UFC betting, odds: Will rising star Erin Blanchfield have breakthrough against Jessica Andrade?

The fights return to the UFC Apex this weekend, bringing a welcomed pause to the endless debate of who deserves to be the UFC's highest-ranked pound-for-pound fighter. Whether you value Islam Makhachev's unanimous decision win more than Alexander Volkanovski's moral victory, neither may matter at this time next month. There's a strong possibility that former light heavyweight champion Jon Jones will close the door on the discussion if he can capture the heavyweight title next month at UFC 285. We will have plenty of time to handicap that one, so let's turn our focus to Saturday night's main event because these women truly deserve the attention.

The UFC may not have planned to fast-track Erin Blanchfield this quickly, but once Taila Santos withdrew from the fight, a bout with former UFC women's strawweight champion Jessica Andrade materialized quickly. Blanchfield, the 23-year-old flyweight, has started her UFC career with four straight wins, most recently a dominant first-round submission win over Molly McCann. This Saturday night, she gets the No. 3 ranked fighter in the flyweight division in a five-round main event.

The market has been moving toward Blanchfield, a +115 underdog, while Andrade hangs on to her position as the betting favorite at -140. So should we bet on Saturday night being Blanchfield's big moment, or is it too much, too soon for the budding superstar?

Jessica Andrade (-140) vs. Erin Blanchfield (+115)

One of the best things about this sport is watching young fighters leap into title contention with career-defining wins. My favorite was over a decade ago when Rashad Evans iced Chuck Liddell at UFC 88. After knocking Liddell out cold, there was no question that Evans had arrived. Projecting a fighter's ceiling during his or her rise through the rankings and how rapidly he or she will reach peak form is half the battle in handicapping MMA. So seeing the market backing Blanchfield gave me good cause to pause, but at only 23, I am betting she isn't ready for the smoke coming from the hands of Andrade.

This is a fantastic fight considering the contrasting styles. Blanchfield certainly has the grappling acumen to finish Andrade on the ground, while Andrade's overwhelming power and explosiveness will be a massive litmus test for Blanchfield's ability to perform under fire. Both fighters have clear paths to ending the fight, but I have more confidence in Andrade under adversity. That could be because Blanchfield hasn't been tested since entering the promotion, but Andrade's résumé is a who's who among the elite in women's MMA. She has battled with the best in the division, with her only losses in the last five years coming to current or former champions (Valentina Shevchenko, Rose Namajunas and Weili Zhang).

As the old saying goes, each round starts standing, putting the onus on the grappler to force her way into advantageous positions. Blanchfield uses her striking as a path to her grappling, but that's a dangerous route when facing Andrade. Once Blanchfield gets inside, she has good trips from the clinch and multiple ways to get her opponent to the mat. The problem is, I don't see it being that easy for her to get inside, and her striking defense isn't strong enough to avoid danger. Andrade will make Blanchfield feel her power in the pocket, and her lethal combination of volume and consistency will overwhelm the rising contender. Andrade has no problem taking a few strikes to force her way inside where she can put it on her opponents. Then, as the big shots accumulate, her cardio takes over, allowing her to swarm and break her opponent's will.

Blanchfield is a very special talent, but I can't walk away from Andrade at this number. I would bet Blanchfield is a future champion, but not in 2023. If this ends up being one of those career-defining moments where she surges into title contention, so be it. I'm happy to pay -140 to see it. My bet is on the Andrade moneyline, as this most likely ends up being one of those losses that helps Blanchfield better prepare for a future title run.