UFC odds: Here's one early Fight Night undercard bet to jump on
UFC 290 delivered in every way imaginable. “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler wrapped up his career with a knockout win, Alexander Volkanovski flexed his greatness and a new flyweight champion was crowned in one of the most exciting fights of the year. Oh, and I can’t forget Dricus DuPlessis’ stunning upset of Robert Whittaker, setting up a massive title fight against Israel Adesanya.
Don’t expect as many storylines to emerge this week. We have a free weekend of fights on tap as the UFC heads back to the Apex for another fight night. The main event is significant in the women’s bantamweight division. No. 3 ranked Holly Holm needs an impressive win to hold her spot in the rankings, with Julianna Pena and Raquel Pennington expected to fight for the vacant title later this year. I will have my best bet on the headliner later this week. Here, I will break down a fight on the preliminary card that I wanted to bet as early as possible, as I suspect the odds will continue to rise.
Alexander Munoz -165 vs. Carl Deaton III +135
This being scheduled for the second fight of the card gives you an indication of the level of fighters we are dealing with. The loser of the matchup will likely have to find his next fight on the regional scene. Munoz dropped his first two fights with the promotion, while Deaton was finished by Joe Solecki in his debut back in February. Despite both fighters searching for their first UFC win, there is a glaring difference in how each fighter held up against UFC competition. Munoz is not a guy that’s ever going to turn heads, but he was very competitive in his last fight against Luis Pena. He lost a razor-close split decision (29-28, 28-29, 28-29), where he won the first round on all three cards. His opponent that night is no longer in the UFC, but did compile a 4-3 record against UFC competition at lightweight.
Carl Deaton's first experience in the big show did not go nearly as well. Deaton was submitted rather easily in Round 2 after landing only 1 of 12 significant strikes. More concerning is all of his strikes were thrown at distance, and he allowed Solecki 8:51 of control time in a bout that lasted only 9:55. Deaton allowed Solecki to take his back standing early on, and spent the first round surviving a rear-naked choke. Round 2 was more of the same, except Deaton’s takedown defense was exposed in the center of the Octagon in what ended up being the final sequence.
The massive grappling advantage gave us a preview of how his fight versus Munoz will play out. To be fair, Solecki is a guy with a win over Jim Miller and fought Jared Gordon to a decision. Munoz is certainly not on that level, so it’s a needed step down for Deaton. However, Munoz is the lead wrestling coach at Team Alpha Male. His striking is not refined to where he can effectively use it to set up takedowns consistently, but I’m pretty confident he'll get Deaton to the mat. Once he does, it’s his fight to win. In his last loss, Munoz struggled to close distance against the longer Pena, who held a six-inch height and four-inch reach advantage. Munoz will be much more comfortable and effective this time with both of those advantages on his side against the smaller Deaton. I think that’s a significant factor in a fight where the biggest advantage lies with the wrestling of Munoz.
We are getting Munoz at a good price because there are some red flags. He is coming off an ACL injury that forced a two-year layoff. That can be enough to steer some bettors away from laying -165, but I’m not going to let it chase me away from a solid bet. Everything points to him being 100% healthy, and any cage rust should dissipate quickly after the first takedown. Plus, Munoz showed a good low leg kick that will help against a fighter who really only seemed interested in throwing at distance in his last fight. I think it’s possible we see strides in Munoz's standup. He throws a nice 1-2 with an overhand left that just couldn’t land consistently against the rangier Pena. It’s possible he can put Deaton on the end of those punches. That would just be icing on the cake, because he only needs his wrestling to get the job done. The probability of Munoz putting a tenacious pace on Deaton that leads to several takedowns is relatively high, making a bet at the current odds pretty good value. Even factoring in the layoff, it’s a good buy-low spot on the favorite. Best Bet: Alexander Munoz -165.
