an SEC road game. The Commodores have won just six total road games in that span.

Though a trip to No. 1 South Carolina is daunting, the rest of the road schedule provides opportunities. Vanderbilt's first SEC road game is against Kentucky, which already has losses to Austin Peay and Cincinnati. Georgia, Arkansas and Missouri also provide opportunities for road wins.

If Ralph's squad wants to truly make noise, it should target a win over Tennessee. The Lady Vols (6-5) have struggled, though they are likely to improve with star Rickea Jackson back from injury. Tennessee transfer Justine Pissott likely will go into the matchup motivated.

While Vanderbilt could get to a .500 record simply by beating the mid- and lower-tier teams in the SEC, it does not have a marquee win and as such, would do well to pick up at least one in the conference schedule. South Carolina is likely too much to ask, but beating a team like Alabama, Mississippi State or Texas A&M would go a long way toward forcing the NCAA Tournament committee to pay attention.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on Twitter @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt women's basketball can make NCAA Tournament: Here's how