Ukraine-Russia war – live: ‘Powerful explosion’ rocks central Moscow as Ukrainian drone downed near Kremlin

A building in central Moscow has been damaged in a drone attack in the early hours today, causing a “powerful explosion” heard across the business district of the Russian capital.

Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the drone was shot down by Russian air defence systems but that debris from the exploded drone fell on the city’s Expo Center, less than 5km (3.1 miles) from the Kremlin. A video published by Russian media outlets showed thick smoke rising next to skyscrapers.

The Russian defence ministry blamed the “Kyiv regime” for carrying out the “terrorist attack” but added that there were no casualties in the strike.

“The UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), after being targeted by air defence weapons, changed its flight path and fell on a non-residential building in the Krasnopresnenskaya Embankment area of Moscow,” the ministry said.

It comes as the United States approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands to defend against Russia’s invading forces, as soon as pilot training is completed.

Key Points

  • Moscow building damaged in drone attack

  • Russian ‘convict’ assault squads straining Ukraine’s northeastern front

  • Putin scrambles to convene currency control meeting over tumbling rouble

  • Russian troops flee cluster bombs as Ukraine says recaptures settlement

  • Ukraine hits out at ‘ridiculous’ suggestion it could give up land to Russia

  • Captured Ukrainian soldiers ‘tortured’ in Russian prison

  • US warns Russia and North Korea against military ties

China’s defense minister promises to boost cooperation with Belarus

04:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

Chinese defence minister Li Shangfu on Thursday visited Belarus and said his country would increase military cooperation with Russia‘s neighbour and ally, where Moscow is deploying tactical nuclear weapons.

Shangfu met with strongman president Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk and said “the purpose of my visit to Belarus is precisely the implementation of important agreements at the level of heads of state and the further strengthening of bilateral military cooperation.”

Full story here:

China's defense minister promises to boost cooperation with Russian ally Belarus

Moscow building damaged in drone attack

03:48 , Arpan Rai

A building in central Moscow has been damaged in a drone attack in the early hours today causing a blast heard across the business district of the Russian capital, officials said.

A witness in the area described it as “a powerful explosion”.

Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the drone was shot down by Russian air defence system but the debris from the exploded drone fell on the city’s Expo Center, less than 5 kilometres (3.1 miles) from the Kremlin.

A video published by Russian media outlets showed thick smoke rising next to skyscrapers.

The Russian defence ministry said that Ukraine was behind the drone attack.

No immediate comment was issued from Kyiv.

Ukraine has rarely claimed responsibility for attacks inside Russia and territories held by Russia.

ICYMI: How Ukraine’s first lady struck a hammer blow against Putin via the UK

03:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

Sitting with Olena Zelenska in the fortified presidential complex in Kyiv, her understated delivery belied a strong defiance of Russia’s invasion.

Britain’s sanctions against Moscow’s war machine were quickly expanded in the wake of her interview with The Independent’s International Correspondent Bel Trew.

Watch it here:

How Ukraine’s first lady struck a hammer blow against Putin via the UK

Ukrainian accounts of torture ‘go way beyond rogue Russian troops’, UN warns

02:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

Allegations of Ukraine’s civilians being snatched from their homes and abused in makeshift detention centres go “way beyond” the actions of rogue Russian soldiers, the UN’s special rapporteur on torture has warned.

Dr Alice Jill Edwards has written to Russian authorities detailing the accounts she has received of harrowing and widespread human rights abuses by Moscow’s troops in Ukraine since Vladimir Putin’s invasion – including electrocutions, mock executions and threats of genital mutilation.

Read Andy Gregory’s report here:

Ukrainian accounts of torture ‘go way beyond rogue Russian troops’, UN warns

How many casualties has Russia suffered in Ukraine?

01:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

Local independent media group Mediazone, branded a “foreign agent” by the Kremlin, work hard, operating within a tightly-controlled environment, to offer its own running total of Russian casualties in Ukraine based on what its journalists can corroborate from publicly available information, which currently puts the total at just 28, 652 as of its latest update of 28 July.

But there’s more to that story.

Joe Sommerlad reports:

How many casualties has Russia suffered in Ukraine?

Wagner tracker: Charting Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary group through the Ukraine war

Friday 18 August 2023 00:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

From Bucha to the battle for Bakhmut, we track Wagner’s bloody role in Vladimir Putin’s invasion:

Charting Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group through the Ukraine war

Prague cancels performance by Russian soprano Anna Netrebko

Thursday 17 August 2023 23:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

A scheduled performance by Russian opera singer Anna Netrebko in the Czech capital has been cancelled over political pressures as Russia wages war on Ukraine, Czech officials said.

The announcement came days after the Prague government said that all its coalition parties “unequivocally” opposed the concert, calling it “insensitive”.

Prague’s Municipal House, where Netrebko’s 16 October performance was to take place, and the Nachtigall Artists Management, an agency that organised it, have agreed on the cancellation.

The soprano will not demand compensation, the organising agency confirmed.

The Czech Republic has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine during the war.

Russian soprano Anna Netrebko (Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)
Russian soprano Anna Netrebko (Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

The governing coalition in Prague is made up of the same political parties that comprise the Czech government.

Netrebko sued the Metropolitan Opera in New York City over its decision to cut ties with her last year for refusing to repudiate her support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Her 2023-24 season includes engagements with Berlin’s Staatsoper unter den Linden, the Vienna State Opera, Milan’s Teatro alla Scala and the Paris Opera.

ICYMI: Why tensions have been growing along NATO’s eastern border with Belarus

Thursday 17 August 2023 22:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

Poland is deploying thousands of troops to its border with Belarus, calling it a deterrent move as tensions between the two neighbors ratchet up.

Those tensions between Poland — a NATO and European Union country — and Belarus, which is Russia’s ally in its war on Ukraine, have been building up in recent months on the border.

Here is why:

Why tensions have been growing along NATO’s eastern border with Belarus

Russia opens a criminal investigation into a leader of a prominent election watchdog

Thursday 17 August 2023 21:30 , Maanya Sachdeva

The Russian authorities have opened a criminal investigation into one of the leaders of a prominent independent election monitoring group, his lawyer said Thursday.

The case against Grigory Melkonyants, co-chair of Russia’s leading election watchdog Golos, is the latest step in the months-long crackdown on Kremlin critics and rights activists that the government ratcheted up after sending troops into Ukraine.

Read more here:

Russia opens a criminal investigation into a leader of a prominent election watchdog

Lukashenko says Zelenskiy halted direct contacts between Ukraine and Belarus

Thursday 17 August 2023 21:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

There have been direct contacts between Ukraine and Belarus but Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky put a halt to them, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko said during an online interview broadcast on Thursday.

The last such contact occurred a few months ago, he said during in the interview with Diana Panchenko, a pro-Russian Ukrainian journalist.

According to Mr Lukashenko, the topics discussed included a potential Belarus involvement in the war on Russian side, potential use of nuclear weapons and Wagner Group mercenaries, now stationed in Belarus.

“These questions accumulated. But we had these contacts, we talked. We don’t mind. And there are still proposals to continue this dialogue.”

Turkey ‘warned Russia after cargo ship incident’ in Black Sea

Thursday 17 August 2023 20:30 , Maanya Sachdeva

Turkish authorities warned Russian counterparts after an incident involving a cargo ship in the Black sea which took place within international waters, Turkish presidency said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Thursday.

“Following the incident with the ship counterparts from Russia are warned in an appropriate way to avoid these kinds of attempts that will escalate tensions in the Black Sea,” the presidency said.

On Sunday, Russia said in a statement its Vasily Bykov patrol ship had fired automatic weapons on the Palau-flagged Sukru Okan vessel after the ship’s captain failed to respond to a request to halt for an inspection.

Ukraine tells military-age citizens to 'overcome their fear' in recruitment campaign

Thursday 17 August 2023 20:00 , Maanya Sachdeva

Ukraine‘s defence ministry urged military-age citizens to update their data at army enlistment offices and “overcome their fear” in a campaign launched on Thursday as a summer counter-offensive grinds through its third month.

The campaign, which draws on slickly-produced videos and photo testimonials of prominent soldiers describing their fears, aims to break down a major obstacle in army recruitment, deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said.

“We’re all living people and we all overcome this fear in order to win,” she said, noting that military-age citizens are duty-bound to keep their personal data at draft offices up-to-date.

Poland Russia Ukraine War (Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)
Poland Russia Ukraine War (Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

As she outlined the campaign, Ms Maliar was careful to say that not all those who updated their personal data would automatically be mobilised into the army and that not all those who are mobilised would end up in a combat zone.

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a general mobilization after Russia‘s February 2022 full-scale invasion and military reservists between the ages of 18 and 60 are eligible for conscription.

“Bravery conquers fear,” ran one of the campaign’s slogans. “Everyone has fears in a war. I do too,” a Ukrainian soldier who fought in Bakhmut was quoted as saying.

Putin not pushing Belarus to enter war with Ukraine, says Lukashenko

Thursday 17 August 2023 19:26 , Maanya Sachdeva

Russian president Vladimir Putin is not trying to push Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko said in an online interview published on Thursday.

“To involve Belarus... what will that give? Nothing,” said Mr Lukashenko, one of Putin’s closest allies, whose country borders Ukraine, Russia and three NATO countries including Poland.

“If you Ukrainians do not cross our border, we will never participate in this war. In this hot war. But we will always help Russia - they are our allies,” he said in the interview with Diana Panchenko, a pro-Russian Ukrainian journalist.

Mr Lukashenko warned that Belarus would respond in the event of external aggression, including through the use of nuclear weapons that Moscow has stationed on its territory.

“There can be only one threat - aggression against our country. If aggression against our country starts from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, we will respond instantly with everything we have,” he said.

What are hypersonic missiles and how powerful are they?

Thursday 17 August 2023 18:26 , Maanya Sachdeva

Russia is in the process of equipping its new nuclear submarines with hypersonic Zircon missiles, the head of Russia’s largest shipbuilder has said.

Here’s everything to know about “the next generation of arms”:

What are hypersonic missiles and how powerful are they?

Latest update on Ukraine fuel stockpiles from UK Ministry of Defence

Thursday 17 August 2023 17:26 , Maanya Sachdeva

Ukraine is already stockpiling fuel ahead of another challenging winter under siege from Russia, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said on Thursday.

Read the full report by Maroosha Muzaffar here:

Latest update on Ukraine fuel stockpiles from UK Ministry of Defence

China to increase military cooperation with Belarus

Thursday 17 August 2023 17:04 , Andy Gregory

China will increase military co-operation with Belarus, Beijing’s defence minister Li Shangfu has said during a meeting with dictatorial leader Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk.

Mr Li said “the purpose of my visit to Belarus is precisely the implementation of important agreements at the level of heads of state and the further strengthening of bilateral military co-operation”.

Neither side gave details of what the co-operation will entail, but the two countries have agreed to hold joint military exercises next year.

Mr Lukashenko said on Thursday that China’s military assistance would not be directed against third countries, adding: “We need to secure our states and our peoples. We are absolute supporters of a multipolar world, territorial integrity and unity of the borders and territories established after the Second World War.”

Belarusian analyst Valery Karbalevich told Reuters that the visit of the Chinese defence minister is “an important signal not only to the EU and the US, but also to Ukraine”.

“With this visit, China marks the scope of its military interests and shows that it is interested in building up ties with Minsk and Moscow, including military co-operation, despite the dissatisfaction of Western countries,” he told The Associated Press.

“This is also a signal to Ukraine that the prolongation of the war can force China to take one side.”

US sanctions four FSB-linked individuals over Alexei Navalny poisoning

Thursday 17 August 2023 16:41 , Andy Gregory

The United States has imposed sanctions on four Russian individuals it accused of being involved in the 2020 poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

The US Treasury Department in a statement said the four hit with sanctions are linked to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), with the State Department also set to announce visa restrictions.

“Today we remind Vladimir Putin and his regime that there are consequences not only for waging a brutal and unprovoked war against Ukraine, but also for violating the human rights of the Russian people,” said the department’s under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Brian Nelson.

“The assassination attempt against Aleksey Navalny in 2020 represents the Kremlin’s contempt for human rights, and we will continue to use the authorities at our disposal to hold the Kremlin’s willing would-be executioners to account.”

Navalny, who in the 2010s brought tens of thousands of people onto the streets, was detained in January 2021 after returning to Moscow from Germany where he had been treated for what Western doctors said was poisoning by a Soviet-era nerve agent.

The Kremlin, which at one point accused him of working with the CIA to undermine Russia, denied any involvement in what happened to him and denies persecuting Navalny.

Russia aiming to mass produce copy of Iranian attack drone, report suggests

Thursday 17 August 2023 16:16 , Andy Gregory

Russia is making steady progress toward its goal of mass producing a type of Iranian attack drone that could travel more than 1,000 miles and target Ukrainian cities, the Washington Post has reported, citing leaked documents about the plan.

Moscow is working on its own version of the Shahed-136, despite delays and sanctions that impact components needed from other countries, according to the documents obtained by a source involved in the work at the Russian Republic of Tatarstan’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone.

The report highlights Russia’s efforts to build its own drone factory, where it aims to manufacture 6,000 drones capable of launching coordinated “swarm attacks” by the summer of 2025. The documents suggest the Russian facility is about a month behind schedule.

Sunak praises ‘Saudi leadership on Ukraine’

Thursday 17 August 2023 15:52 , Andy Gregory

Rishi Sunak has highlighted Saudi Arabia’s “positive leadership on Ukraine” in a phone call with Mohammed bin Salman, Downing Street has said.

The prime minister “highlighted Saudi Arabia’s constructive and positive leadership on Ukraine following the recent talks in Jeddah and the leaders agreed on the importance of allies working together to end the bloodshed in Ukraine and support a just and lasting peace”, a No 10 spokesperson said.

She added: “The prime minister welcomed progress on the conflict in Yemen, where the UK will continue to back efforts to extend the ceasefire and alleviate the humanitarian crisis.

“The prime minister and crown prince said they would continue working closely together to progress UK-Saudi co-operation and looked forward to meeting in person at the earliest opportunity.”

In Anne Frank’s Amsterdam, Ukrainian children’s war diaries go on show in City Hall

Thursday 17 August 2023 15:31 , AP

The city where Anne Frank wrote her World War II diary while hiding with her family from the brutal Nazi occupation is hosting an exhibition about the Ukraine war with grim echoes of her plight more than three quarters of a century later.

The exhibition that opened at Amsterdam City Hall on Thursday offers a vision of the war in Ukraine as experienced by children caught in the devastating conflict.

“This exhibition is about the pain through the children’s eyes,” Khrystyna Khranovska, who developed the idea, said at the opening. “It strikes into the very heart of every adult to be aware of the suffering and grief that the Russian war has brought our children,” she added.

“War Diaries,” includes writings like those that Anne Frank penned in the hidden annex behind an Amsterdam canal-side house, but also modern ways Ukrainian children have recorded and processed the traumatic experience of life during wartime, including photos and video.

 (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

The Killers booed after bringing Russian fan on stage during Georgia concert

Thursday 17 August 2023 14:57 , Andy Gregory

Israel clinches largest-ever defence deal with Germany

Thursday 17 August 2023 14:33 , Andy Gregory

Israel has secured its largest-ever defense deal selling a sophisticated missile defense system to Germany for £2.75bn after the United States approved the deal, the Israeli defence ministry has said.

Although Israel has long had close economic and military links with western European countries, the deal with Germany could draw the attention of Russia, which Israel has maintained working relations with throughout the war in Ukraine.

Israel has repeatedly rebuffed requests to sell arms to Ukraine for fear of antagonising Russia.

Germany will buy the advanced defense system, coined Arrow 3, which is designed to intercept long-range ballistic missiles. Israel sought approval for the deal from the US State Department because the system was jointly developed by the two countries.

Ukraine having ‘real successes’ in degrading Russia’s military, says expert

Thursday 17 August 2023 14:09 , Andy Gregory

Ukraine is having “real successes” in degrading Russia’s military capabilities, which is “going to matter in the long-term a lot more than taking a village here or a town there”, an expert has said.

“We tend to fixate on territorial movements of the battle lines, because it’s something we can track,” Mark Galeotti, director of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, told The Independent. “But really if you think about it, the goal of war is to deprive the enemy of the will and capacity to keep fighting.

“ If you think of it in these terms, actually the Ukrainians are making real successes in degrading Russian capabilities, in terms of blasting supply lines and depots, destroying artillery pieces at a much quicker rate than they can replenish.”

“If we of this in the context of a war that’s going to last at least another year and quite possibly even longer, actually what Ukraine’s doing is going to matter in the long term a lot more than taking a village here or a town there,” he added.

While winter should give Russia a chance to replenish its stocks, Moscow is “increasingly relying on older artillery pieces that have been pulled out of stockpiles, rather than cutting-edge new systems, whereas the Ukrainians are getting cutting-edge new systems” such as the British AS90 self-propelled howitzer, Mr Galeotti said.

“So although one can be disappointed about the counteroffensive in the short term, in the long-term it’s leading to a situation where, come next spring, the Ukrainians are going to increasingly be fielding a competent 21st century army, while the Russians are fielding a 20th century army.”

Attacks on Russian soil could be ‘playing into Russia’s hands’, expert warns

Thursday 17 August 2023 13:48 , Andy Gregory

As it broadens its focus away from the fronline, Ukraine appears to have been adopting asymmetric tactics, such as the use of cheap drones to hit the Black Sea fleet and targets within Russia, such as Moscow and Belgorod.

While Ukraine rarely claims responsibility for such attacks, officials are happy to play up the impact on the Kremlin and say that more attacks will be forthcoming.

“It’s not just about taking territory, it’s about the psychological impact, it’s about degrading Russia’s logistic capabilities,” Dr Marina Miron, of King’s College London’s war studies department, told The Independent.

However, Dr Miron cautioned that attacks on Russian soil “might well be playing into Russia’s hands” by seemingly “reinforcing” Mr Putin’s narrative of the war, and lending him justification for a further mobilisation of citizens, while alienating Western allies fearful of escalation.

“From the information war perspective, it’s a double edged sword,” Dr Miron added.

Experts warn Ukraine’s frontline push is being damaged by West

Carlsberg boss ‘shocked’ by seizure of Russian business

Thursday 17 August 2023 12:43 , PA

The chief executive of brewing giant Carlsberg has said he was “shocked” when Vladimir Putin seized its business there.

Cees ’t Hart said the company had agreed a deal to sell its Russian operations in late June, but just weeks later a presidential decree transferred the business to the Russian Federal Agency for State Property Management.

August Graham has the full story:

Carlsberg boss ‘shocked’ by seizure of Russian business

ICYMI: Ukraine’s intelligence service claims responsibility for Crimean Bridge drone attack

Thursday 17 August 2023 12:35 , Andy Gregory

Ukraine’s security services have claimed responsibility for an attack on the vital bridge connecting Crimea to Russia last month.

The country’s intelligence bureau, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), said it used remotely controlled sea drones carrying 850kg of explosives to target the Crimean Bridge, a critical supply link built by Vladimir Putin in 2018.

The drone strike on 17 July damaged the bridge and killed two civilians, according to Russian officials.

Ukraine does not usually claim responsibility for such attacks, but spy chief Vasyl Maliuk confirmed the security services’ involvement in an interview with CNN and warned the Russian president that more similar strikes will follow.

Mr Maliuk said the drones called “Sea Baby” were developed internally by the SBU, which has now released footage to CNN showing the pilot’s screen moments before the attack alongside CCTV of the immediate aftermath.

My colleague Maanya Sachdeva has the full report:

Ukraine’s intelligence service claims responsibility for Crimean Bridge drone attack

Up to Ukraine to decide when conditions are right for negotiations, says Nato chief

Thursday 17 August 2023 12:16 , Andy Gregory

It is up to Ukraine to decide when the conditions are right to join any peace negotiations, Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg has said, emphasising the alliance’s unchanged stance in the wake of recent comments by a senior colleague.

“It is the Ukrainians, and only the Ukrainians, who can decide when there are conditions in place for negotiations, and who can decide at the negotiating table what is an acceptable solution,” Mr Stoltenberg said at a conference in Norway.

The statement followed remarks by Mr Stoltenberg’s chief of staff, Stian Jenssen, who said on Tuesday that Ukraine may ultimately give up territory to Russia as part of a deal to end the war. Mr Jenssen subsequently said he regretted his comments.

“His message, and which is my main message, and which is Nato’s main message, is, firstly, that Nato’s policy is unchanged – we support Ukraine,” Mr Stoltenberg said.

What are hypersonic missiles and how powerful are they?

Thursday 17 August 2023 12:02 , Andy Gregory

Russia is in the process of equipping its new nuclear submarines with hypersonic Zircon missiles, the head of Russia’s largest shipbuilder has said.

“Multi-purpose nuclear submarines of the Yasen-M project will... be equipped with the Zircon missile system on a regular basis,” Alexei Rakhmanov, chief executive officer of the United Shipbuilding Corporation, told RIA. “Work in this direction is already underway.”

Yasen-class submarines, also known as Project 885M, are nuclear-powered cruise missile submarines built to replace Soviet-era nuclear attack submarines as part of a programme to modernise the Russian navy’s fleet.

Sea-based Zircon hypersonic missiles have a range of 560 miles and can travel at several times the speed of sound, making them extremely difficult to defend against them.

My colleagues Joe Sommerlad and Matt Mathers have more details here:

What are hypersonic missiles and how powerful are they?

Ukrainian artist paints group portraits for refugees to gift to UK hosts

Thursday 17 August 2023 11:24 , PA

A Ukrainian artist who paints family portraits for refugees to give to their UK hosts said she feels she is “doing something important” by “immortalising” Britons’ generosity and the impact of the war, reports Aisling Grace.

Olha Son, 35, fled Ukraine and moved in with a host family in Cornwall, before beginning to accept commissions from Ukrainian refugees who wanted to thank their British host families with a painting.

Ms Son has created numerous artworks showing Britons sheltering Ukrainian refugees with an umbrella decorated with a Union flag, which she said makes “almost 100% of the Brits cry”.

She said: “It’s like immortalising this phenomena of a British family who made a decision to open their doors to strangers from a different country, a different culture, in order to help in such a devastating situation as the war.”

Ukrainian artist paints group portraits for refugees to gift to UK hosts

No change seen in Russia’s nuclear posture, says Nato chief

Thursday 17 August 2023 11:04 , Andy Gregory

Nato has not detected any changes to Russia's nuclear forces and has seen no reason to reconsider its own corresponding setup, the military alliance’s chief Jens Stoltenberg has said.

“We haven’t seen any changes in their nuclear forces that trigger us to change our forces and the way those are arranged. So far we haven’t seen anything that demands that from our side,” Mr Stoltenberg told reporters in Norway.

 (EPA)
(EPA)

Russia fines Google for refusing to delete content about Ukraine war

Thursday 17 August 2023 10:35 , Andy Gregory

Russia has fined Google the equivalent of £25,000 for refusing to delete content Moscow claimed was fake information about its war in Ukraine, state news agencies reported.

It is merely the latest effort by Russia in its crackdown on information about its 16-month war in Ukraine, with social media site Reddit also fined for the first time on Tuesday.

Watch: Russian navy officers point guns at crew after ordering cargo ship in Black Sea to halt

Thursday 17 August 2023 10:10 , Andy Gregory

Pressure on Ukraine to achieve ‘Hollywood’-style breakthrough against Russia ‘unrealistic’, say experts

Thursday 17 August 2023 09:48 , Andy Gregory

Western pressure on Ukraine’s counteroffensive to achieve a “Hollywood”-style breakthrough against Russia’s forces is “unrealistic” and Kyiv’s allies must be prepared for the war to “drag on far longer” than they imagined, experts have said.

With rains expected to muddy the battlefield in areas of the south and east of the country – including Zaporizhzhia – as soon as September, the “odds are getting longer” on the “triumphant breakthrough” many in the West were hoping for, analysts have told The Independent.

While Kyiv has made some advances and reclaimed a number of towns and villages, progress has been slow. However, Ukrainian forces are having “real successes” in degrading Russia’s military capabilities and zapping the morale of its increasingly stretched forces.

Those efforts to hit supply lines, and destroy weapons depots and artillery pieces, are “going to matter in the long-term a lot more than taking a village here or a town there”, said Mark Galeotti, director of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy – who still did not rule out a surprise breakthrough by Kyiv’s forces.

“Although one can be disappointed about the counteroffensive in the short term, in the long term it’s leading to a situation where, come next spring, the Ukrainians are going to increasingly be fielding a competent 21st-century army – while the Russians are fielding a 20th-century army,” he added.

You can read the full report here:

Experts warn Ukraine’s frontline push is being damaged by West

FSB 'thwarts attack' on comms station at uranium-enriching town in Siberia

Thursday 17 August 2023 09:29 , Andy Gregory

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claims to have thwarted a planned attack on communications stations in a uranium-enriching town in Siberia, Russian state news agencies reported.

The FSB claimed to have detained two members of the “Citizens of the USRR” collective, who supposedly planned to blow up communications stations of the state-controlled telecoms operator Rostelecom and the TransTelecom telecommunications company.

The “Citizens of the USRR,” a collective name for disparate groups, was deemed extremist by Russia’s justice ministry in 2022.

The purported attack is claimed to have been targeting Zelenogorsk, a town of around 65,000 people in the Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk, which has been involved since Soviet times in enriching uranium for Russia’s nuclear programme. It still remains a closed town, requiring a special entry permit to enter.

EU diverts funds aimed at Russia and Belarus towards Ukraine and Moldova

Thursday 17 August 2023 09:11 , Andy Gregory

The EU has transferred €135m (£115m) initially allocated for programmes with Russia and Belarus towards strengthening cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova, Brussels has announced.

“The decision ... is the result of the brutal war of Russia against Ukraine”, said the EU’s commissioner for cohesion and reforms, Elisa Ferreira.

The EU also decided that regions in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Poland which were supposed to participate in cooperation programs with Russia and Belarus may participate in other existing programs.

Wagner mercenaries issue chilling message on Poland’s doorstep: ‘We are here’

Thursday 17 August 2023 08:50 , Andy Gregory

Our world affairs editor Kim Sengupta reports from the Suwalki Gap:

Thousands of battled-hardened Wagner fighters arrived in Belarus under a deal ending the attempted coup against Vladimir Putin by the group’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. No one thought that we had seen the last of them.

The mercenaries have moved towards the city of Grdno, according to the Polish military, and set up camp in the Brestsky area around six miles (10km) from Poland’s border.

And now, in a menacing turn, posters have begun to appear stuck next to Polish border posts with pictures of the fighters holding up signs in English saying “We are here. PMC [private military company] Wagner Group: Join us” with a QR code for would-be recruits. They have also appeared in Warsaw and Krakow. Poland’s interior minister Mariusz Kaminski said two Russians have been arrested over the matter.

Krakow is popular with British and other Western holidaymakers. Videos are circulating on social media of the poster being torn down by local people. Lukasz Wantuch, a councillor in Krakow, who published one of the photos said: “This is a provocation and this is happening here in Krakow”. Pyotr Komorowski, a student, said: “The aim is obvious, to scare tourists. That’s why they need to be removed quickly”.

Wagner mercenaries issue chilling message on Poland’s doorstep: ‘We are here’

Russia claims to shoot down drone over Belgorod

Thursday 17 August 2023 08:32 , Andy Gregory

Russia’s defence ministry claims to have thwarted a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian territory, the state-backed RIA news agency reported.

Interfax also said a drone had been downed over Russia’s southern Belgorod region, citing the defence ministry.

Ukraine has exported 820,000 tonnes of grain via Danube ports this month

Thursday 17 August 2023 08:21 , Andy Gregory

Ukraine exported 820,000 metric tonnes of grain in the first half of August via its ports on the Danube River, which is currently its main export route, the APK-Inform consultancy has said.

No comparative figures for previous periods were offered, but the data provides some insight into the extent to which Kyiv has been forced to adapt its export business in the face of Russia’s war.

Ukraine traditionally uses the Black Sea ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv to export most of its grain, but it was forced to switch to the Danube after Russia pulled out of the UN-brokered deal to keep those routes open in mid-July.

However, the exports through Danube could be affected by the recent Russian attacks on port infrastructure.

Kyiv said on Wednesday that Russian drone strikes damaged grain silos and warehouses at the river port of Reni on the Danube. Earlier this month, Russia attacked the Danube port of Izmail.

Ukraine’s first deputy farm minister Taras Vysotskiy told Kyiv’s national broadcaster that up to 5,000 tonnes of grain was destroyed in the attack on Reni.

Ukraine gearing up for winter with stockpiling fuel reserves – UK MoD

Thursday 17 August 2023 07:13 , Arpan Rai

Ukrainian efforts to build up fuel stockpiles will likely be successful in ensuring that it will have sufficient fuel reserves during the approaching winter period despite the consistent pressures of war, the British Ministry of Defence said.

The war-hit nation has been “effective in mobilising its mining sector to maintain output, ensuring a continuous supply of coal is available for thermal power and heating plants in the winter, with substantial gas stocks providing a further reserve,” it said in its intelligence update.

It credited Ukraine’s endurance last winter where the country weathered Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with the help of skilled workforce and “expertise needed to operate and maintain the power network, even in wartime conditions”.

The attacks will likely continue this winter, the MoD said.

Sweden to explore whether Russia sanctions are complied with

Thursday 17 August 2023 06:24 , Arpan Rai

Officials in the Swedish government have instructed the National Board of Trade to explore whether a rise in exports to countries bordering Russia was triggered by attempts to circumvent sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.

“The increase (in exports) has given rise to suspicions that the sanctions are not fully complied with,” the Swedish foreign ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine struggling to defend northeast against Putin’s forces – 'mostly convicts' – says general

Thursday 17 August 2023 05:59 , Arpan Rai

The situation on the Kupiansk front in the northeastern region of Kharkiv is growing more difficult for Ukraine, says senior general Oleksandr Syrskyi, with Putin’s forces led by Russian assault squads “consisting mainly of convicts”.

“Due to the complication of the situation in the Kupiansk direction, I worked most of the day with units that lead the defence on the approaches to the city,” General Syrskyi was quoted as saying by Ukraine’s Military Media Centre.

“The enemy is trying to break through the defences of our troops every day, in different directions, with assault squads consisting mainly of convicts, with the aim of blockading and then capturing Kupiansk,” he said.

Kupiansk, a town with a pre-war population of around 27,000, was seized by Russia in the early days of the February 2022 invasion before Ukrainian troops recaptured it in a lightning offensive last September that embarrassed Moscow.

Losing Kupiansk a second time would be a major blow to Kyiv’s battlefield momentum at a time when its summer counter-offensive has so far failed to deliver significant territorial gains, except for a few villages such as Urozhaine in Luhansk.

Russia controls nearly a fifth of Ukraine, including the peninsula of Crimea, most of the Luhansk region and large tracts of the regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Putin scrambles to convene currency control meeting over economic fears

Thursday 17 August 2023 04:47 , Arpan Rai

Vladimir Putin was expected to speak to Russian policy makers yesterday over currency controls as the rouble continued to slide despite an extraordinary 3.5 percentage point interest rates hike, in signs of Moscow’s full-scale war weighing down its own economy.

The Russian president was expected to hear proposals from the finance ministry to require exporters to convert a chunk of the country’s foreign earnings into roubles, two people aware of the developments told the Financial Times.

Proposals drawn up by the Russian finance ministry would require exporters to sell up to 80 per cent of their foreign currency revenue within 90 days after delivery, the newspapers reported. It also sought a ban on companies that refused to comply from receiving government subsidies.

This is the first such proposal on increased currency control being debated in the Kremlin since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched in February last year.

In recent months, Russia’s rouble has become one of the world’s worst-performing currencies and the country’s central bank has stepped in to try to halt the slide.

The rouble’s decline is “not very welcome” to the Kremlin, said Janis Kluge, a Russian economy expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

While not a full-blown crisis, “this is the closest we came to a real economic problem since the start of the war,” he said.

The chaos at the start of sanctions was far worse, but since then, the rouble’s decline “is the first time that something seems to be not so much under control,” he said.

US condemns Russia’s attacks on grain infrastructure: ‘Putin doesn’t care'

Thursday 17 August 2023 03:56 , Arpan Rai

The United States has slammed Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s grain infrastructure and called on Moscow to return immediately to the grain deal.

Russian president Vladimir Putin does not care about global food security, State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters after Ukraine earlier yesterday said Russia had attacked its grain storage facilities overnight.

Ukraine loses hope of using F-16 fighter jets this year

Thursday 17 August 2023 03:53 , Arpan Rai

A Ukrainian air force spokesperson has said Ukraine will not be able to defend itself using F-16 fighter jets during this autumn and winter against the continuing Russian invasion.

“It’s already obvious we won’t be able to defend Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets during this autumn and winter,” spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said at a joint telethon broadcast by Ukrainian channels.

“We had big hopes for this plane, that it will become part of air defence, able to protect us from Russia’s missiles and drones terrorism,” Mr Ihnat said, confirming Kyiv’s awareness of delays in receiving the warplanes it has been seeking from its Western allies.

Earlier in August, Mr Zelensky had announced training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets this month and said that the “delivery and combat use of F-16s by our pilots should take place as soon as possible”.

The supply of top-tier warplanes to the war-hit nation would be a signal that Russia’s invasion would end in defeat, Mr Zelensky had said. However, a former Nato commander has said the West’s promised assistance with F-16s for Ukrainian pilots has been slowed down as the war-hit nations’ allies do not wish to provoke Russia and launch a direct confrontation between nuclear powers.

US says working to identify alternative paths for Ukraine grain exports

Thursday 17 August 2023 02:30 , Maanya Sachdeva

The United States on Wednesday condemned Russia‘s continued attacks on Ukraine‘s grain infrastructure and said it was working with partners to identify alternative options to ensure Ukrainian grain exports.

“The United States ... calls for Russia to immediately return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said in a briefing, referring to a pact that had allowed export of Ukraine grain by the Black Sea.

Russia quit the deal on 17 July.

Russia Ukraine War (Odesa Regional Administration Press Office)
Russia Ukraine War (Odesa Regional Administration Press Office)

Patel said the US was seeking “to possibly find ways and corridors in which we can continue to get grain to the places it needs to go,” without providing details. He added that Washington has not seen any indication from the Russians that they wanted to go back to the deal.

Why tensions have been growing along NATO’s eastern border with Belarus

Thursday 17 August 2023 01:20 , Maanya Sachdeva

Poland is deploying thousands of troops to its border with Belarus, calling it a deterrent move as tensions between the two neighbors ratchet up.

Those tensions between Poland — a NATO and European Union country — and Belarus, which is Russia’s ally in its war on Ukraine, have been building up in recent months on the border.

Here is why:

Why tensions have been growing along NATO’s eastern border with Belarus

Putin accuses West of ‘adding fuel to fire’ with conflict in Ukraine

Thursday 17 August 2023 00:20 , Maanya Sachdeva

Vladimir Putin has accused Western countries of adding ‘fuel to the fire’ by funding the conflict in Ukraine.

Addressing participants of an international security forum, the Russian president shifted the blame for Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Putin said countries that were “pumping billions of dollars into the neo-Nazi regime” were “igniting the conflict even more, to draw other states into it.”

It comes as experts told The Independent that Western pressure on Ukraine’s counteroffensive to achieve a “Hollywood”-style breakthrough against Russia’s forces is “unrealistic.”

Watch the video here;

ICYMI: Warning as unexploded Russian mines wash up on Europe’s tourist beaches

Wednesday 16 August 2023 23:20 , Maanya Sachdeva

Russian mines are washing up on busy Black Sea tourist beaches, frequently exploding, and sometimes even killing holidaymakers.

As recently as Monday, a Russian mine exploded in the Romanian Black Sea resort of Costinesti, although it caused no injuries or damage, according to local reports. Meanwhile, another mine was also discovered in the water there.

My colleague Tara Cobham reports:

Warning as unexploded Russian mines wash up on Europe’s tourist beaches

Wagner mercenaries issue a chilling message on Poland’s doorstep: ‘We are here’

Wednesday 16 August 2023 22:20 , Maanya Sachdeva

Warsaw is sending 10,000 troops to its border with Belarus, with the mercenary group setting up camp and recruitment posters appearing announcing their presence. Kim Sengupta reports from the Suwalki Gap in Poland, a key spot in Nato’s defence of Europe, as provocations from Russia and Belarus also ramp up.

Full story for Premium subscribers here:

Wagner mercenaries issue chilling message on Poland’s doorstep: ‘We are here’

Sweden to explore whether Russia sanctions are complied with

Wednesday 16 August 2023 21:20 , Maanya Sachdeva

Sweden’s government said on Wednesday it had instructed the National Board of Trade to explore whether a rise in exports to countries bordering Russia was triggered by attempts to circumvent sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.

“The increase (in exports) has given rise to suspicions that the sanctions are not fully complied with,” the Swedish foreign ministry said in a statement.

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