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Researchers overwhelmingly agree: If you want to win an election, you’ll need money.

To win a school board election, though, there’s something else that winning candidates typically have: teachers union endorsements.

There are no guaranteed recipes for success, of course, and election wins depend on voters, turnout, and other factors. But the data supporting the trends is difficult to ignore.

A January study from Boston College political science professor Michael Hartney found that across over 2,300 school board elections between 1995 and 2020 in California, 71% of union-endorsed candidates won.

That percentage was even higher at roughly 90% for union-backed incumbents and slightly lower at about 66% for union-backed challengers.

Regardless of where the money’s coming from, outraising your opponents usually gives you an edge.

The teachers’ union-backed candidate and top earner, Andy Levine, trounced his three opponents in April’s special election for the Fresno High-area seat.

As for the upcoming Nov. 8 election, trends have emerged among the crowded candidate pool across the district’s four school board races.

Fresno Unified’s teachers’ union has endorsed three incumbents and one challenger that could change the balance of power on the board. Three of those candidates are also among the top earners in this election.

The receipts

The Fresno Teachers Association, representing approximately 4,200 teachers in the district, has been the most generous donor in FUSD races on the upcoming midterm ballot.

The union’s PAC has contributed $40,000 in total.

That money has been divided among three incumbents — Edison-area trustee Keshia Thomas, the Sunnyside-area’s Valerie Davis, and the McLane area’s Veva Islas — and one challenger, Bullard-area candidate Susan Wittrup.

All four union-backed candidates have outraised their opponents.

Not only that, but the union has been sending volunteers out into the community, FTA president Manuel Bonilla told the Ed Lab, to knock on doors and encourage residents to vote for the FTA’s endorsed candidates.

It’s effective, Bonilla said, because “we know that educator voice is trusted in the community.”

But teachers’ unions aren’t the only interest groups tipping the scales in this election.

Granville Homes, a prominent Fresno home builder, has donated $20,250 between two candidates. That includes the single largest donation reported in this race: $15,000 to Wittrup, who has been in a longtime relationship with Granville’s CEO, Darius Assemi. Granville also made a smaller $250 donation to Wittrup, plus a $5,000 donation to Davis.

Granville Homes is no stranger to Fresno Unified elections. Earlier year, Daniel Renteria, the special election’s runner-up, received several thousand dollars in donations from Granville Homes.

Spencer Enterprises, another Fresno development company, rivals Granville with a total of $20,000 in donations from company employees. Half of that money has gone to Wittrup, the other half to Davis.

The company’s president, Richard Spencer, has also donated over $1 million in support of ballot Measure E, which would fund renovations to Fresno State’s Bulldog Stadium, among other campus improvements.

Several other real estate and construction companies have also contributed thousands to Wittrup’s and Davis’ campaigns.

It’s adding up: According to Fresno County records filed as of Oct. 20, Wittrup is the top fundraiser in Fresno Unified’s November elections, with $163,000 in contributions. Davis is second with over $50,000.

Studies indicate this fundraising is likely pay off on Nov. 8.

It’s been clearly demonstrated at the federal level. According to FiveThirtyEight, the nonprofit Center for Responsive Politics found that between 2000 and 2016, over 86% of the top-spending candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives tended to win their races.

The advantage is especially true for challengers, the New York Times reported during the 2014 midterm elections. At least in congressional elections, the more challengers spend, the more they win — although the opposite is often true for incumbents.

‘There’s a lot more at stake now’

For Fresno-area developers, the interest in local school board races has a bottom line — better schools typically equal higher property values.

But developers who spoke with The Bee’s Ed Lab said better schools also amount to better communities.

When asked about the company’s interest in the Sunnyside and Bullard-area races, Spencer Enterprises explained as much.

“Spencer Enterprises owns or manages about 800 apartments which are located within the boundaries of the Fresno Unified School District,” company representative Jordan Pishione said in an email to the Ed Lab. “The operation of the district is therefore very important to our company – and the operation is a function of the board.”

Granville CEO Assemi also stressed in an interview with the Ed Lab that the future of Fresno Unified and the community at large are linked.

“Education is very important to me,” he said. “The future of our community — of our city — depends on the education of our kids, and we have lots of issues at Fresno Unified.”

Large-scale construction projects and renovations are also things that schools regularly undertake. For a district as large as Fresno Unified, that can be lucrative for any companies or individuals in the business of building and improving properties, said Fresno State political science professor Thomas Holyoke.

He also suggested another perk — one that may not become clear until long after a Fresno Unified candidate takes office.

For some aspiring politicians, Fresno Unified’s school board is their first elected gig, he said, but not their last. Some candidates have their sights set ultimately on a city council seat or even the state legislature — where developers stand to benefit down the road over issues like land use.

“That’s what a lot of campaign financing is,” he said. “It’s building a relationship.”

These trends aren’t unique, either. You could find similar patterns in most cities, Holyoke said.

But in terms of developer interest in Fresno, it’s likely “accelerated” as more and more Californians move inland to places like Fresno.

“There’s a lot more at stake now,” he said. “A lot of people are paying a lot more attention, I think, to what the future of the city is going to be and how much we’re going to expand.”

The Education Lab is a local journalism initiative that highlights education issues critical to the advancement of the San Joaquin Valley. It is funded by donors. Learn about The Bee’s Education Lab at its website.