US Supreme Court rules on Moore v. Harper case. Here’s what it means for NC elections

North Carolina has become the epicenter of gerrymandering lawsuits, and on Tuesday all eyes were on the Supreme Court as the justices told the state’s Republican lawmakers that they aren’t as independent as they want to be.

Justices released an opinion Tuesday in a case known as Moore v. Harper on whether lawmakers could change and create election laws without oversight from the courts.

“The Elections Clause does not insulate state legislatures from the ordinary exercise of state judicial review,” the opinion said.

The 65-page document left people interpreting legalese and asking a lot of questions. We try to answer them here:

What is Moore v. Harper?

Moore v. Harper is a case that came before the U.S. Supreme Court following the 2020 census and is considered one of the most high-profile elections cases in recent history due to its potential impact on voting laws.

North Carolina’s Republican leaders argued that the state legislature had nearly absolute authority when it came to creating and changing federal election laws, after being sued for creating a congressional map that was ruled as having been unfairly drawn to give Republicans the advantage.

Why is it important?

Had the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Republican lawmakers, it could have given state legislators total discretion to create and change election laws without checks and balances from state courts.

What did the US Supreme Court decide?

The U.S. Supreme Court opined in a 6-3 decision that the “independent state legislature theory” floated by North Carolina Republicans is incorrect and that they are still held to judicial scrutiny.

What does it mean for NC Supreme Court’s decision?

In February, the N.C. Supreme Court, after a Republican majority of justices were elected to the bench, reversed its own ruling and said that lawmakers could create maps as they saw fit, without court-imposed restrictions on partisan gerrymandering.

The previous state Supreme Court, led by Democrats prior to the 2022 elections, had ruled a map as unconstitutional because it had been gerrymandered to give Republicans an unfair advantage.

Tuesday’s ruling doesn’t undo the state-level decisions, so lawmakers will continue to have a free hand as long as they have a favorable N.C. Supreme Court. The U.S. Supreme Court has left decisions about partisan gerrymandering to the states.

However, Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer noted that the U.S. justices have said in a recent Alabama redistricting case that racial gerrymandering in elections will still be heard before the country’s highest court.

“They can use partisanship, but they have to be careful with race,” Bitzer said. “And herein lies the dilemma, particularly in the South, of trying to tease out race in politics. It’s pretty much a no-win situation.”

Bitzer said in the South, Black voters overwhelmingly vote Democrat, while white voters have moved toward the Republican Party. So in North Carolina, lawmakers have to be careful about racial gerrymandering, which can trigger a potential for a federal lawsuit.

“I think where we will be looking at the maps will be about the issue of race rather than politics,” Bitzer said.

What does this mean for NC congressional districts?

North Carolina’s U.S. House districts are currently held by seven Democrats and seven Republicans.

Bitzer says he expects to see lawmakers draw a new congressional map that gives Republicans 10 seats and Democrats four. That leaves three Democrats at risk of losing their seats.

Who is at risk?

Bitzer thinks that the most at risk would be Rep. Kathy Manning, a Democrat from Greensboro, Rep. Wiley Nickel, a Democrat from Cary and Rep. Jeff Jackson, a Democrat from Charlotte.

Nickel currently sits in North Carolina’s only true swing district on its current map, as drawn by an independent mapmaker by order of the court.

Jackson and Manning are in districts that could easily be diluted with Republican voters from surrounding rural areas.

“Part of the question is what do they do with Don Davis’s district,” Bitzer said. “And therein lies the race issue.”

Davis, a Democrat from Snow Hill, represents the 1st Congressional District, and took over the seat from longtime Rep. G.K. Butterfield, who retired after saying Republicans had racially gerrymandered his district to dilute Black voices.

“I think Don Davis was a district, from what I’ve kind of read and seen after the Alabama case, his district may be a little more safe than what it was,” Bitzer said. “Just because the court has kind of laid a line down to say, you know, we’re still going to be involved in this issue of race and redistricting.”

Davis, Jackson and Nickel have all been named targets of the National Republican Congressional Committee as holding seats the campaign group wants to flip red in the 2024 elections.

What does this mean for the state races?

“I think the three Democrats in particular may have to look for other opportunities,” Bitzer said.

Several statewide elections are open, with no incumbents, which could appeal to any members of Congress shut out of running for reelection.

When does North Carolina plan to redraw districts?

On Tuesday, shortly after the opinion dropped, House Speaker Tim Moore reiterated to The News & Observer that he’s looking at September or October to redraw the congressional districts.

Bitzer said this timeline allows the lawmakers to pass maps just before the candidate filing deadline, which could mean the courts would deal with any lawsuits after next year’s elections.

Candidate filing for statewide offices begins at noon on Dec. 4.