UNC basketball just misses NCAA Tournament, declines invitation to postseason NIT

North Carolina officially became the first preseason No. 1 in the Associated Press’ Top 25 poll to not make the NCAA Tournament on Sunday when the full field was announced. A short time later, the Tar Heels made their own announcement, saying they chose not to extended their season by playing in the National Invitation Tournament.

In a statement released by the school on Sunday, coach Hubert Davis said:

“All season our focus and goal have been on being the best team we can possibly become and reaching our full potential to give us another opportunity to compete, play for and win an NCAA championship. Although we no longer have that opportunity and this season wasn’t what we had hoped for, I want to thank our players and staff for their hard work and love for Carolina basketball. Many factors go into postseason play and we believe now is the time to focus on moving ahead, preparing for next season and the opportunity to again compete for ACC and NCAA championships. I also want to thank our great fans for their incredible support. Our commitment to you is what drives us to improve our program in every way.”

The tournament selection committee, of which UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham is a member this year, revealed Sunday that the Tar Heels were the third team among the first four out.

Simply put, the Heels just didn’t have enough wins that mattered.

Carolina’s win against Virginia at home was the only one that remained as a Quad-1 win according to NCAA NET rankings. It finished 1-9 in the category. (N.C. State, which had a 1-6 record against Quad-1 teams, received an at-large bid as a No. 11 seed in the South region.)

What could have changed things?

Every chance the Heels had to build their tournament resume seem to follow the same formula of coming up short. They held second half leads against Iowa State, Alabama, twice against Pitt, at Virginia, at N.C. State and both games against Duke. The story of the season was their inability to close out strong.

The Heels didn’t win a meaningful road game. Their road wins came at Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Florida State — all teams that ranked in the bottom half of the ACC.

It didn’t help that neutral site wins against Ohio State and Michigan did not stand up over time. The Wolverines were the only Big Ten team with a winning conference record that did not make the tournament. The Buckeyes were ranked when Carolina won 89-84 in overtime, but suffered a precipitous decline and finished second to last in the Big Ten.

Grounds to complain?

Carolina’s non-conference strength of schedule ranked 20th nationally according to Ken Pomeroy. Only five teams (Alabama, Gonzaga, Oral Roberts, San Diego State, Texas Southern) that made the NCAA Tournament field had a tougher slate.

The ACC’s 20-game unbalanced schedule had UNC playing 10 games against the top six teams in the league. By contrast, Clemson finished third in the league with a 14-6 record on the strength of playing 13 games against the bottom seven teams in the league.

That’s why simply looking at Carolina’s overall record doesn’t tell the full story. The Heels played a tougher schedule than some of the teams that slipped in the tournament ahead of them. (Looking at you, Utah State.)

What’s next?

With the season officially finished, now the wait is to see how the roster will shuffle. Forwards Leaky Black and Pete Nance have officially exhausted their college eligibility.

Armando Bacot and Justin McKoy, who were both seniors, could return for a fifth year thanks to the NCAA’s waiver for those who played the 2020-21 season during the COVID-19 pandemic.

There could be a number of players who either enter the transfer portal or decide to begin their professional careers, so the 2023-24 roster could end up having some new players vying to become the face of the program.