UFC betting, odds: Curtis Blaydes vs. Sergei Pavlovich main event offers classic clash of styles

Two massive fighters locked in a small cage until victory is claimed. That’s exactly what’s in store for us Saturday as the UFC heads back to the Apex. UFC Vegas 71 will be headlined by Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes, two heavyweight contenders knocking on the door of a title shot. No. 3-ranked Pavlovich (5-1 in UFC) is coming off a brutal first-round knockout of Tai Tuivasa at UFC 277 and has won each of his last five fights by first-round KO/TKO. The No. 4-ranked Blaydes (12-3-1 NC in UFC) also finished his last two opponents via TKO, although his last victory came as the result of Tom Aspinall injuring his knee. Despite 12 of his 17 career wins coming by knockout, Blaydes’ bread and butter is his wrestling. His seven-year UFC career has been spent climbing the ladder to title contention twice, only to be derailed by knockout losses to Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis. Recent improvements to Lewis' boxing have rounded out his skillset, but will it benefit him against a behemoth brawler in Pavlovich?

The betting market believes it will. “Razor” Blaydes is currently a -165 favorite in Saturday night’s main event, while the comeback on Pavlovich is priced at +140. Here’s who my money is on.

Curtis Blaydes (-165) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (+140)

I don’t want to oversimplify this fight, but it’s another classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Each fighter has a massive advantage in his specific toolbox, and your wagers will ride on whichever fighter you believe will weaponize his first. There are a few reasons my money is on the Russian wrecking ball.

Pavlovich has crushing power. When I rewatched his last fight against Tuivasa, I was taken aback by how Tuivasa’s body shifted when Pavlovich connected. Tuivasa has a solid chin, and Pavlovich got him out of there in less than a minute. As a general rule of thumb, grapplers have more success at these types of matchups. However, when a fighter has devastating power like Pavlovich, it can tip the scales. It impacts the approach of the opponent. Blaydes' recent setbacks have come via knockout, and the most recent loss to Lewis came while he was shooting for a takedown.

Will he aggressively shoot for takedowns early on against Pavlovich and risk getting clipped by one of his powerful uppercuts? Or does he try to methodically work his way in with his improved striking? Both are extremely dangerous propositions.

Blaydes' striking has looked significantly better the last few fights, but if he starts falling in love with his hands against Pavlovich, he is going to be waking up asking his trainer what happened. Blaydes’ recent strides on the feet will certainly benefit him in the future, but it could be a double-edged sword Saturday night if it provides him with a false sense of security.

Pavlovich’s only career loss came at the hands of Allistair Overeem in his UFC debut. Overeem exposed the Russian’s grappling vulnerability by pummeling him from top position for a first-round TKO. That's certainly a clear path to victory for Blaydes, but there is going to be a heavy price to pay to get there. Pavlovich has an excellent jab that sets up his pulverizing combinations, and his four-inch reach advantage will force Blaydes to telegraph his entries from distance. Once Pavlovich pressures, I see Blaydes resorting to his natural wrestling instincts, dropping his head and shooting for the takedown. That falls right into the powerful heavyweight's wheelhouse and puts Blaydes in danger of succumbing to a barrage of fight-ending uppercuts.

I have a great amount of respect for Blaydes and think he is destined to hold UFC gold at some point in his career. However, for the reasons above, I think the best way to wager on this fight is play Pavlovich by KO at +175. I see Pavlovich adding Blaydes to the list of his knockout victims, so my edge is greater at 36% implied odds (+175) than Blaydes' moneyline price of -165 (62% implied). I am smart enough to realize Pavlovich’s win condition is highly correlated to the fight ending in the first round, making it a wise bet to carve out some of your stake to play him to win inside Round 1 at +300. If you really want to gamble, Pavlovich won his last two fights in the first minute, and one of Blaydes' losses to Nnganou came only 45 seconds into the fight. I haven’t bet on it personally at this time, but the odds at BetMGM are +1600 for Pavlovich to win in the first 60 seconds.

The bet: Pavlovich by KO +175