UFC Vegas 66 odds, betting: How to bet Sean Strickland-Jared Cannonier main event
The UFC gives us one more Saturday night of fights before it breaks for the holidays and gears up for 2023. Two hard-hitting middleweights, Sean Strickland and Jared Cannonier, headline UFC Vegas 66. Despite ranking third in the division and four spots higher than Strickland, Cannonier enters this bout as a slight (-105) underdog. Both fighters are coming off losses to the division's elite. Cannonier dropped a unanimous decision to former champion Israel Adesanya in July, while Strickland got knocked out by current champion Alex Pereira on the same card. Strickland likely has a higher ceiling between the two fighters, but can we trust him with our money against a fighter of Cannonier's caliber? Here's how I bet the final main event of 2022.
Sean Strickland (-115) vs. Jared Cannonier (-105)
Strickland has all the tools of a title contender. He is well-rounded, has power for the division, throws with good volume and has 85% takedown defense. His path to victory is finding his range with his jab and peppering Cannonier from the outside. Cannonier works more patiently, to a fault sometimes, and picks his spots to crash the distance and go to work with combinations and elbows from close quarters.
Distance management will dictate the winner of this fight in a perfect contrast of styles. Cannonier holds the power edge and is the more explosive striker. Four of his five middleweight wins came via finish, while four of Strickland's five needed to be decided by the judges. As a result, Strickland will rely on a more disciplined approach for all five rounds, where he has to stay out of danger and pile up points through his typical high output. Strickland outlands Cannonier on average by almost two significant strikes per minute (5.54-3.73), but he is also the much more hittable fighter, making him vulnerable to the big shot. It ultimately cost him against Pereira and will likely have him suffering a similar fate against Cannonier's power.
Considering the fight will come down to distance management, Cannonier being the fighter with better footwork is a crucial advantage. The longer the war lasts, the more difficult it will be for Strickland to avoid heavy exchanges. Cannonier can also use his leg kicks to cut off the cage and make Strickland more stationary, allowing Cannonier to close quickly and force his opponent to fight on his terms.
If Strickland survives all five rounds, he will likely get his hand raised based on historically being the much more active fighter. However, I think he gets put away over the duration of the fight more often than not, creating value on the Cannonier side at this price. When the underdog has more paths to victory and is far more likely to finish the fight, it's a bet I am comfortable making most of the time. This matchup is an aggressive challenge for Strickland. I respect him for taking the fight, but durability is always an added concern after a knockout loss. Cannonier inside-the-distance props have value, but my best bet is to play the moneyline since we are getting a solid price.
The bet: Cannonier (-105)
Stats provided by ufcstats.com.
